FI Morning Grain Comments 06/20/23

Jun 20, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Mixed
to lower trade this morning from profit taking after prices hit multi-month highs overnight. The weather forecast calls for rain bias WCB this week but not all areas will see rain. US temperatures will be warmer this week, facilitating net drying. Lower WTI
crude oil, weakness in equities, and slightly higher USD are also weighing on commodities. We look for a 2-point decline in G/E soybean and corn crop ratings and steady for spring and winter wheat when update by USDA this afternoon.
Over
a 2-day period, September Malaysia palm futures traded 32 ringgit lower to 3727 and Sep. cash decreased $5.00/ton to $855.00/ton. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by 105 points this morning and meal $10.00 higher. By June 21, the EPA will roll out final
decisions for US mandates (RFS) for 2023, 2024 and 2025. Perception is for higher advanced fuels partially offset by lower conventional fuel versus December proposal.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of June 16 (net in 000)

 

Weather

7-day

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with low confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 20, 2023

  • Northern
    Europe rainfall is expected to increase later this week into next week easing long term dryness over time
  • Eastern
    Russia’s New Lands will experience cooler than usual temperatures and periods of rain later this week into next week improving soil moisture and crop conditions
  • India’s
    monsoon is expected to start performing better late this week and most of next week easing dryness in much of the nation and supporting a better environment for planting of summer crops
  • Recent
    rain in western and central Alberta, Canada soaked the ground and induced some local flooding
  • Partial
    relief occurred to a portion of Alberta’s dry region in the southeast during the weekend, but many areas still need greater rain and not much is expected for a while
  • Manitoba,
    Canada and the U.S. Dakotas as well as parts of Minnesota and western Nebraska will get waves of rain during the next ten days improving soil moisture that has been limited at times recently
  • Too
    much rain has fallen recently from southeastern Mississippi through southern Alabama, southern Georgia and northern Florida with 2.00 to 7.00 inches common and local totals over 10.00 inches
  • The
    U.S. Carolinas and Virginia will be wettest this week while the Delta and other areas in the southeastern U.S. dry down for a little while
  • Lower
    eastern U.S. Midwest crop areas are expected to be a little wetter in the coming week to ten days
  • The
    heart of the U.S. Midwest will get some rain next week, but amounts are still advertised to be light leaving crop moisture stress an ongoing concern
  • U.S.
    Midwest temperatures will not be hot enough to induce serious crop stress, but until greater rain falls plant stress will continue in central parts of the region
  • Rain
    during the long U.S. holiday weekend was beneficial in Iowa and Nebraska as well as some immediate neighboring areas
  • Saskatchewan,
    Canada will be drying down over this coming week to ten days, although soil moisture is still rated good enough to protect many crops from the drier bias
  • Mexico
    drought remains quite serious and unchanging over the next ten days

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
June 20:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • US
    corn, cotton, soybean, spring wheat and winter wheat condition, 4pm
  • China’s
    3rd batch of May trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities