PDF attached includes some highlighted “movers” in selected USDA reports we received today.
Corn synthetic: March 519 -520 around 11:25
Several surprises, notably a 3.3 bushel decrease in the USDA 2020 corn yield, upward revision to US soybean demand, lower than expected US December 1 soybean and corn stocks, not to mention a downward revision to the US corn 2019-20 carryout from 1.995 to 1.919 billion!
US corn 2020-21 corn carry 47 mil bu below trade guess
US soybean 2020-21 soybean carry 23 mil bu below trade guess
US all-wheat carry only 1 million bushels above average trade guess
USDA raised SBO for biodiesel by 100 and food use by 100 million pounds.
US soybean exports were increased 30 million bushels.
US corn for ethanol demand lowered 100 million bushels.
Argentina soybean production down 2.0 MMT to 48
Argentina corn production down 1.5 MMT to 47.5
Brazil corn down 1 to 109
Brazil soybeans unchanged at 133 MMT
Note winter wheat seedings were nearly 470,000 acres ABOVE trade expectations led by soft red winter class.
Global WASDE Corn End Stocks New Jan: 284M (est 284M; prev 289M)
– WASDE Soybean End Stocks New Jan: 84M (est 83M; prev 86M)
– WASDE Wheat End Stocks New Jan: 313M (est 315M; prev 317M)
– WASDE Cotton End Stocks New Jan: 113M (est 97M; prev 98M)
US WASDE Corn End Stocks Jan: 1552M (est 1600M; prev 1702M)
– WASDE Soybean End Jan: 140M (est 141M; prev 175M)
– WASDE Total Wheat End Stocks Jan: 836M (est 857M; prev 862M)
– WASDE Total Cotton End Stocks Jan: 4.60M (est 5.40M; prev 5.70M)
USDA Quarterly Corn Stocks Q4: 11322M (est 11973M; prev R 1919M)
– Soybean Stocks Q4: 2933M (est 2921M; prev R 525M)
– All Wheat Stocks Q4: 1674M (est 1619M; prev R 2158M)
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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