PDF attached

 

Morning.  

 

Back
to trading a weather market. Weather models look warmer and drier for week one and week two for the US.  The most notable change was a drier forecast for week two for lower Midwest to 2/3 of the Midwest.  This lifted corn and soybeans sharply higher overnight. 
Soybean products are mixed with a firm undertone in meal and weaker SBO.  Although Rotterdam vegetable oils were leading CBOT sharply higher this morning.  Wheat is mostly higher on follow through buying yesterday.  China sold all of its 4 million tons of
corn out of auction, bringing cumulative sales to 28 million tons.  Funds yesterday were most active in Chicago wheat on the buy side since last December, using daily estimates.  Argentina is on holiday.  After the CBOT close, we learned the Rosario Grains
Exchange lowered their outlook for the 2020 Argentina wheat crop to 18-19 million tons from 21-22 million tons previously, based on a lower area. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

Soybean
conditions are expected to decline 1-2 on Monday and corn 2-4. 

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    serious theme changes were noted over the next ten days
    • Showers
      and thunderstorms will scatter erratically across the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states through Monday morning and then net drying is expected in the lower half to two-thirds of the Midwest through the remainder of next week and into the following weekend
    • Rain
      will fall across the far northern parts of the Midwest next week while drying occurs elsewhere
  • Rain
    was reduced from eastern Iowa to Ohio July 16-18
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was increased from North Dakota to northern Michigan July 16-18
    • Some
      of the rain was overdone, but the increase was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced from the lower Midwest July 19-21
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • A
    boost in upper Midwest rainfall was suggested July 19-21
    • Some
      of the increase was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced from Iowa, southern Wisconsin and Missouri into Ohio and northern Kentucky July 22-23
    • This
      reduction was needed

 

Today’s
U.S. outlook trended drier in the lower half to two-thirds of the Midwest during the second week of the outlook which was a needed change. Completely dry weather is not expected, but warm to hot temperatures will keep evaporation rates high so that any rain
that falls after Monday of next week will be quickly lost to evaporation. If the forecast model run is correct (and there is a fair chance that the model trend is correct toward limiting the ten-day rainfall in the lower and middle parts of the Midwest) topsoil
moisture will be short to very short over a large part of the region by July 24. Favorable crop moisture will continue in the northern Midwest and subsoil moisture will still be supportive for crops, although showing signs of decline.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • No
    significant changes in the first week of the outlook
    • France
      and parts of the United Kingdom and Belgium are left dry or mostly dry
    • Germany
      and northwestern Czech Republic receive a few showers of limited significance
    • The
      lower Danube River Basin remains quite dry
    • Central
      Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region receive minimal amounts of rain
  • Rain
    was increased from southern France to southern Poland July 19-21 as well as in areas near the Baltic Sea
    • These
      increases may have been overdone
  • Rain
    was reduced July 19-21 from east-central France into western Poland
    • Too
      much rain was removed from the outlook
  • Rain
    was reduced from Austria to western Ukraine July 22-23
    • Some
      increase in rain was needed, but the distribution is likely to be further changed in future model runs

 

No
serious changes to the general weather trends are expected over the next two weeks. France will continue to struggle for moisture most significantly with some southern U.K. locations, Belgium and Germany to be included. A more significant region of dryness
has returned to the lower Danube River Basin and that area needs rain and is not likely to see much for a while. World Weather, Inc. still believes there is some potential for a short term increase in rain for western Europe after July 18, but that has not
showed up in the model data yet.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Little
    change was noted overnight in the first week of the outlook
    • The
      central New Lands are still advertised to be drier biased, although a few showers scatter through the region
    • Rain
      falls most significantly northwest of the Ural Mountains
    • Erratic
      showers occur in the eastern New Lands
  • GFS
    model run was much wetter during the second week with rain suggested for much of the New Lands
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone especially from July 20-25 when a deep upper level low pressure center was advertised to move through the region
    • The
      European model has a deep upper level low pressure system, as well, but it keeps that storm mostly over western Russia and does not allow the storm system to get farther east than the Ural Mountain region

 

The
bottom line remains one of net drying for the coming ten days in the central New Lands with the area between the Ural Mountains and Siberia driest. There may be some opportunity for rain July 20-24, but confidence is low and the amount of rain that falls should
also be low. The region will experience net drying for a while and warmer temperatures which may eventually reduce soil moisture and raise a need for rain to support spring wheat and sunseed more ideally.

 

CHINA

Excessive
rain occurred again in the Yangtze River Basin Wednesday with amounts of 3.50 to more than 7.00 inches perpetuating flood conditions