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Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 170,706 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 21,340 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year and 149,366 metric tons is for delivery
during the 2023/2024 marketing year.


through selling in US agriculture commodities on improving US weather forecasts and slow US export demand. StatsCan Canada area update was mostly as expected. USD was up 44 points and WTI crude $1.82 higher. August oil share made news highs overnight. Malaysia’s
markets are closed for holiday June 29. November soybeans are approaching major support levels while December corn today took out its 50-day MA. 


Midwest rainfall this weekend will be erratic before increasing mid next week into the following weekend, providing an improvement in topsoil moisture. The US Northern Plains, upper Midwest and eastern Canada’s Prairies will see timely rain. Temperatures will
be seasonable to warmer than average. Europe and the western CIS will be trending wetter for the balance of the week.


Soybean/Dec Corn ratio





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estimates as of June 28 (net in 000)




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Weather Inc.


  • U.S.
    Midwest will experience improving coverage of rain during the coming ten days to two weeks; however, the GFS model today is way overboard on some of the rain
    • Both
      the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting good coverage of rain for the driest areas in the Midwest next week and into the following weekend and that is probable, but some of the amounts seem a little high
      • It
        would not be surprising to see some of the rain reduced in future model runs, but relief is expected from the chronic dryness of the past few months
    • Soil
      moisture deficits remain significant across the Midwest and despite the model implication that sufficient rain will fall to restore normal  soil moisture – it will not
      • There
        will be sufficient rain to ease crop moisture stress and follow up rain will be needed
  • The
    lack of excessive heat in the Midwest expected in the next two weeks fits very well with our Trend Model and we should not expect any “prolonged” bout of excessive heat during the balance of the  summer
    • There
      will be warm periods and it will be warm enough to counter rainfall frequently, but enough rain should come along to  prevent the same level of stress developing as that which has occurred in recent weeks
  • Some
    corn production damage cannot be reversed in the heart of the Midwest, but if the rain falls as advertised in the next couple of weeks a cap will be put on the loss potential
    • Soybeans
      have not lost much production potential and could still be a big crop if weather in the next few weeks is close to normal or better
  • U.S.
    southwestern Corn Belt will be hot today into Friday with highs in the 90s to near and slightly above 100 from the Kansas and Oklahoma into central and southwestern Illinois and the Delta
    • The
      heat will abate after Friday except in the Delta where it will linger at least one extra day longer
    • The
      excessive heat will add to the crop moisture stress that is prevailing across these areas and especially in Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and a few neighboring areas where dryness and drought have been expanding most significantly, but as noted above “some” relief
      is forthcoming
  • Canada’s
    central Prairies are still struggling with moisture shortages and that will continue for a while
    • The
      next ten days do not look good for bringing significant moisture to the region
      • Crop
        moisture stress will continue in southern and eastern Alberta and central and western Saskatchewan with some of that stress to deepen and expand a bit over time
    • No
      extreme heat is expected, though temperatures will be a little warmer than usual
    • Today’s
      crop situation in the Prairies east of central Alberta has much variation occurring from one farm to another and in some cases one field to another
      • A
        good production area can be sitting across the road from an area suffering from missed rain
    • Assessing
      the losses will be very difficult and the Prairies need to be closely monitored because of the “potential” for improved rainfall in future weeks
  • U.S.
    Northern Plains, upper Midwest and eastern Canada’s Prairies will experience some timely rain to support normal crop development
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • West
    Texas rainfall is expected briefly this weekend and early next week as excessive heat finally breaks down
    • Recent
      hot and dry weather has depleted soil moisture and firmed up the ground enough to stress many crops and livestock especially in unirrigated areas
    • Cooling
      late this week and into the weekend will allow for some relief, although additional rain will be needed
  • Other
    areas in Texas will also get relief from the heat, but rainfall is not likely to be very well distributed leaving need for greater rainfall to support corn, sorghum, soybean, rice and cotton production
  • U.S.
    Delta will heat up and dry down briefly and then get timely rainfall for a while after that
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience a good mix of weather during the next two weeks
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest temperatures will be trending hotter late this week and into early next week with high temperatures in the 90s and approaching 100 Fahrenheit in the Yakima Valley
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada rainfall is expected to be favorably mixed over the next ten days supporting long term crop development potential
  • Argentina
    will experience a boost in rainfall Sunday into Monday, but relief in the west will be limited
    • Western
      Argentina still needs rain of its winter wheat crop planting and establishment
    • Eastern
      Argentina winter crops are favorably rated
  • Southern
    Brazil soil moisture is decreasing, but remains favorable
    • Brazil’s
      Safrinha crops are maturing and being harvested in a favorable manner and the weather will continue to cooperate with that process
  • Summer
    crop harvesting in both Brazil and Argentina should advance with little weather related delay.
  • Europe
    is expecting a favorable mix of showers and sunshine along with seasonable temperatures during the next ten days
    • Some
      increase in rainfall is expected and will benefit recently stressed crops, but more rain will be needed
      • Pockets
        of dryness will remain
  • Russia,
    Ukraine, Belarus, Baltic States and northern Kazakhstan will experience a good mix of weather over the next ten days favoring normal crop development
  • India
    will experience generalized rain in central and northwestern parts of the nation today through the weekend with Madhya Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan wettest
    • A
      follow up rain event is expected Wednesday through Friday of next week that will impact Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Uttar Pradesh as well as southeastern Rajasthan and Haryana
      • This
        system has been weakened from the previous forecast
    • Interior
      west-central through southern India will not get much rain during the next week to ten days and will need to be closely monitored for the lack of rain
  • China
    is expecting favorable weather in much of the nation
    • Moderate
      to heavy rain is likely in east-central and northeastern parts of the nation
    • Light
      rain is expected in north of the Yellow River, but the moisture will help to ease recent dryness and warm to hot temperatures