PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Other
than rice, CBOT agriculture commodities are taking a big step back from short term highs as weather models indicate a sliver of improvement for the US WCB and north of the US border.  Northern and western Alberta will see rain fall periodically.  Northern
Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba will also get some showers.  For the US, models suggest a cooler than expected August.  Following the hot temperatures over the next week, rain will develop across the WCB and upper Great Plains around the end of this month. 
There are still issues across other parts of the world.  Ukraine will dry down and Europe will see a pickup in rain this weekend, slowing winter crop harvest.  China saw another day of torrential rain from central and eastern Henan into Hebei.  Some areas
saw 40-45 inches over the past six days. 

 

Profit
taking is also in focus. USDA export sales were poor, IMO, except for all-wheat.  Global export developments were light.  South Korea bought 4,000 tons of non-GMO soybeans, as expected, at $948.72/ton for arrival between Sep 10 and Oct 20.  There were no changes
in CBOT registrations. 

 

 

Weather

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WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLDWEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 22, 2021

  • Torrential
    rain continued for a second day in Henan, China while spreading northeast into Hebei.
    • Over
      the past six days rainfall of 16.00 to 22.00 inches and local totals of 40-45 inches has impacted 91,000 square miles of crop land in central China.
    • Crop
      damage is likely to be extensive.
  • no
    new frost damage occurred in Brazil overnight, but another bout of cooling may occur at the end of next week.
  • Ukraine
    is drying down along with parts of western Russia and rain is expected to be sporadic for a while.
  • Another
    round of frequent rain will begin this weekend in Europe delaying small grain harvesting from eastern France into Poland and returning concern over the quality of unharvested crops.
  • India’s
    monsoon should increase over the coming week to ten days with greater rain in the central, east and north. 
  • Typhoon
    In-Fa will reach Zhejiang, China this weekend producing 10.00 to 20.00 inches of rain and resulting in a new area of significant damage threatening crops and property
    • Rice
      will be the key crop at risk of damage
  • Australia
    weather will remain favorably mixed over the next two weeks, although greater rain will soon be needed in Queensland and northern New South Wales
  • South
    Africa winter crops are continuing to establish well in the west, but rain is needed in unirrigated areas of the east
  • Argentina
    winter crops are semi-dormant, but there is need for rain in western production areas
    • This
      year’s wheat is better established than last year
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will continue struggling with drought for the next couple of weeks except in northern and western Alberta where rain will fall periodically
    • Northern
      Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba will also get some showers, but greater rain is desired
  • Very
    warm to hot temperatures will impact the U.S. Plains for the next week
  • Cooling
    is likely in U.S. crop areas in August with some rain possible as the initial bout of cooling begins early in the month
  • West
    Texas will be drying down and heating up for a while
  • U.S.
    Delta weather is expected to remain a little wet at times over the next ten days
  • Rain
    in the U.S. Plains and western Corn Belt will be restricted in the first week of the two week outlook and then scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
    • Today’s
      GFS model run is too wet in early August for parts of the western Corn Belt

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
July 22:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • USDA
    to release world supply-demand outlook for orange and its juice
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    total milk, red meat production
  • U.S.
    cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

Friday,
July 23:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, cattle inventory
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

USDA
export sales were poor for corn, soybean meal (marketing year low) and soybean oil.  Soybeans were on the low side of expectations and wheat was within.  The report is viewed negative for the soybean complex and corn.  Pork sales were ok at 24,500 tons and
included 10k for Mexico.  There were 52,200 tons of sorghum sales, for Japan and Mexico. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Jul 17: 419K (est 350K; prevR 368K; prev 360K)

US
Continuing Claims Jul 10: 3236K (est 3100K; prevR 3265K; prev 3241K)

US
Existing Home Sales Change Jun: 5.86M (est 5.90M; prev 5.80M)


Existing Home Sales (M/M) Jun: 1.4% (est 1.7%; prev -0.9%)


Inventory Of Homes For Sale Jun: 1.25 Mln Units, 2.6 Month’s Worth (prev 1.23 Mln Units, 2.5 Months)


National Median Home Price For Existing Homes Jun: 363.3K, +23.4% (prev $350,300, +23.6%From May 2020)

