FI Morning Grain Comments 06/29/23

Jun 29, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USD
is higher and WTI crude slightly higher. FND deliveries are on Friday. USDA export sales were on the low end of expectations. Prices struggled to find some footing during the overnight hours before trending lower this morning ahead of the USDA grain stocks
and updated planting reports. The morning weather forecast didn’t offer too much in the way of any major changes. Look for positioning today. Malaysia is on holiday today.  China soybeans futures were 1.2% higher, meal down 0.2%, SBO
off 0.1% and palm up 0.7%. Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were 5-10 euros lower meal unchanged to 6.00 euros lower. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 112 points this morning and meal $2.10 short ton lower. . The US Northern Plains, upper Midwest
and eastern Canada’s Prairies will see timely rain. Temperatures will be seasonable to warmer than average.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of June 28 (net in 000)

 

Weather

7-day

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Hurricane
    Adrian formed off the west Mexico coast Wednesday, but it will move away from land
  • Tropical
    Depression 02E formed south of the Oaxaca/Guerrero, Mexico coast overnight and was expected to become a tropical storm.
    • This
      system will stay close enough to the Mexico coast to induce rain in some of the drought stricken areas in western parts of the nation over the next few days
      • Improved
        corn, soybean and dry bean planting conditions will result
      • Sugarcane
        and citrus conditions may improve as well
  • Other
    areas in Mexico will continue quite dry through the weekend with “some” increase in northwestern and north-central Mexico rain next week
    • Drought
      remains serious in parts of central, southern and western Mexico, but the developing monsoon will bring relief in July
  • Southwest
    U.S. monsoon pattern is not likely to evolve for at least another ten days limiting rain in the southwestern part of the  United States
  • Thunderstorm
    clusters that began in northeastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska overnight will be the first to move across the Midwest today and tonight producing some needed rain
  • A
    succession of thunderstorms will move from South Dakota and Nebraska through southern Iowa and northern Missouri to Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky during the next week to possibly ten days
    • Sufficient
      rain is expected to bolster topsoil moisture, reduce crop stress and begin to induce better corn and soybean development conditions
    • Rain
      totals will vary 0.50 to 1.50 inches and local totals over 2.00 inches through the weekend with another 0.30 to 1.00 inch and locally more occurring
  • Excessive
    heat that occurred from southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa to Texas Wednesday will shift to the east today and Friday bringing 90-degree highs and some extremes over 100 to eastern Kansas, Missouri and southwestern Illinois as well as the Delta, but
    readings will come back to a seasonable range after that
    • Crop
      stress will be high over these next two days until the rain and cooling begins
  • U.S.
    central and southern Plains heatwave this week has stressed livestock and some crops, but the extremes will go away this weekend
  • Cooling
    is likely in the U.S. southern Plains this weekend into next week and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in an erratic manner
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will get some rain periodically Friday night and Saturday night with a few follow up showers next week
    • Rainfall
      will vary greatly with some 1.00 to 2.00-inch plus amounts likely in the Texas Panhandle and a few northern counties in West Texas while 0.20 to 0.70 inch occurs in other areas.
      • Most
        of this rain is expected this weekend
  • U.S.
    Delta will be heating up and drying out into Saturday and then some showers and thunderstorms may evolve with some cooling next week