FI Morning Grain Comments 08/16/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WASHINGTON,
Aug 16, 2021- Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

USD
is higher, WTI sharply lower and US stocks lower.  Pro Farmer Crop Tour, NOPA, Inspections and Crop Progress will be in focus today.  US corn in on the defensive from follow through selling.  Wheat is higher from ongoing good global demand and concerns over
the French wheat & Russian wheat crops.  Soybeans are higher on follow through buying on Canadian canola crop concerns, spreading against corn and higher offshore product values. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUGUST 16, 2021

• The
  tropics are alive with storms today with three in the Atlantic Basin one in the eastern Pacific Ocean and one in the western Pacific Ocean.
  
• Florida
  will be impacted by Tropical Storm Fred and southern Hispaniola will be impacted by Tropical Depression Grace through Tuesday.
  
• Excessive
  heat is expected in the northern U.S. Plains and eastern Canada’s Prairies today ahead of a mini windstorm Tuesday into Wednesday that should precede some rain for parts of both areas later this week.
  
• The
  U.S. Midwest will eventually see rain in all crop areas at one time or another during the next two weeks limiting the potential for expanding dryness, although some drying is expected in the heart of the Midwest this week.
  
• Southern
  Europe turned hot and dry during the weekend and more is expected this week.
  
• Excessive
  heat occurred in southern Spain and some Mediterranean Islands during the weekend with extreme highs to 116.6 Celsius
• Balkan
  Countries are still too dry and not likely to get relief anytime soon
• Drying
  is also expected in eastern Ukraine, parts of Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan.
  
• Australia
  rainfall will be restricted this week except in coastal areas
• Both
  China and central and eastern India will be plenty wet this week
• Heavy
  rain fell in the lower Yangtze River Basin during the weekend with more than 8.00 inches occurring
  
• Heavy
  rain also occurred from southeastern Sichuan into Yunnan, Guangxi and Guangdong, China
• Xinjiang,
  China weather turned cooler during the weekend, especially in the northeast where some rain also fell
• No
  rain expected in Brazil citrus, sugarcane or coffee production areas this week and temperatures will be warm
• Weekend
  rainfall increased in parts of mainland areas of Southeast Asia, but not in parts of Thailand
  
• Western
  Argentina will continue dry
• West
  Texas received some beneficial rain, but parts of the region needs warmer temperatures

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Aug. 16:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Tuesday,
Aug. 17:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Wednesday,
Aug. 18:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• China’s
  second batch of July trade data for commodities, including corn, wheat, sugar and pork

Thursday,
Aug. 19:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases sugar and cane production data (tentative)
• USDA
  total milk, read meat production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Friday,
Aug. 20:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  country-wise import data for farm goods such as soybeans, corn and pork
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia
  Aug. 1-20 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  Cattle on Feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Commitment
of Traders

No
surprises this week

 

 

 

 

Macros

Canadian
Manufacturing Sales (M/M) Jun: 2.1% (est 2.4%; prev -0.6%)

Canadian
Wholesale Trade Sales (M/M) Jun: -0.8% (est -2.0%; prev 0.5%)

 

Corn

• US
  corn is
  mixed from ongoing soybean/corn spreading and lack of fresh US export developments.  Recall last week’s FSA numbers indicated the US corn planted area could be revised up more than 1 million acres later this season.  US weather appears to be non-threatening
  for the majority of the Corn Belt, with cooler and drier conditions this week, bias east. Excessive heat is expected across the Great Plains and eastern Canada today before turning windy Tuesday into Wednesday. 
  
• Tropical
  storm Fred will hit the Florida Panhandle today. Rain from this storm is expected to reach into the upper Delta and blanket the SE this week. 
  
• USD
  is higher, WTI sharply lower and US stocks lower.  Lower energies are expected to limit upside in corn and SBO. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• Qatar
  seeks about 100,000 tons of barley on August 18 for Sep-Nov delivery. 