 

 

Corn

  • Corn
    is
    sharply
    lower on weather models turning slightly wetter for the WCB. 
  • For
    the upside, the $5.88 September corn gap is still not out of reach. 
  • Weekly
    ethanol production fell for the second consecutive week to 1.028 million barrels, down 13,000 barrels (PADD2 down 13k), and stocks shot up 1.384 million barrels to 22.518 million, highest since mid- February 2021.  
  • The
    USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 2 percent and chicks placed down 2 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021 through July 17, 2021 for the United States were 5.24 billion. Cumulative placements were up 1 percent
    from the same period a year earlier.
  • Via
    ICE chat…Argentina: Agriculture adds new tools to monitor sorghum and corn crops.  A platform that grows in benefits providing more information for decision making

 

Export
developments.

 

 

Soybeans

 

Export
Developments

  • South
    Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. bought 4,000 tons of non-GMO soybeans, as expected, at $948.72/ton for arrival between Sep 10 and Oct 20. 

 

Wheat

  • US
    wheat
    is
    lower following corn and soybeans.  The USD turned higher by 9:15 am CT. 

  • Russia’s
    Southern Region and parts of the dry areas of Kazakhstan will see rain through Friday evening.  This is welcome. 
  • December
    Paris wheat was up 3.75 at 212.75 euros as of 9:06 am CT. 

 

Export
Developments. 

  • Results
    awaited: Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 19. 
  • Pakistan’s
    TCP seeks 500,000 tons of wheat on July 27.  200,000 tons are for August shipment, and 300,000 tons are for September shipment.

 

Rice/Other

  • Mauritius seeks 6,000
    tons of white rice on July 27 for October through December shipment. 

 

 

USDA Export Sales

USDA export sales were poor for corn, soybean meal (marketing year low) and soybean oil.  Soybeans were on the low side of expectations and wheat was within.  The report is viewed negative
for the soybean complex and corn.  Pork sales were ok at 24,500 tons and included 10k for Mexico.  There were 52,200 tons of sorghum sales, for Japan and Mexico. 

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  07/15/2021





























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

137.0

1,631.1

1,695.6

119.5

858.9

1,618.0

0.0

0.0

   SRW    

184.6

967.4

675.6

101.7

332.6

213.6

5.0

5.0

   HRS     

113.5

1,533.0

1,770.1

165.3

742.3

838.3

0.0

0.0

   WHITE   

38.0

1,065.1

1,172.2

84.5

408.2

496.2

0.0

0.0

   DURUM  

0.0

8.4

203.0

0.0

41.7

158.8

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

473.2

5,205.1

5,516.5

471.0

2,383.7

3,324.8

5.0

5.0

BARLEY

0.0

23.5

36.6

0.2

1.6

2.1

0.0

0.0

CORN

-88.5

9,019.4

6,678.2

1,003.5

60,751.2

37,032.1

47.7

16,127.4

SORGHUM

-52.2

710.9

802.2

59.0

6,467.4

3,558.1

0.0

1,594.9

SOYBEANS

62.0

3,132.2

7,865.4

164.1

58,855.8

38,529.1

176.3

9,864.9

SOY MEAL

68.3

2,069.7

1,719.0

145.8

9,519.9

9,691.2

19.1

1,057.3

SOY OIL

0.7

16.9

225.2

2.9

660.3

1,018.9

0.0

0.6

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

40.5

189.8

93.3

35.5

1,611.3

1,329.4

5.0

5.0

   M S RGH

0.0

8.0

23.6

0.3

25.9

72.9

0.0

7.0

   L G BRN

0.1

11.5

10.1

0.4

40.0

58.8

0.0

0.7

   M&S BR

0.1

0.7

31.7

22.3

156.2

86.5

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

29.7

46.8

52.4

18.0

645.5

859.5

0.3

0.3

   M S MLD

2.8

113.0

83.9

3.8

579.8

661.3

0.1

12.3

     TOTAL

73.2

369.7

294.9

80.3

3,058.6

3,068.5

5.4

25.3

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

40.0

1,825.3

3,542.8

246.1

14,365.5

13,463.4

251.9

2,972.4

   PIMA

3.4

103.3

135.6

10.4

733.8

458.8

0.9

5.4

 

