PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Other
than rice, CBOT agriculture commodities are taking a big step back from short term highs as weather models indicate a sliver of improvement for the US WCB and north of the US border.  Northern and western Alberta will see rain fall periodically.  Northern
Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba will also get some showers.  For the US, models suggest a cooler than expected August.  Following the hot temperatures over the next week, rain will develop across the WCB and upper Great Plains around the end of this month. 
There are still issues across other parts of the world.  Ukraine will dry down and Europe will see a pickup in rain this weekend, slowing winter crop harvest.  China saw another day of torrential rain from central and eastern Henan into Hebei.  Some areas
saw 40-45 inches over the past six days. 

 

Profit
taking is also in focus. USDA export sales were poor, IMO, except for all-wheat.  Global export developments were light.  South Korea bought 4,000 tons of non-GMO soybeans, as expected, at $948.72/ton for arrival between Sep 10 and Oct 20.  There were no changes
in CBOT registrations. 

 

 

Weather

Map

Description automatically generated

Day
1

Map

Description automatically generated

 

Day
2

Map

Description automatically generated

 

7-day

Map

Description automatically generated

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLDWEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 22, 2021

  • Torrential
    rain continued for a second day in Henan, China while spreading northeast into Hebei.
    • Over
      the past six days rainfall of 16.00 to 22.00 inches and local totals of 40-45 inches has impacted 91,000 square miles of crop land in central China.
    • Crop
      damage is likely to be extensive.
  • no
    new frost damage occurred in Brazil overnight, but another bout of cooling may occur at the end of next week.
  • Ukraine
    is drying down along with parts of western Russia and rain is expected to be sporadic for a while.
  • Another
    round of frequent rain will begin this weekend in Europe delaying small grain harvesting from eastern France into Poland and returning concern over the quality of unharvested crops.
  • India’s
    monsoon should increase over the coming week to ten days with greater rain in the central, east and north. 
  • Typhoon
    In-Fa will reach Zhejiang, China this weekend producing 10.00 to 20.00 inches of rain and resulting in a new area of significant damage threatening crops and property
    • Rice
      will be the key crop at risk of damage
  • Australia
    weather will remain favorably mixed over the next two weeks, although greater rain will soon be needed in Queensland and northern New South Wales
  • South
    Africa winter crops are continuing to establish well in the west, but rain is needed in unirrigated areas of the east
  • Argentina
    winter crops are semi-dormant, but there is need for rain in western production areas
    • This
      year’s wheat is better established than last year
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will continue struggling with drought for the next couple of weeks except in northern and western Alberta where rain will fall periodically
    • Northern
      Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba will also get some showers, but greater rain is desired
  • Very
    warm to hot temperatures will impact the U.S. Plains for the next week
  • Cooling
    is likely in U.S. crop areas in August with some rain possible as the initial bout of cooling begins early in the month
  • West
    Texas will be drying down and heating up for a while
  • U.S.
    Delta weather is expected to remain a little wet at times over the next ten days
  • Rain
    in the U.S. Plains and western Corn Belt will be restricted in the first week of the two week outlook and then scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
    • Today’s
      GFS model run is too wet in early August for parts of the western Corn Belt

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
July 22:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • USDA
    to release world supply-demand outlook for orange and its juice
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    total milk, red meat production
  • U.S.
    cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan