FI Morning Grain Comments 08/10/20

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The
soybean complex is starting the week mostly lower, corn mixed on bull spreading, and wheat mostly lower (upward revisions to Black Sea grain crop).  USD was 14 higher and WTI 53 cents higher and equities higher.  MPOB reported larger than expected end of July
palm oil stocks, although they are at a 3-year low.  AmSpec reported Malaysian palm exports for the Aug 1-10 period down 6.2 percent from last month to 429,937 tons.  Egypt’s GASC bought 64,500 tons of local soybean oil for October 1-25 delivery.  The third
month palm futures contract fell 49 points and cash was down $13.00/ton.  China vegetable oil prices shed just over 2 percent, meal was lower and soybeans up 32 yuan or 0.7%.  We look for a one-point increase in US corn, soybeans, and spring wheat conditions. 
Russian 12.5% protein wheat export prices fell $2.00 from the previous week to $205/ton, according to IKAR.  IKAR increased their outlook for the Russian 2020-21 grain crop by 1.5 million tons to 81MMT, in part to an upward revision to the wheat crop by 1.5MMT
to 81 million tons.  APK-Inform increased their Ukraine grain production by 1.5 million tons to 73.0 million tons.  Corn output was increased for Ukraine by 0.7MMT to 37.3MMT.  APK sees Ukraine grain exports at 51.8MMT from 50.6MMT. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

WEATHER
OF GREATEST INTERST

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
August 10:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions for soybeans, corn, cotton; wheat harvesting progress, 4pm
• ISO
  webinar on Covid-19/macro outlook for sugar
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on July end-stockpiles, production, exports
• Malaysia
  palm oil export data for August 1-10
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• Brazil
  Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Singapore

TUESDAY,
August 11:

• Brazil
  Conab releases area, production and yield data for corn, soybeans
• EARNINGS:
  Wilmar

WEDNESDAY,
August 12:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
• China
  CASDE monthly crop supply and demand report
• Vietnam
  data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in July
• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• U.S.
  soybean, corn acreage, noon
• EARNINGS:
  BRF, Marfrig
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

THURSDAY,
August 13:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• EARNINGS:
  JBS, Olam

FRIDAY,
August 14:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• EARNINGS:
  Golden Agri-Resources

SATURDAY,
August 15:

• Malaysia
  palm oil export data for Aug 1-15 from AmSpec

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

 

 

 

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn             
-172,820    -29,540    209,085        993    -62,257     36,037

Soybeans           
44,219    -17,942    141,433     12,432   -187,971     17,978

Soymeal           
-20,985     -1,521     85,798      8,687    -96,907        199

Soyoil             
48,333     10,784     85,831      1,982   -154,167    -16,210

CBOT
wheat           1,178       -520     89,060      8,524    -83,337     -5,815

KCBT
wheat         -25,811     -6,786     49,369      1,310    -25,166      5,004

MGEX
wheat         -22,000       -875      2,365         52     14,119      1,385

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat        -46,633     -8,181    140,794      9,886    -94,384        574

 

Live
cattle         38,179      4,556     83,657        965   -130,215     -4,133

Feeder
cattle        6,612      1,160      4,933        725     -5,223       -624

Lean
hogs           13,571      2,850     46,625      1,219    -60,886      1,694

Source:
CFTC, Reuters and FI

 

 

 

Macros

 

 

 

 

Corn.

• CBOT
  corn futures are mixed led by bull spreading. 
• Second
  day of the “Goldman Roll.”
• USD
  was 14 points higher as of 7:37 am CT and WTI up just over 50 cents. 
• We
  look for a one-point increase in US corn, soybeans, and spring wheat conditions. 
  

• Bloomberg
  on China: Some animal feed mills are replacing 20%-30% of their corn use with wheat after corn’s recent rally to five-year highs.
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

• None
  reported

 

Soybean
complex.

• The
  soybean complex is starting the week mostly lower.  
• MPOB
  reported larger than expected end of July palm oil stocks, although they are at a 3-year low. 
  
• The
  third month palm futures contract fell 49 points and cash was down $13.00/ton.  China vegetable oil prices shed just over 2 percent, meal was lower and soybeans up 32 yuan or 0.7%. 
  
