FI Morning Grain Comments 07/29/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WASHINGTON,
July 29, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Grains
and oilseeds are higher this morning on ongoing US crop concerns.  Outside markets are lending support.  USD is down 33 and WTI is 60 cents higher (8:06 am CT).  Over the past 24-hours rain fell across MN, WI into northern IL and MI.  Look for Missouri, southern
Iowa and northeastern Nebraska to see light rain over the next few days. Eastern Corn Belt looks good over the next week. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 29, 2021

• Frost
  and freezes occurred this morning from Argentina into southern Brazil.
• The
  cold surge will not harm winter wheat in Argentina or far southern Brazil but crops in Parana could be harmed along with some of the unharvested and immature Safrinha corn in Brazil.
  
• The
  next three nights will bring frost and some freezes from southern Brazil into southern Minas Gerais coffee areas with some citrus and sugarcane in Sao Paulo also impacted.
  
• The
  cold will not be as impactful in citrus, sugarcane and coffee areas as that which occurred last week, but there will be some negative impact.
  
• Flooding
  rain continued in Hebei and Shandong, China from remnants of Tropical Storm In-Fa Wednesday and once that system exits the nation this weekend a quieter weather pattern is expected.
  
• Some
  drying and heat will continue from southeastern Europe for a while with some expansion northeast into Ukraine and southwestern Russia, but the greatest dryness issue will be from Russia’s Southern Region into Kazakhstan.
  
• In
  North America, drought will continue in Canada’s Prairies and the northern Plains with “some” expansion of dryness into the northwestern Corn Belt.            
  

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
July 29:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
July 30:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

CBOT
First Notice Day delivery estimates by FI

Soybeans
zero (registrations went to zero earlier this week)

Soybean
meal 0-100 (bias zero…175 registered)

Soybean
oil 50-200 (bias light…73 registered out of 388 are “old”)

 

USDA
Export Sales

Overall
favors meal over oil, ok of soybeans and corn (poor old-crop/improvement for new-crop), and positive for wheat.  The USDA all-wheat export sales were 515,200 tons and included China for 128,900 tons (130,000 was switched from unknown) and Mexico for 85,600
tons.  Old crop corn posted another week of reductions (115,200 tons) and new crop was 529,300 tons, a big improvement from recent weekly sales for 2021-21.  New-crop corn destinations included Mexico (172,000 MT), unknown destinations (150,000 MT), Colombia
(129,100 MT), and Japan (50,000).  US soybean export sales were negative 79,200 tons old crop and 312,800 tons new-crop, both within expectations.  Soybean oil sales were poor and meal sales were low but within expectations.  Meal shipments of 242,200 tons
are supportive and included the Philippines (48,500 MT), Ireland (44,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (32,700 MT), Mexico (32,600 MT), and Ecuador (29,100 MT). Pork sales were excellent at 38,500 tons, with bulk for Mexico.  There were only 2,000 tons of sorghum
export sales and barley posted a small 200 ton reduction. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Jul 24: 400K (est 385K; prevR 424K; prev 419K)

US
Continuing Claims Jul 17: 3269K (est 3189K; prevR3262K; prev 3236K)

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q2 A: 6.5% (est 8.4%; prev 6.4%)

US
GDP Price Index Q2 A: 6.0% (est 5.4%; prev 4.3%)

US
Personal Consumption Q2 A: 11.8% (est 10.5%; prev 11.4%)

US
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q2 A: 6.1% (est 6.1%; prev 2.5%)

 

Corn

• Don’t
  discount a two-sided trade based on upper Midwest rains that fell over the past 24 hours.  Sharply lower USD may limit losses, if any.  Corn was higher early Thursday following a rally in wheat and strength in soybeans.  New-crop export sales were good.  Again,
  news was lacking.  Jordan passed on barley.  Rain that fell across MN, WI, northern IL, into IN and Michigan was beneficial over the past day.  Look for Missouri, southern Iowa and northeastern Nebraska to see light rain over the next few days. Eastern Corn
  Belt looks good over the next week. 
• African
  Swine fever was discovered in Dominican Republic, first detection for the Americas in about 40 years.
   
