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crop ratings declined for corn and soybeans. For corn, they were down 5 points, lower than expected, to lowest in decades for this time of year (1988 lowest). Soybeans were down 3 to 51, the lowest since 1996. The trade looked for US G/E corn and soybean ratings
to be down 3, and no change for SW and WW ratings. Spring wheat declined 1 point and winter wheat was unchanged. See tables after the text for production updates.



two-sided trade for most commodity markets. Strength in many US ag markets eroded by mid-morning in part to a selloff in US crude oil. Earlier US weather and Black Sea concerns sent most CBOT ag commodity markets higher. Russia instability concerns support
wheat earlier but there was no evidence of a slowdown in Russian wheat exports. USDA export inspections were on the low side for soybeans, corn, and wheat. Global export developments were quiet over the weekend.


midday weather update, overall, was viewed as largely unchanged. Rain developed over the weekend across the western and northern Corn Belt but many areas missed out on widespread precipitation, including Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. The majority of the
US Midwest will be dry until later this week but milder temperatures should slow condition declines bias the dry areas before rising bias the southwestern Corn Belt Wed-Fri.  The Canadian Prairies will turn drier over the next week. 


estimates as of June 26 (net in 000)










7 days

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with low confidence



A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with low confidence


United States Seasonal Drought Outlook


Weather Inc.


  • Not
    much changed overnight; however, there is more evidence that the Gulf of Mexico may open as a moisture source next week and that could bring needed moisture into the eastern Midwest to help improve future rain events
    • There
      is also some additional evidence that the monsoon in Mexico will improve during July with some of that moisture streaming into the Rocky Mountains and eventually across a part of the Plains and into the Midwest
    • These
      changes do not suggest immediate relief, but suggest there is potential for change as time moves along
    • In
      the meantime, concern over low soil moisture will continue in the southwestern and central Corn Belt, despite some increased frequency of rainfall during the next two weeks
  • Soil
    moisture was becoming critically low across most of the northern and a part of the central Midwest Friday
    • Weekend
      rain brought relief to the eastern Dakotas, portions of Minnesota, northern Iowa and far northern Illinois, northwestern Indiana and parts of both Michigan and Wisconsin, but most other areas failed to get significant moisture
    • Some
      significant rain fell in central and interior eastern Kentucky
  • Very
    warm to hot temperatures in the southwestern and some central U.S. Corn and Soybean production areas during the weekend accelerated evaporation and crop stress expanded in that direction
    • The
      heat was replaced by some cooling during the latter part of the weekend, but the air remained dry and rainfall was restricted
  • U.S.
    rain during the weekend was most significant in the northern Plains where substantial amounts resulted varying from 1.00 to more than 3.00 inches
    • Sand
      Lake, South Dakota (located in north-central areas) reported 3.99 inches
    • The
      greatest rain fell from central through northern South Dakota through southern and eastern North Dakota to west-central and northern Minnesota
    • Significant
      relief to dryness resulted and a much-improved outlook for corn, soybeans, sugarbeets, wheat and other crops resulted
    • Some
      severe thunderstorms accompanied the rain resulting in a little damage from South Dakota and Nebraska into northern Iowa and northern Illinois
      • Crop
        loss should have been very low
    • Additional
      rain is expected periodically over the next week, although it will not be nearly as great and there is still some concern over northwestern North Dakota and northeastern Montana not getting much rain
  • Another
    round of significant rain is possible late this week into Sunday across the Midwest, but it will be scattered and erratic most days early in the period and perhaps greater late in the period
    • A
      majority of the Midwest will get rain at one time or another offering short term relief, but the southwestern corn and soybean production region will be driest leaving that region set for expanding dryness
    • Relief
      elsewhere in the Midwest will be temporary with 0.30 to 0.90 inch of rain expected and local totals of 1.00 to 1.75 inches
      • Northern
        and central areas will be wettest
      • The
        greatest rainfall will be limited to about 30% of the region
    • The
      relief will not last long and it will not be evenly distributed
      • Subsoil
        moisture relief is not very likely
      • Improvements
        in topsoil moisture are expected, but follow up rain will be extremely important
  • U.S.
    temperatures will be cooling down in the Midwest and northern Plains through Wednesday with 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit likely with some cooler readings in the far north and few warmer readings in the far south
    • Warming
      is expected briefly ahead of the late week rainfall with more hot temperatures coming to the southwestern Corn and Soybean production region
      • Areas
        from Kansas, Missouri and the Delta into southwestern Illinois will get back to the 90s and near 100 degrees Thursday and Friday ahead of the next wave of rain and cooling
    • Cooling
      will return normal to slightly cooler than usual temperatures during the weekend
  • Rain
    advertised for the U.S. Midwest next week will be erratic with some areas getting more rain than others and normal temperatures will be near to above normal
    • The
      environment would not be bad for crops if there was good soil moisture in the ground and no crop stress leading into the period.
    • Greater
      rain must occur
  • The
    bottom line for the next ten days includes an expansion of drought and dryness intensity in the southwestern U.S. Corn Belt and slow relief for northern, central and eastern parts of the Midwest, although most of the relief is expected to be temporary with
    a big need for more routinely occurring rainfall and mild summer temperatures.
  • Mexico
    drought will continue for one more week and then monsoon moisture is expected to quickly evolve next week finally bringing some relief to that nation
    • Corn,
      sorghum, rice, soybeans and many other crops will be planted aggressively as soon as significant rain falls