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period July 9-15, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 473,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 11 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (135,300 MT, including decreases of 3,300 MT), the Philippines (122,800 MT, including decreases
of 1,000 MT), Mexico (118,400 MT, including decreases of 2,800 MT), Nigeria (43,700 MT), and Ecuador (41,800 MT, including 41,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for Vietnam (53,000 MT).  Total net sales for 2022/2023,
of 5,000 MT were for unknown destinations.  Exports of 471,000 MT were up 29 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (118,800 MT), Mexico (67,700 MT), China (63,500 MT),
Nigeria (48,700 MT), and Ecuador (41,800 MT).

Corn: 
Net sales reductions of 88,500 MT for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (57,300 MT, including 43,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and 12,000 MT – late), Panama (20,700
MT), Colombia (10,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Nicaragua (7,500 MT, switched from Honduras), and Canada (6,700 MT), were more than offset by reductions primarily for China (160,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 47,700 MT were primarily for Japan
(18,000 MT), Honduras (9,100 MT), Mexico (9,000 MT), Nicaragua (7,500 MT), and El Salvador (1,300 MT).  Exports of 1,003,500 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China
(526,000 MT), Mexico (235,900 MT), Japan (95,400 MT, including 12,000 MT – late), Venezuela (47,100 MT), and Nicaragua (27,400 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales:
 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 30,500 MT is for unknown destinations.  For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 60,000 MT is for unknown destinations.

Late
Reporting:

For 2020/2021, net sales and exports totaling 12,000 MT of corn were reported late to Japan.

Barley:
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 200 MT for 2021/2022 were unchanged from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to Canada.    

Sorghum: 
Net sales reductions of 52,200 MT for 2020/2021 resulting in increases for Mexico (900 MT) and Japan (100 MT), were more than offset by reductions for China (53,200 MT). 
Exports of 59,000 MT were down 17 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (58,800 MT) and Mexico (200 MT).

Rice: 
Net sales of 73,200 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Haiti (27,500 MT), Venezuela (25,100 MT), Mexico (16,100 MT), Canada (2,000 MT), and Jordan (1,400 MT), were offset by
reductions for Guatemala (1,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 5,400 MT were primarily for Guatemala (5,000 MT), Costa Rica (200 MT), and Leeward Windward Islands (100 MT). 
Exports of 80,300 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Venezuela (26,300 MT), South Korea (22,200 MT), Haiti (15,300 MT), Honduras (5,500 MT), and Mexico (4,400 MT).

Exports
for Own Account:
 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 62,000 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (85,300 MT, including 53,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,400 MT),
Mexico (13,100 MT, including decreases of 11,300 MT), Colombia (9,100 MT, including 8,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Malaysia (5,600 MT), and Taiwan (5,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (58,200 MT).  For 2021/2022,
net sales of 176,300 MT were reported for unknown destinations (97,000 MT), Mexico (67,400 MT), China 6,000 MT), Taiwan (5,000 MT), and Vietnam (900 MT).  Exports of 164,100 MT were down 17 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (60,300 MT), Japan (57,300 MT), Indonesia (22,000 MT), Colombia (9,100 MT), and Vietnam (4,400 MT).

Exports
for Own Account

For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal:
 
Net sales of 68,300 MT for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low–were down 3 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Ireland (28,500 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from Poland and decreases of 1,500
MT), Colombia (25,000 MT), unknown destinations (12,500 MT), Panama (7,100 MT), and Canada (6,700 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Poland (30,000 MT), the French West Indies (6,500 MT), and Nicaragua (5,500 MT). 
For 2021/2022, net sales of 19,100 MT were primarily for Canada (15,500 MT), Mexico (2,800 MT), and Guatemala (500 MT). 
Exports of 145,800 MT were down 43 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (49,400 MT), Ireland (28,500 MT), Canada (21,300 MT), Mexico (17,100 MT), and Honduras (7,500
MT).

