FI Morning Grain Comments 11/04/20

PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Equity
markets saw a turbulent overnight trade and USD lower, as results from the U.S. presidential election were far closer than polls predicted, leaving an outcome in doubt for days. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

There
has been a clear change in the Argentina weather outlook yesterday bringing greater rain to western parts of the nation during the weekend and especially next week. The moisture boost is consistent with La Nina events. The models today have been suggesting
eastern Argentina will receive below average precipitation over the next couple of weeks along with parts of Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul as well as parts of southern Paraguay. This is a classic response to La Nina and while crop and field conditions improve
in western and some far southern Argentina locations the east will trend drier.

            Brazil’s
weather also trends wetter in much of the nation during the Nov. 8-17 period with worry over dryness in center west and some areas of center south being dashed by the advertised greater rainfall.

 

A
more active weather pattern continues to be advertised in North America during the coming two weeks. The GFS model was a little too aggressive with some of the precipitation events. Too much moisture was advertised in western hard red winter wheat areas where
some showers might occur, but a general soaking is highly unlikely.

            Hurricane
Eta made landfall this evening in northeastern Nicaragua as a Category Four Hurricane producing 140 mph sustained wind speeds and inducing horrific damage. Excessive wind, a huge storm surge and torrential rainfall has been impacting the region for hours and
the damage is expected to be extensive. The storm is still expected to weaken as it moves through northern Nicaragua and central Honduras over the next few days. The storm or a spinoff from it will return to the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week and
move to Cuba and possibly southern Florida during the weekend. The storm’s movement after that is up for debate, but it may swing out over open water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a few days before turning back toward the southeastern United States mid-
to late-week next week. Confidence is very low after the storm impacts a part of southern Florida this weekend.

            Looking
at the model data, it looks as though Eta’s original storm center dissipates over Guatemala or Honduras late this week, but a new low-pressure center forms over northern Honduras and moves into the Caribbean Sea. There is a good chance that this will result
in a new named tropical cyclone instead of using Eta’s name for the storm as it moves across Cuba to Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and next week.

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Nov. 4:

• US
  Trade Balance
• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price

Thursday,
Nov. 5:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish monthly soybean and corn reports
• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• Guatemala
  October coffee exports
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysian
  Nov. 1-5 palm oil export data

Friday,
Nov. 6:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Saturday,
Nov. 7

• China’s
  trade data on soybeans and meat imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Brazil
selected export data for the month of October

Commodity
            October 2020    October 2019

CRUDE
OIL (TNS)       4,743,279       5,266,953

IRON
ORE (TNS)        31,192,800      34,136,907

SOYBEANS
(TNS)        2,492,896       5,076,259

CORN
(TNS)                 5,156,818       6,023,744

GREEN
COFFEE(TNS)          225,378         199,473

SUGAR
(TNS)           4,203,124       1,917,690

BEEF
(TNS)                 162,684         170,552

POULTRY
(TNS)              296,637         334,626

PULP
(TNS)                 1,451,319       1,319,933

 

Informa
US yield/production estimates

Corn
November 175.7/14.502; October 177.8/14.812

Soybeans
November 50.8/4.183; October 51.9/4.294

 

StoneX
US yield/production estimates

Corn
November 178.9/14.762; October 179.0/14.942

Soybeans
November 52.1/4.291; October 52.4/4.351

 

FI
US yield/production estimates (for USDA)

Corn
178.4/14.705

Soybeans
51.8/4.269

 

Macros

 

Corn.

• December
  corn futures were higher earlier this morning on uncertainty over the US elections and widespread commodity buying.  Commodities in general have been higher earlier this week in part to inflation hedging after polls favored a Biden win.  This morning gold
  and copper were lower while WTI rallied.
• Goldman
  Roll starts Friday, the fifth business day of the month. 
• CBOT
  corn open interest was up 10,151 contracts. 
• WTI
  was up $0.87 and USD 17 points lower. 
• China
  corn futures increased for the first time in three sessions. 
• StoneX
  sees Brazil’s corn crop at 111.1 million tons.  USDA is at 110 million.  Brazilian domestic corn prices eased again after appreciating 29 percent during the month of October. 
  
• Germany
  ASF: 114 cases since September 10. 
• A
  Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 4,000 at 945,000 barrels (925-956 range) from the previous week and stocks up to 156,000 barrels to 19.757 million.
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

• We
  heard South Korea’s KFA was in the market for one cargo for April 30 arrival.
  

 

 

Soybean
complex.  