• Egypt’s
  GASC bought 64,500 tons of local soybean oil for October 1-25 delivery. 
• Canadian
  canola prices are at a two-year high as China continues to find ways to import the canola vegetable oil despite political tension between both countries.  Reuters noted “Canadian canola exports to China fell 45% year over year during the 11-month period through
  June, however total canola exports have jumped 9%, helped by a tripling of sales to France and double the shipments to the UAE.”
• As
  of Friday, we last heard IL SBO was 75 over, East 100 over, West 50 over and Gulf 475 over.  Brazil was last 510 over and Argentina fob 350 over. 
  
• Feb-July
  Brazil soybean exports total 72.7 million tons, up 37 percent from 53 million year earlier. 
  
• Rotterdam
  values this morning showed soybean oil for the Sep/Oct position was unchanged from this time previous session, rapeseed oil down 7 in the nearby, and soybean meal when imported from South America 2-4 euros lower.  
  

• Offshore
  values this morning was leading CBOT soybean oil 17 lower and meal $1.50
  lower. 
• CNGOIC
  reported China sold about 53,000 tons of soybean from reserves, 84 percent of the 63,000 tons offered, an average price of 3,115 yuan per ton. 
  
• China
  sold 58,997 tons of soybeans from reserves on Friday, all that was offered, at an average price of 3,128 yuan per ton. 
  
• We
  heard China was an aggressive buyer last week buying US and Brazilian cargoes.  An estimate 60 cargoes traded hands, about split between the two origins. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 132 cents per bushel, and compares to 132 cents a week ago and 81 cents around this time last year.
  

• AmSpec
  reported Malaysian palm exports for the Aug 1-10 period down 6.2 percent from last month to 429,937 tons.  ITS down 4.8 percent at 426,797 tons.
  

·        
Malaysian reported end of July palm oil stocks at 1.7 million tons, 10.6 percent below June and below 2.38 million tons a year earlier.  Stocks were 24,000 tons above expectations.  Palm oil production
ended up higher than expected at 1.8 million tons, a 4 percent decrease from June. 

·        
Palm oil:  MPOB  

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Egypt’s
  GASC bought 64,500 tons of local soybean oil for October 1-25 delivery. 
  

–
30,000 tons of soyoil at 11,750 pounds ($735.75)

–
3,500 tons of soyoil at 11,750 pounds ($735.75)

–
5,000 tons of soyoil at 11,750 pounds ($735.75)

–
3,000 tons of soyoil at 11,750 pounds ($735.75)

–
15,000 tons of soyoil at 11,750 pounds ($735.75)

–
3,000 tons of soyoil at 11,750 pounds ($735.75)

–
5,000 tons of soyoil at 11,750 pounds ($735.75)

 

Source:
Reuters

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures
  are mostly lower on upward crop production prospects for the Black Sea region and good weather across eastern Australia. 
  
• Australia’s
  wheat areas saw good rain over the past week.  Southern Western Australia benefited from heavy downpours.  As much as 49 millimeters in some areas fell across that area on Sunday.  Additional rain is expected for much of the southern crop areas for the first
  half this week
• Russian
  12.5% protein wheat export prices fell $2.00 from the previous week to $205/ton, according to IKAR.  IKAR increased their outlook for the Russian 2020-21 grain crop by 1.5 million tons to 81MMT, in part to an upward revision to the wheat crop by 1.5MMT to
  81 million tons. 
• Russia’s
  AgMin reported Jan-Jun wheat exports at 12.4MMT, up from 10.6 year earlier. 
  
• APK-Inform
  increased their Ukraine grain production by 1.5 million tons to 73.0 million tons.  Corn output was increased for Ukraine by 0.7MMT to 37.3MMT.  APK sees Ukraine grain exports at 51.8MMT from 50.6MMT. 
  
• Ukraine
  to date (starting July 1) grain exported fell 31 percent from the same period year earlier to 3.5 million tons (5.1MMT year ago) as of August 10. 
  
• Jordan
  said they have enough wheat reserves to last 14 months. 
• Paris
  December wheat was down 0.25 euro at 178.00.  

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on August 12 for Nov-Dec shipment. 
  
• Pakistan
  seeks 1.5 million tons of wheat on August 18. 
• Syria
  looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Vietnam exported 3.9 million tons of rice during the Jan-July period, 1.4% below same period year ago. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on August 17 for October through December delivery. 

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 60,556 tons of rice from Vietnam and other origins, on Aug. 19, for arrival in South Korea between Dec. 31, 2020, and February 28, 2021.