Soybean
Oil:
 
Net sales of 700 MT for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Mexico (400 MT) and Canada (300 MT).  Exports of 2,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week,
but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Mexico (2,400 MT) and Canada (500 MT). 

Cotton: 
Net sales of 40,000 RB for 2020/2021 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Turkey (15,700 RB, including 500 RB switched from Vietnam and decreases of 600 RB), China (13,200 RB,
including 4,100 RB switched from Hong Kong), Pakistan (4,600 RB, including 600 RB switched from Vietnam and 5,100 RB – late), Indonesia (3,700 RB, including 1,100 RB switched from Thailand, 1,000 RB from Vietnam, 900 RB from Pakistan, 700 RB from Japan, and
decreases of 1,300 RB), and Vietnam (2,600 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Hong Kong (4,100 RB) and Mexico (1,000 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 251,900 RB primarily for Turkey (100,500 RB), Pakistan (73,500 RB), Vietnam (36,300 RB), Mexico
(24,500 RB), and China (13,900 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for the Philippines (2,600 RB) and Japan (2,100 RB).  Exports of 246,100 RB were up 32 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily
to Vietnam (55,700 RB), Turkey (42,300 RB), Mexico (29,700 RB), Pakistan (24,300 RB, including 5,100 RB – late), and China (22,200 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 3,400 RB were down 42 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases were reported for China (1,300 RB), Italy (1,100 RB), and India (1,000 RB, including decreases of 100 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 900 RB were reported for Taiwan (400 RB), Bangladesh (400 RB), and Japan (100 RB).  Exports of 10,400 RB were
up noticeably from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (4,500 RB), China (2,700 RB), Egypt (900 RB), Thailand (900 RB), and Honduras (900 RB).  

Exports
for Own Account:
 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 5,700 RB is for China

(4,700 RB) and Vietnam (1,000 RB).

Late
Reporting:

For 2020/2021, net sales and exports totaling 5,100 RB of upland cotton were reported late for Pakistan. 

Hides
and Skins:
 
Net sales of 355,800 pieces for 2021 were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (192,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 6,600 pieces), South Korea (71,200 whole
cattle hides, including decreases of 1,100 pieces), Mexico (41,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,400 pieces), Taiwan (26,500 whole cattle hides), and Brazil (14,900 whole cattle hides).  Exports of 525,500 pieces were up 85 percent from the
previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (364,000 pieces), South Korea (83,000 pieces), Mexico (36,800 pieces), Thailand (27,600 pieces), and Brazil (8,100 pieces). 

Net
sales of 278,300 wet blues for 2021 were up 7 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (73,400 unsplit, 14,700 grain splits, and decreases of 100 unsplit), Vietnam (80,400 unsplit, including
decreases of 200 unsplit), Italy (52,400 unsplit, 100 grain splits, and decreases of 100 unsplit), Thailand (24,400 unsplit, including decreases of 400 unsplit), and Taiwan (23,600 unsplit).  For 2022, net sales of 29,200 unsplit were reported for Italy (21,600
unsplit), Vietnam (4,000 unsplit), and China (3,600 unsplit).  Exports of 185,600 wet blues were up 50 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (40,800 unsplit and 18,000 grain splits), Italy
(37,500 unsplit and 3,200 grain splits), Vietnam (28,700 unsplit), Taiwan (15,000 unsplit), and Thailand (14,400 unsplit).  Net sales of 157,500 splits resulting in increases for China (159,400 pounds), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (1,800 pounds). 
Exports of 204,000 pounds were to Vietnam (160,000 pounds) and China (44,000 pounds).

Beef: 
Net
sales of 25,100 MT reported for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 63 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (8,600 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (5,200 MT, including decreases of 600 MT),
China (4,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (2,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Belgium (100 MT). 
Total
net sales for 2022, of 300 MT were for Japan. 
Exports of 21,400 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 38 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,900 MT), Japan (5,500 MT), China (4,000 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT), and Mexico
(1,400 MT).

Pork: 
Net
sales of 24,500 MT reported for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (10,000 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Japan (5,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT),
Canada (4,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Chile (900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for China (100 MT) and Peru (100 MT).  Exports of 30,800 MT were up 22 percent
from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,000 MT), China (5,400 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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