• CBOT
  soybeans are higher in the non-expiring months on inflation hedging, South American weather turning slightly unfavorable with dryness across Argentina and parts of Brazil, and higher outside commodity markets.  China soybean futures were higher overnight,
  hitting highest level since July 2008 on concerns over domestic shortages. 
  
• Soybean
  meal rallied $5.10 basis the January. 
• Soybean
  oil prices earlier this morning were up sharply on higher palm oil futures as traders look for Malaysian palm inventories to sink to a three-year low.  China soybean oil and palm oil futures were both up 1.6%. 
  

• CBOT
  soybean open interest was down 5,352 contracts. 
• USDA
  Attaché estimated China will import only 95 million tons of soybeans during the 2020-21 crop-year after importing a record 98.5 million tons during 2019-20, citing the country already stockpiled soybeans last marketing year and they look for a draw in stocks.
  We calculated in early October that China will need to import just over 100 million tons of soybeans to keep up with expanding feed demand.  
  

• China
  crushers were thought to have bought 4-5 Brazilian soybean cargoes for first half 2021 shipment.  US interest was quiet.  China might be back in the US market for soybeans and feedgrains/DDGS post-election but a delay in election results may push China back
  from tendering until next week. 

• StoneX
  sees Brazil’s soybean crop at 133.48 million tons from 132.61 million tons previously.
  

• November
  soybean deliveries were 14 and registrations were down 74 (Cofco Chicago). 
  

• Offshore
  values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 24 lower and meal $2.40 lower. 
  
• Rotterdam
  soybean oil values were about 5 lower, rapeseed oil 8 euros higher, and Rotterdam meal mixed from this time previous session. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins were 122 cents on out our calculation (132 previous) compared to 139 last week and 155 year ago. 
  

• Malaysian
  palm futures were near a 10-month high on ongoing expectations for supplies to tighten in October and La Nina concerns causing flooding.  Peak La Nina may start in late November and last through January for Malaysia’s palm oil production areas.  Monsoon rains
  usually develop around November in Malaysia so with La Nina, wetter than usual season could create local flooding. 
  

 

USDA
Attaché estimated China will import only 95 million tons of soybeans during the 2020-21 crop-year after importing a record 98.5 million tons during 2019-20, citing the country already stockpiled soybeans last marketing year.  USDA official is at 100 million
tons for 2020-21 soybean imports.  The Attaché sees a gradual drawdown in stocks and production up 1 million tons to 18 million tons.  The Attaché is also looking for a higher rapeseed production from the previous year (13.5MMT).  Note other analysts are higher
than the Attaché for soybean and rapeseed production for 2020-21.  US soybean exports to China continue to face an additional 27.5 percent tariff.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds%20and%20Products%20Update_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_11-01-2020

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• None
  reported. 

 

Wheat

• Wheat
  futures were mixed to higher earlier on US election uncertainty, higher soybeans and lower USD. 
  
• China’s
  wheat auction earlier this week continues to be in focus as traders believe China will buy wheat from several outlets, including the US, to meet consumption requirements.  China is still expected to buy wheat from Australia over the short term despite political
  tensions. Meanwhile China wheat imports may increase 2.8 million tons this crop year to 7 million tons, according to the CNGOIC. 
  
• US
  wheat futures Paris (Matif) December wheat was down 0.25 euro at 205.00 euros. 
  
• Much
  of Ukraine’s grain crop areas are in good/satisfactory condition, according to APK-Inform.  Winter wheat had been planted on 92 percent of the intended area. 
  
• Soft
  wheat exports from the European Union and Britain in the 2020-21 season that started on July 1 had reached 6.89 million tons by Nov. 1, official EU data showed on Tuesday.  That was 29% below last year.
• French
  soft wheat shipments outside the European Union in October reached their highest monthly level for the season to 703,000 tons.  China was the largest importer of French soft wheat outside the EU in October, accounting for 524,000 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

• 3
  participants: Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat for March and April 2021 shipment. 
  
• Yesterday
  Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of barley. 
• Japan
  seeks 91,612 tons of milling wheat this week from the US, Canada and Australia. 
  

• Syria
  seeks 150,000 tons of wheat on November 9.  They were in on October 28 for 200,000 tons. 
  
• Turkey
  seeks 550,000 tons of wheat on November 11 for Nov 24 and Dec 18 shipment. 
  
• Lowest
  offer $286.20/ton:  Pakistan seeks 320,000 tons of wheat 3 for arrival by November 3 for arrival by the end of January. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation.