FI Morning Grain Comments 06/15/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USD
was down 49 points and WTI higher by 102 cents. A drier US forecast is supporting prices this morning. CPC has a grim outlook for summer North American weather (see weather headlines). After the release of the US weekly drought monitor, several comments/tweets
are flying around, including one that stated Illinois alone during the April 1-June 10^th period is driest on record since 1988, second driest since data going back to 1951. Class one degradation was most notable for MI, IL, IA, and parts of WI &
MN. . Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange lowered their soybean estimate to 20.5 million tons. India palm oil imports declined last month and SBO and sunflower oil imports were good. India cut their import duty on SBO and sunoil to 12.5% vs 17.5%. Russia again
stated they are looking at not renewing the grain export deal. EU crops are shrinking due to unfavorable weather.

 

NOPA
crush is due out at 11 am CT.

 

Fund
estimates as of June 14 (net in 000)

 

Weather

Reuters
headlines on CPC El Nino update:

U.S.
WEATHER FORECASTER CPC: EL NIÑO CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AND EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN

U.S.
CPC: EL NIÑO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER 2023-24

U.S.
CPC: JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2023 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE U.S.

U.S.
CPC: JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT LAKES

U.S.
CPC: JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS, PARTS OF MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHERN ROCKIES, FLORIDA PENINSULA

U.S.
CPC: HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (MORE THAN 50 %) OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, GULF COAST, AND EAST

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 15, 2023

• No
  major changes overnight
• Tropical
  Cyclone Biparjoy will reach the northwest coast of Gujarat, India this evening and will bring with it some torrential rain, a storm surge and some windy conditions
• Remnants
  of the storm will move through Rajasthan Friday into the weekend with some rain reaching as far east as Uttar Pradesh; most of the moisture from the storm will be welcome, despite some flooding
• U.S.
  Midwest dryness will continue from eastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri to western Wisconsin and parts of Illinois over the coming week to nearly 10 days
• Canada’s
  Prairies are still expecting some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the next ten days, but some of the rain will continue erratic and light leaving a greater need for more rain
• Argentina
  rainfall will continue well below normal leaving western wheat areas too dry
• Northern
  Europe rainfall will continue restricted in this first week of the outlook especially from northeastern France through Germany, but the following week should trend wetter
• Russia’s
  eastern New Lands are only expecting partial relief to dryness over the next two weeks, although there will be no excessive heat for a while
• There
  is some potential for frost and light freezes in Russia’s northeastern New Lands this weekend and next week
  
• India’s
  monsoonal rainfall will continue minimal in this first week of the outlook, but conditions may begin to improve after June 22; rain will be most significant in association with Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy in the north through the weekend
• Australia’s
  rainfall will be greatest near the southern coast over the next ten days
• Northern
  China (north of the Yellow River) will be driest over the next ten days leaving very good crop weather for the remainder of nation