• EIA
  weekly petroleum status report showed ethanol production last week dropped a more than expected 14,000 barrels to 1.014 million (Bloomberg poll looked for up 3,000) and stocks build of 215,000 barrels to 22.733 (trade up 130k).  Stocks are highest since February
  19, 2021 and production lowest since May 7. 

 

Export
developments.

• Jordan
  passed on 120,000 tons of feed barley for Nov/Dec shipment. 

• China
  will auction off 202,264 tons of imported US corn and 49,695 tons of imported Ukrainian corn on July 30. 
  

• Qatar
  seeks about 100,000 tons of barley on August 18 for Sep-Nov delivery. 

 

Soybeans

• Soybeans
  are up around ten cents from follow through buying in soybean oil and rebound in soybean meal.  US new-crop soybean sales improved.  Private estimates are now calling for the Canadian canola crop to fall below 17 million tons this year.    
  
• Malaysian
  pam October futures were up 119 points and cash rallied $25/ton to $1,087.50. 
  

• CBOT
  soybean complex registrations were unchanged.

• November
  Canadian canola was down 3.80 at $879.20/ton as of 7:55 am CT. That market could see a two-sided trade during the day.  
  
• Rotterdam
  oils were 17-18 euros higher and meal unchanged to lower (Brazil looks like it was corrected from yesterday). 
  
• China
  cash crush margins were last positive 36 cents on our analysis (previous +22), versus negative 9 cents late last week. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading SBO 35 points higher and meal $2.40 lower. 
• Malaysian
  palm oil:  

• China
  

 

Export
Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to unknown for 2021-22 delivery. 
  
• The
  USDA seeks 2,880 tons of packaged oil for use under the PL480 program on August 3 for Sep 1-30 shipment. 
  

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat is higher on poor result from the US spring wheat crop tour. 
• Day
  2 of the US spring wheat crop tour reported the average yield for northwest North Dakota came out to a low 24.6 bushels per acre, well below 40.8 in 2019 (no tour in 2020) and 5-year average of 42.4 bu/ac.  Day 1 US spring wheat crop tour pegged the high protein
  spring wheat yield at 29.5 bushels per acre, well below a 5-year average of 43.3.
  
• December
  Paris wheat was up 3.00 at 221 euros as of 8:12 am CT. 
• Russia’s
  state weather forecaster cut its estimate for the 2021 grain crop by 3 million tons to 121 million tons.  Russia produced 133.5 million tons of grain in 2020.

 

Export
Developments. 

• Turkey’s
  TMO seeks up to around 900,000 tons of 11.5-12.5% milling wheat (395k) and feed barley (515k) for late September 16-30 shipment.  The barley is sought on August 3 and wheat on August 4. Turkey is one of Russia’s best customer. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 19. 

 

Rice/Other

• Results awaited: Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on July 27 for October through December shipment. 
  

 

 

USDA Export Sales

Overall favors meal over oil, ok of soybeans and corn (poor old-crop/improvement for new-crop), and positive for wheat. 

 

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  07/22/2021

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	222.8	1,689.5	1,732.0	164.4	1,023.2	1,792.4	0.0	0.0
SRW	167.9	1,077.2	659.9	58.1	390.7	266.7	-5.0	0.0
HRS	97.5	1,538.1	1,808.3	92.4	834.7	1,047.1	0.0	0.0
WHITE	27.1	1,062.0	1,280.4	30.2	438.3	546.1	0.0	0.0
DURUM	0.0	8.4	207.0	0.0	41.7	177.8	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	515.2	5,375.3	5,687.6	345.0	2,728.6	3,830.2	-5.0	0.0
BARLEY	-0.1	23.0	36.3	0.4	2.0	2.4	0.0	0.0
CORN	-115.2	7,543.2	5,677.7	1,361.0	62,112.1	38,003.4	529.3	16,656.7
SORGHUM	2.0	643.2	723.9	69.6	6,537.1	3,640.7	0.0	1,594.9
SOYBEANS	-79.3	2,808.7	7,448.7	244.2	59,100.0	39,146.7	312.8	10,177.7
SOY MEAL	87.3	1,914.8	1,794.6	242.2	9,762.1	9,876.5	73.1	1,130.4
SOY OIL	2.2	17.9	215.2	1.2	661.6	1,029.8	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	6.5	192.5	93.3	3.8	1,615.1	1,329.4	11.5	16.5
M S RGH	0.0	7.8	23.6	0.2	26.1	72.9	0.0	7.0
L G BRN	0.2	11.4	9.9	0.3	40.3	59.1	0.0	0.7
M&S BR	0.2	0.4	31.7	0.4	156.6	86.6	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	1.4	45.3	66.9	3.0	648.4	864.8	80.2	80.5
M S MLD	2.5	68.7	80.6	46.7	626.5	667.6	0.1	12.4
TOTAL	10.7	326.1	305.9	54.3	3,113.0	3,080.4	91.8	117.1
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	-1.2	1,585.8	3,340.7	238.3	14,603.5	13,784.2	192.2	3,164.7
PIMA	4.2	98.2	136.8	9.3	743.1	466.6	0.2	5.5

