FI Morning Grain Comments 09/23/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WTI
crude oil was unchanged at 7:54 am CT, USD 33 points lower and Dow futures higher. 

 

Export
sales were withing expectations for soybeans, SBO and wheat, low end of expectations for corn and above expectations for meal.  Soybeans are higher led by another rally in soybean oil as traders try to make sense over yesterday’s confusion over US biofuel
mandate headlines.  Palm futures were up nearly 3%.  Corn is lower but a sharply lower USD may support prices. US biofuel blending proposals might be released sometime by the end of the week.  Wheat futures are higher on follow through buying, strong Black
Sea prices, and renewed global demand. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

7-day

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 23, 2021

• Some
  rain fell in Buenos Aires Overnight with central parts of the province getting 1.50 inches, but much of it was less than 0.25 inch.
• Argentina
  is still expected to be in a drier than usual mode for a while with restricted rainfall over the next ten days.
  
• Brazil
  weather was dry Wednesday, but everyone’s focus is on the potential development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the week next week and on into early October.
  
• Brazil’s
  rainfall should be erratic and light initially.
• India’s
  monsoon may begin withdrawing next week and more significantly in early October.
  
• The
  late season withdrawal will be good for winter crops, but has slowed summer crop maturation and harvesting in the north.
  
• China
  will see another round of heavy rain in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain in this coming week.
  
• That
  moisture in China will also be good for future wheat planting, but will delay all kinds of fieldwork until the ground firms up.
  
• Eastern
  Australia is expecting rain in the second week of the outlook
• Russia’s
  Volga Basin is getting much needed rain today and it may continue into the weekend – no general soaking is expected, but sufficient amounts (0.25 to 0.75 inch) will fall to improve topsoil moisture for planting, emergence and establishment of wheat, rye and
  barley
• In
  the U.S. some needed rain will fall in hard red winter wheat areas during mid-week next week that should improve planting conditions temporarily. 
• Tropical
  Depression 18 formed in the Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and was expected to slowly develop into a significant Hurricane in the coming week, but early indications suggest the system will stay northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and well east of North
  America
• A
  tropical cyclone has also formed near Guam that may become a significant storm in the next few days as it possibly moves toward Japan
• Tropical
  Depression Peter has dissipated and Rose will soon as well
• Tropical
  Storm Dianmu will move into Vietnam today and produce heavy rain in a part of the mainland areas of Southeast Asia

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Sept. 23:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Globoil
  India – international vegetable oil conference, day 1
• The
  UN Food Systems Summit
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Friday,
Sept. 24:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Globoil
  India – international vegetable oil conference, day 2
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, hogs and pigs inventory, poultry slaughter, 3pm

Saturday,
Sept. 25:

• Globoil
  India – international vegetable oil conference, day 3

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

USDA
soybean export sales of 903,000 tons were within expectations and included China (624,200 MT, including decreases of 132,000 MT), Mexico (85,300 MT, including 47,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), and Egypt (58,000 MT). 
Soybean commitment are running 34.5% below the same period a year ago.  Soybean meal old crop sales were 45,000 tons but new-crop was good at 216,400 tons.  On top of that shipments of meal were 244,800 tons, supportive.  Soybean oil sales were only 4,300
tons and shipments 600 tons.  Corn export sales were 373,000 tons, low for this time of year (2.139MMT were sold a year earlier).  Corn commitment this season are running 10.4% above this time last year.  All-wheat sales slowed to 355,900 tons from 617,100
tons previous week but were within a range of expectations.  Pork sales were 32,600 tons.