FI Morning Grain Comments 08/05/20

PDF attached

 

Prices
are bouncing off steep losses posted on Tuesday, with exception of soybean oil amid lower Asian vegoil prices and a reversal in product spreading. 

 

• USDA
  announced 192,000 tons of soybeans for 2020-21 delivery to China. 
• The
  large declines in CBOT agriculture prices on Tuesday attracted global corn and meal import interest.  SK bought a combined 132,000 tons of corn overnight.  NOFI seeks rapeseed meal.  However, KOCOPIA passed on corn overnight. Japan is in for 3,000 tons of
  livestock wheat. 
• Corn
  OI was up 24,771 contracts on Tuesday, while CBOT soybean OI was up 9,825. 
  
• There
  were 219 SBM deliveries and 142 soybean oil.  CBOT soybean oil registrations increased 21 with 79 coming out of Bunge Dec., IL and 100 registered at Volga, SD. 
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil was down 51 MYR and cash shed $5.00/ton.  China soybeans were down 2%, and both SBO & SBM off 1.1%. 
  
• ANEC
  sees Brazil’s corn and soybean exports for August increasing 33 percent each, from last year.  
  
• France
  lowered their wheat crop to 29.7 million tons from 31.31 million tons last month, now down 25 percent from last year. 
  
• The
  aftermath of the blast in Lebanon leaves that country with less than a month of grain consumption. 
  

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
August 5:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• China’s
  CNGOIC to release supply-demand reports on corn, soybeans
• French
  Agriculture ministry’s 2020 grain estimates
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for August 1-5
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price

THURSDAY,
August 6:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

FRIDAY,
August 7:

• China’s
  foreign trade data for July, including imports of soybeans and meat
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

·        
The U.S. and China have agreed to high-level talks on Aug. 15 to assess Beijing’s compliance with the bilateral trade agreement signed early this year

·        
US Trade Balance (USD) Jun: -50.7B (est -50.2B; prevR -54.8B; prev -54.6B)

·        
US ADP Employment Change Jul: 167K (est 1200K; prevR 4314K; prev 2369K)

 

 

Corn.

• Corn
  prices are bouncing off contract lows on technical buying.  Lower prices are not out of the question but the trade seems to be taking a pause.  CZ20/CZ21 traded -40 on large 2020 US corn production, China buying new crop (2020-21 delivery), and expected large
  carry.
• USD
  is weaker, crude is stronger and equities are higher. 
• The
  large declines in CBOT agriculture prices on Tuesday attracted global corn and meal import interest.  SK bought a combined 132,000 tons of corn overnight.  NOFI seeks rapeseed meal.  However, KOCOPIA passed on corn overnight.  More than 400,000 tons of corn
  was sought by SK overnight.
• Corn
  OI was up 24,771 contracts on Tuesday, while CBOT soybean OI was up 9,825. 
  
• Yesterday
  funds sold an estimated net 33,000 corn contracts. 
• France’s
  AgMin in its initial estimate for the 2020 corn crop, projected production at 14.4 million tons, up 10.8% from last year and 1% above the five-year average.  The country will see an increase in area and yield.
• IEG
  is due out later today with US and world crop reports. 
• A
  Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 6,000 at 952,000 barrels (922-970 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 163,000 barrels to 20.435 million.

 

Corn
Export Developments

• South
  Korea’s NOFI bought 69,000 tons of corn at $197.80 a ton c&f from South America or South Africa for arrival in South Korea in December 2020 and January 2021.  They sought up to 276,000 tons. 
  
• The
  Korea Feed Association (KFA) bought 63,000 tons of optional origin corn at an estimated $191.74 a ton c&f for arrival in South Korea around Nov. 15.
• South
  Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) passed on 60,000 tons of corn due to high prices, for arrival around Nov. 25. Lowest offer was $204.60 a ton.

 

 

Soybean
complex.

• US
  soybeans are higher on technical buying.  Meal is trading higher from a reversal in product spreading.  Soybean oil is seeing bear spreading.  Malaysian palm oil was down 51 MYR and cash shed $5.00/ton.  China soybeans were down 2%, and both SBO & SBM off
  1.1%. 
• USDA
  announced 192,000 tons of soybeans for 2020-21 delivery to China. 
• There
  were 219 SBM deliveries and 142 soybean oil.  CBOT soybean oil registrations increased 21 with 79 coming out of Bunge Dec., IL and 100 registered at Volga, SD. 
  
