PDF attached

 

USDA
announced 250,371 tons of soybeans to Mexico and 132,000 tons of soybeans to China. USD was down 67 earlier this morning, and gold up a strong amount.  US weather looks very good over the next 10 days with no excessive high-pressure ridge and no prolonged
periods of hot temperatures.  Malaysian palm futures traded sharply lower on Monday apparently on forecasts for higher palm oil production and profit taking.  China corn futures (one point up 4.3% overnight) reached a record high on tight supplies even after
record reserves auction volumes.  We didn’t see any major global tender business over the weekend.  Argentina’s export licenses were very good at the end of last week at 570,000.  It’s hard to source corn out of Brazil.  Some weather concerns for the Black
Sea persistent dryness may continue to gain attention this week.  IKAR increased their production forecast for Russia’s wheat crop to 78 million tons from 76.5 million previous, in part to an upward revision to the government’s planted area estimate.
The government pegged the area for harvesting at 29.4 million hectares, the most since at least 1990 and up about 5% from a year earlier. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

 

UNITED
STATES

No
dominating ridge of high pressure, no excessive warmth and periods of rain are expected over the next ten days. However, the northern Midwest from the Dakotas to Michigan and portions of northern and central Iowa may not get much rain in the next week to ten
days and net drying is expected. For those areas in Iowa that continue to be missed by rain events the outlook is not good for crops continuing to struggle in dryness. Net drying in other northern Midwest locations might eventually raise some crop stress,
but no area is expected to become desperate for rain except those in Iowa as noted above. The lower parts of the Midwest northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin will be wettest in this coming week. 

 

The
bottom line remains favorable for most of the Midwest except for northwest and central Iowa and a few immediate neighboring areas were dryness is most serious. Some areas in the eastern Midwest are certainly drying out and will need significant rain soon,
but the dryness is not as great as that in northwestern Iowa. In the meantime, the northwestern U.S. Plains and Canada’s central and southwestern Prairies will experience net drying that may stress a few immature crops and speed other crops toward fully maturation
a little prematurely.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

No
major theme changes occurred during the weekend

  • Some
    rain fell briefly across the United Kingdom, far northern France, Belgium, Netherlands and in a few Germany locations during the weekend, but relief from dryness did not occur in the heart of France or in many other areas east into central Germany and parts
    of Poland
  • The
    outlook leaves northwestern Europe in a drier bias for the next ten days with France staying the driest region
    • Any
      showers that occur in the North Sea region will be brief and light
  • Dryness
    will also continue in the southern Balkan Countries and from southern and eastern Ukraine into Kazakhstan and Russia’s Southern Region
    • This
      is the same weather pattern that was promoted late last week for the coming ten days

 

The
bottom line continues to promote crop stress in most of the drier areas noted above. The most serious stress is likely in the southern Balkans region and from eastern Ukraine into western Kazakhstan as well as in France. Favorable crop conditions will prevail
elsewhere.

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

No
general theme changes occurred since Friday

  • Russia’s
    New Lands will see some rain in the coming week to ten days, but the precipitation will not be evenly distributed leaving some areas in need of greater rainfall while others get some relief
    • The
      GFS model runs continue to suggest more beneficial rainfall than the other models
    • Scattered
      showers are expected, but the resulting rainfall will be a little too erratic and light for a general improvement except in the southwestern half of the Ural Mountains region
    • No
      excessive heat is expected and that alone will provide some benefit to crops

 

 

CHINA

No
change in the general theme of weather was noted since Friday

  • A
    good mix of rain and sunshine will occur in northern China over the next two weeks
  • Most
    of the widespread heavy rain events are over, but pockets of heavy rain will still be possible
    • Weekend
      flooding was mostly confined to Sichuan

 

The
bottom line should be good for northern crop areas where a mix of rain and sunshine will occur over the next two weeks support crop development. Flooding in east-central China will continue to recede and cleanup efforts will begin. Assessments of damage from
recent flooding will be slow to be completed and even slower coming out of China.

 

 

AUSTRALIA

Not
much changed during the weekend

  • Heavy
    rain and flooding occurred in urban areas east of the Great Dividing Range during the weekend causing some property and infrastructure damage
  • Weekend
    rainfall in key crop areas in eastern and north-central New South Wales and southeastern Queensland was welcome and good for crops
  • The
    only other rainfall for a while will be in coastal areas with southwestern Western Australia wettest
    • Any
      showers that occur elsewhere will be brief and light having little impact on crop conditions