 

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period July 16-22, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 515,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 9 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (128,900 MT, including 130,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100
MT), Mexico (85,600 MT, including decreases of 11,100 MT), the Philippines (59,100 MT), Taiwan (52,100 MT), and Thailand (47,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (5,000 MT) and Indonesia (1,600 MT).  Total net sales reductions
for 2022/2023 of 5,000 MT were for unknown destinations.  Exports of 345,000 MT were down 27 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (84,600 MT), China (65,300 MT), the Philippines
(57,200 MT), Nigeria (51,000 MT), and Taiwan (44,600 MT).

Corn: 
Net sales reductions of 115,200 MT for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low–were up 30 percent from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (36,300 MT, including 39,900 MT switched from unknown destinations
and decreases of 16,100 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Barbados (6,300 MT), Canada (5,200 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), and Taiwan (2,500 MT), were more than offset by reductions primarily for China (119,300 MT) and unknown
destinations (71,600 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 529,300 MT were primarily for Mexico (172,000 MT), unknown destinations (150,000 MT), Colombia (129,100 MT), and Japan (50,000 MT).  Exports of 1,361,000 MT were up 36 percent from the previous week and
21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (698,700 MT), Japan (308,500 MT), Mexico (256,900 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT), and Jamaica (19,000 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 30,500 MT is for unknown destinations.  For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 60,000 MT is for unknown destinations.

Barley: 
Total net sales reductions for 2021/2022 of 100 MT were for China.  Exports of 400 MT were up 62 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (200 MT) and Canada (200 MT).    

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 2,000 MT for 2020/2021 resulting in increases for China (69,000 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destination) and Mexico (1,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (68,000 MT).  Exports of 69,600 MT were up 18
percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was primarily to China (69,000 MT).

Rice: 
Net sales of 10,700 MT for 2020/2021 were down 85 percent from the previous week and 64 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (6,900 MT), Canada (2,200 MT), Jordan (1,400 MT), Belgium (500 MT), and Saudi Arabia (300 MT), were
offset by reductions for Japan (900 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 91,800 MT were primarily for Iraq (80,000 MT), Guatemala (7,500 MT), and Honduras (4,000 MT). 
Exports of 54,300 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (40,100 MT), Mexico (4,600 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), Jordan (2,600 MT), and South Korea (1,600 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales reductions of 79,300 MT for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Taiwan (12,800 MT), Mexico (6,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Vietnam (5,800 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), South Korea (4,800 MT), and Bangladesh (4,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Japan (74,800 MT) and unknown destinations (51,500 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 312,800 MT primarily for Mexico (160,500 MT), China (121,000 MT), Pakistan (66,000
MT), and Taiwan (21,500 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (64,000 MT).  Exports of 244,200 MT were up 49 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (106,700
MT), Bangladesh (59,500 MT), Canada (33,200 MT), Japan (20,600 MT), and Indonesia (13,000 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 87,300 MT for 2020/2021 were up 28 percent from the previous week, but down 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Dominican Republic (32,800 MT), Mexico (25,500 MT, including decreases of 4,000 MT), Colombia (18,000
MT), unknown destinations (18,000 MT), and Canada (11,700 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), were offset by reductions for Slovenia (42,000 MT), Panama (5,100 MT), and Belgium (800 MT). 
For 2021/2022, net sales of 73,100 MT were reported for Slovenia (42,000 MT), Canada (19,100 MT), Panama (7,100 MT), Honduras (3,600 MT), and Guatemala (1,300 MT). 
Exports of 242,200 MT were up 66 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (48,500 MT), Ireland (44,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (32,700 MT), Mexico (32,600 MT), and
Ecuador (29,100 MT). 