• Turkey
  seeks 270,000 tons of barley on August 20 for shipment between Sep 1 and Sep 25. 
  

 

Soybeans

• Soybeans
  are higher in part to 132,000 tons of soybeans sold to unknown, Canadian canola crop concerns (heat today eastern areas), spreading against corn and higher offshore product values.  November canola is up 11.30.  Rotterdam vegetable oil prices are up sharply
  from Friday.  Malaysian palm oil production concerns supported the palm futures contract, which was up 53 ringgit. Cash palm rose $10/ton.  China futures were higher led by a 2.3% rally in soybean meal. 
  
• USDA
  announced private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2021-22 delivery. 
  
• Note
  the Pro Farmer crop tour already kicked off, with Ohio and South Dakota in focus.  Twitter feed #PFCropTour21
  
• NOPA
  is due out today.  We are at 160.0 million bushels for the soybean crush and 1.505 billion for stocks, compared to 152.4 million during June and 1.537 billion stocks previous month.  Trade estimates are below. 
  
• Argentina
  is on holiday today. 
• The
  USDA announced they plan to raise the average US food stamp benefits by about 25% from pre-pandemic levels. 
  
• Trade
  News Service: IL SBO basis 725 over, East 650 over, West 1750 over, and Gulf option. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading soybean oil 46 points lower and meal $3.60 higher. 
• European
  vegetable oil values were higher by 10-40 euros this morning.  Rotterdam soybean meal were about 2-4 euros higher. 
  
• AmSpec
  reported Malaysian palm exports for the 1-15 period down 21% to 540,853 tons from 684,615 tons shipped during the same period last month.  ITS reported a 24% decline to 528,736 tons. 
  
• Malaysia
  palm oil futures were higher on production concerns.

• China
  cash crush margins were last positive 101 cents on our analysis versus 87 cents late last week and also 87 cents around a year ago. 
  
• China

 

Export
Developments

• USDA
  On August 17 seeks 290,000 tons of veg oil for use in export programs. 210 tons in 4-liter cans and 80 tons in 4-liter cans or plastic bottles, for shipment Sep16 to Oct 15 (Oct 1-31 for plants at ports).
  
• South
  Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 3,700 tons of non-GMO soybeans on August 19 for arrival between Oct. 20 and Nov. 19.

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat is higher from ongoing good global demand (Algeria and Philippines) for wheat and (Jordan and North Cyprus) for barley,  and concerns over the French wheat & Russian wheat crops. 
  
• Paris
  December wheat is down 0.50 at 253.75.  The contract failed to test a contract high. 
  
• On
  Friday the Matif wheat traded 52,586 contracts, a large amount. 
• FranceAgriMer
  warned the recent rains across France likely negatively impacted crop conditions for soft wheat.  Uneven test weights were noted. 
  
• SovEcon
  lowered their Russian wheat crop estimate by 200,000 tons to 76.2 million. 
  
• Russian
  wheat cash prices rose $20/ton to $287/ton fob at the end of last week, according to IKAR.  SovEcon reported at $18/ton increase from the previous week to $286/ton. 
  

 

Export
Developments. 

• Algeria
  on Sunday announced they seek an unspecified amount of wheat on Tuesday for September shipment. 
  
• The
  Philippines seeks 280,000 tons of feed wheat on August 19 for October/November shipment.
  
• North
  Cyprus bought 30,000 tons of feed barley for Aug 15-31 shipment (282.80/ton c&f), Sep 1-15 shipment ($298.50/ton c&f) and Sep 15-30 shipment $293.50/ton c&f. 
  
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on August 19. 
• Japan
  (SBS) seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on August 18 for loading by November 30. 
  
• Bangladesh
  seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on August 18. 
• Pakistan
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on August 23 for Sep/Oct shipment. 
• Morocco
  seeks 363,000 tons of US durum wheat under a tariff import quota on August 24 for shipment by December 31. 
  

 

Rice/Other

• None
  reported