PDF Attached includes FI’s snapshot for USDA’s June 30 reports.


American weather forecast was the main focus today. US agricultures futures were lower (exception soybean oil) after the morning models called for additional precipitation for the second week of the forecast for dry areas of the US Midwest and parts of US
wheat growing areas. Wheat also additional pressure from easing concerns of Russia political instability. Global export developments remain light. Positioning ahead of the June 30 reports was noted.


the US WCB will be dry until later this week, but milder temperatures should slow condition declines bias the dry areas before rising temperatures start with the southwestern Corn Belt Wed-Fri.  ECB saw rain over the past few days. The Canadian Prairies will
turn drier over the next week. Europe and the western CIS will be trending wetter this week. USDA US crop ratings declined for corn and soybeans. For corn, they were down 5 points, lower than expected, to lowest in decades for this time of year (1988 lowest).
Soybeans were down 3 to 51, the lowest since 1996. The trade looked for US G/E corn and soybean ratings to be down 3, and no change for SW and WW ratings. Spring wheat declined 1 point and winter wheat was unchanged. See tables after the text for production


had a typo in our CP table for the US corn yield. It should be 173.0 bu/ac, same as what we had in the S&D published last week. We are at
50.1 for soybeans.


estimates as of June 27 (net in 000)



A map of the united states

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A map of the united states

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weekend looks wet for the Midwest. Below is the 60-hour forecast map.

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Weather Inc.


  • Not
    much change occurred overnight
  • West
    Texas rainfall is expected briefly this weekend and as excessive heat finally breaks down
    • Recent
      hot and dry weather has depleted soil moisture and firmed up the ground enough to stress many crops and livestock especially in unirrigated areas
    • Cooling
      late this week and into the weekend will allow for some relief, although additional rain will be needed
  • U.S.
    southwestern Corn Belt will be hot Wednesday into Friday with highs in the 90s to near and slightly above 100 from the Kansas and Oklahoma into Illinois and the Delta
    • The
      heat will abate after Friday except in the Delta where it will linger at least one extra day longer
    • The
      excessive heat will add to the crop moisture stress that is prevailing across these areas and especially in Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and a few neighboring areas where dryness and drought have been expanding most significantly
  • U.S.
    Midwest rainfall into this coming weekend will be erratic and little too light for serious changes to crops of soil moisture
    • Some
      increase in rainfall is possible during the middle to latter part of next week and into the following weekend
      • No
        general soaking is likely, but the coverage rain should increase sufficiently for some temporary improvement in topsoil moisture
  • U.S.
    Northern Plains, upper Midwest and eastern Canada’s Prairies will experience some timely rain to support normal crop development
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • Southwestern
    Canada’s Prairies (including southern and east-central Alberta and central and western Saskatchewan) will not receive significant rain during the next ten days, despite some impressive upper air troughs of low pressure pushing through the region
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada rainfall is expected to be favorably mixed over the next ten days supporting long term crop development potential
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest temperatures will be trending hotter late this week and into early next week with high temperatures in the 90s and approaching 100 Fahrenheit in the Yakima Valley
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will receive periodic rain and experience seasonable temperatures for a while benefiting all crops in the region
  • Outside
    of West Texas scattered showers and thunderstorms the U.S. southern Plains will experience erratic rain that will not likely bring much relief to dryness in South Texas, the Texas Coastal Bend or the Blacklands
  • No
    changes were noted in South America overnight
    • Western
      Argentina still needs rain of its winter wheat crop planting and establishment
    • Eastern
      Argentina winter crops are favorably rated
    • Southern
      Brazil soil moisture is decreasing, but remains favorable
    • Brazil’s
      Safrinha crops are maturing and being harvested in a favorable manner and the weather will continue to cooperate with that process
    • Summer
      crop harvesting in both Brazil and Argentina should advance with little weather related delay.
  • Europe
    is expecting a favorable mix of showers and sunshine along with seasonable temperatures during the next ten days
    • Some
      increase in rainfall is expected and will benefit recently stressed crops, but more rain will be needed
  • Russia,
    Ukraine, Belarus, Baltic States and northern Kazakhstan will experience a good mix of weather over the next ten days favoring normal crop development
  • India
    will experience generalized rain in central and northwestern parts of the nation today through the weekend with Madhya Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan wettest
    • A
      follow up rain event is expected Wednesday through Friday of next week that will impact Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Uttar Pradesh as well as southeastern Rajasthan and Haryana
    • Interior
      west-central through southern India will not get much rain during the next week to ten days and will need to be closely monitored for the lack of rain
  • China
    is expecting favorable weather in much of the nation
    • Moderate
      to heavy rain is likely in east-central and northeastern parts of the nation
    • Light
      rain is expected in north of the Yellow River, but the moisture will help to ease recent dryness and warm to hot temperatures
    • Xinjiang
      weather will be seasonable during the next ten days with temperatures a little milder than usual initially and then warmer biased in the second week of the outlook
    • Recent
      excessive rain in the south of China induced significant flooding in rice and sugarcane areas causing some decline in rice quality and delays in early rice harvesting
      • The
        situation should improve over the next ten days
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will experience more frequent rainfall next week that may finally bring some relief to the drier areas in western Thailand and Myanmar, although the situation will need to be closely monitored
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall will increase somewhat over the next ten days to two weeks offering some improvement to crop and field conditions after recent erratic rain and net drying
  • Philippines
    rainfall will continue favorably mixed for a while
  • No
    tropical cyclones are threatening the western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea or Indian Ocean today and none is expected for a while
  • Two
    tropical cyclones are expected to evolve off the Mexico west coast during the  coming week and both will either parallel the coast or move away from land
    • Some
      increase in southwestern Mexico rainfall I expected and that may lead to relief for sugarcane, citrus, coffee and a host of other crops
      • Some
        sorghum and corn planting will follow the rain
  • Other
    areas in Mexico will continue quite dry through the weekend with “some” increase in northwestern and north-central Mexico rain next week
    • Drought
      remains serious in parts of central, southern and western Mexico, but the developing monsoon will bring relief in July
  • Central
    America rainfall has been timely recently and mostly good for crops, although many areas are still reporting lighter than usual amounts
    • A
      boost in rainfall is expected over the next ten days
  • Drought
    continues to impact Gatlin lake and the Panama Canal shipments,  but some increase in precipitation is forthcoming
  • Eastern
    Australia is expecting rain early next week; including the dry areas of Queensland and northern New South Wales
    • Improved
      wheat and barley planting and establishment in unirrigated areas is expected
    • Sugarcane
      harvesting will be disrupted, but the moisture will be good for ongoing cane development
  • Southern
    Australia winter crops are rated favorable and expected to remain that way over the next two weeks as periodic rain and mild to cool weather impact those areas.
  • South
    Africa wheat, barley and canola areas will get some timely rainfall during the next week further supporting well-established crops
  • Remnants
    of Tropical Storm Cindy have “some” potential to redevelop over the western Atlantic Ocean, but the system will remain over open water and not threaten the United States