Late
Reporting: For
2020/2021, exports totaling 1,500 MT of soybean cake and meal were reported late to Panama.

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 2,200 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Canada (1,300 MT) and Mexico (900 MT).  Exports of 1,200 MT were down 58 percent from the previous week and 48 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Mexico (900 MT) and Canada (300 MT). 

Cotton: 
Net sales reductions of 1,200 RB for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low were–down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Mexico (2,400 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), Peru (500 RB), South Korea (400 RB), and Egypt
(100 RB), were more than offset by reductions for Indonesia (2,200 RB), Vietnam (2,000 RB), China (900 RB), and Japan (400 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 192,200 RB primarily for Bangladesh (55,000 RB), Mexico (39,600 RB), Pakistan (33,700 RB), Vietnam
(25,300 RB), and Turkey (14,300 RB), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (200 RB).  Exports of 238,300 RB were down 3 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Turkey (54,200 RB), Pakistan (48,800
RB), Vietnam (29,300 RB), China (27,500 RB), and Indonesia (18,500 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 4,200 RB were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Peru (2,300 RB) and India
(900 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 200 RB were reported for Thailand (100 RB) and Japan (100 RB).  Exports of 9,300 RB were down 10 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (6,300
RB), Peru (1,500 RB), China (700 RB), Germany (400 RB), and Pakistan (200 RB).  

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account totaling 1,000 RB to Vietnam were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The outstanding balance of 4,700 RB is for China.

Export
Adjustments:  Accumulated
exports of upland cotton to Thailand were adjusted down 352 RB for week ending July 15^th.  This shipment was reported in error.

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 388,600 pieces for 2021 were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (254,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 6,600 pieces), Brazil (59,600 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 600 pieces), South Korea (23,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 900 pieces), Taiwan (22,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), and Mexico (13,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,300
pieces), were offset by reductions for Japan (400 pieces) and Thailand (300 pieces).  Net sales of 1,300 kip skins were reported for China.  Exports of 391,100 pieces were down 26 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (259,100 pieces), South Korea (48,200 pieces), Mexico (28,100 pieces), Brazil (11,400 pieces), and Taiwan (11,000 pieces).  In addition, exports of 1,400 kip skins were to Belgium.

Net
sales of 52,000 wet blues for 2021 were down 81 percent from the previous week and 73 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Vietnam (23,100 unsplit, including decreases of 700 unsplit), Italy (18,800 unsplit, including decreases
of 200 unsplit and 100 grain splits), Mexico (5,100 unsplit and 200 grain splits), and the Dominican Republic (4,500 unsplit).  Total net sales for 2022 of 4,000 unsplit were for Mexico.  Exports of 161,100 wet blues were down 13 percent from the previous
week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Italy (57,200 unsplit and 6,000 grain splits), Vietnam (34,300 unsplit), China (32,700 unsplit), Mexico (11,200 unsplit and 10,300 grain splits), and the Dominican Republic (3,200
unsplit).  Net sales of 507,200 splits were primarily for China (286,400 pounds) and Taiwan (169,000 pounds, including decreases of 3,000 pounds).  Exports of 624,000 pounds were to Taiwan (464,000 pounds) and Vietnam (160,000 pounds).

Beef: 
Net
sales of 22,500 MT reported for 2021 were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for South Korea (8,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (6,100 MT, including decreases of
600 MT), and China (4,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Exports of 19,100 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,100 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China
(3,100 MT), Taiwan (1,700 MT), and Mexico (1,500 MT).

Pork: 
Net
sales of 38,500 MT reported for 2021 were up 57 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (25,100 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Chile (3,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan
(3,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Honduras (2,300 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Total net sales for 2022 of 400 MT were for Chile.  Exports of 29,900 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,300 MT), China (5,700 MT), Japan (4,000 MT), South Korea (2,100 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).