• ANEC
  sees Brazil’s corn and soybean exports for August increasing 33 percent each, from last year.  They see exports at 6.72 million tons for soybeans and 6.32 million tons for corn.  July soybean exports were 8.02 million tons, below a projected 8.4 million tons.
  Corn exports in July were 5.07 million tons.

• AgroConsult
  estimated the Brazil 2020-21 Brazil soybean crop at 132.6 million tons (2 estimates today at that figure), up from their forecast for 2019-20 of 124.7 million tons. 
  
• France’s
  AgMin estimate the rapeseed crop at 3.33 million tons from 3.37 million last month, 4.8% lower from last year and 35.7% below the five-year.

·        
Rotterdam values this morning showed soybean oil for the Sep/Oct position was down 5 euros from this time previous session, rapeseed oil down about 10 in the nearby, and soybean meal when imported from South America mixed.  

• Offshore
  values this morning was leading CBOT soybean oil 5 higher and meal $3.20 higher.  
  
• China
  cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 139 cents per bushel (136 previous) and compares to 150 cents a week ago and 79 cents around this time last year.
  

·        
Palm oil:  Market is projecting 5 percent drop in July palm production and stocks down 12 percent to a 3-year low.  Early trade estimates were looking for production to drop 8 percent. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 192,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020-21 marketing year. 
  
• South
  Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) seeks up to 13,000 tons of rapeseed meal from India and a range of other animal feed meals (palm kernel expeller meal, copra meal and corn gluten feed), on Thursday, for arrival around Oct. 20.

 

September
oil share

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures
  are rebounding off big losses posted earlier this week.  Note KC and MN front month contracts hit an all-time low on Tuesday.  France and Germany lowered their wheat production estimates this week.  Japan bought only 3,000 tons of livestock wheat. 
  

• The
  aftermath of the blast in Lebanon left that country with less than a month of grain consumption. 
  
• Egypt
  seeks wheat for Sep 11-20 and/or Sep 21-30 shipment.  Lowest offer was $212.10/ton for 60,000 tons of Russian wheat. 
  
• Paris
  December wheat was up 0.50 euros at 180.75.  
• France’s
  AgMin lowered their wheat crop to 29.7 million tons from 31.31 million tons last month, now down 25 percent from last year, and also 15.9% lower than the average of the past five years.
• France’s
  AgMin reduced its estimate for this year’s barley crop, to 11.3 million tons from 12.3 million forecast in July. 
  
• Germany’s
  statistics office estimated the 2020 wheat crop down 12% from 2019 to about 20.23 million tons.  This is below 22.46 million tons projected by the cooperatives association. 
  
• Russian
  wheat with 11.5% protein was quoted around $236 per ton, including cost and freight (C&F), this week to Indonesia, up from sales committed at between $217 and $222 a ton in the last few months for August shipment. – Reuters
• Below
  normal rain for Ukraine’s central and southern regions resulted in unfavorable conditions for winter 2020 crop sowing, according to  APK-Inform.   Plantings normally begin second half of August for winter rapeseed.
• Ukraine’s
  grain exports stand at 2.96 million tons so far for the 2020-21 July-June season, down from 3.96 million tons year earlier. 
  
• Japan’s
  food self-sufficiency ratio inched higher to nearly 38% in the year ended March from a record low of 37% a year earlier, below the 2030 target of 45%. – AgMin
• Bloomberg
  – China is also set to import most wheat in seven years to secure domestic food requirements, according to the CNGOIC. The world’s largest wheat consumer and producer is set to buy 6 million tons in the 12 months starting June, up from just over 4 million
  tons in the previous year.
• India
  monsoon rains were 13 percent above normal for the week ending August 5. 
  

 

Export
Developments.

• Egypt
  seeks wheat for Sep 11-20 and/or Sep 21-30 shipment.  Lowest offer was $212.10/ton for 60,000 tons of Russian wheat.  60k Ukraine was offered at $214.95/ton. 
  
• Thailand
  passed on 192,600 tons of wheat and 107,700 tons of Australian (only) feed barley on Wed. prices were thought to be around $235 to $245/ton c&f. 
  
• Japan
  bought only 3,000 tons of feed wheat out of 80,000 tons sought and passed on 100,000 tons of barley for arrival by end of Jan. 
  
• Japan
  is in for 130,295 tons of food wheat on August 6. 

• Syria
  looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on August 12 for Nov-Dec shipment. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on August 17 for October through December delivery.