FI Morning Grain Comments 05/26/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Fundamental
news for the agriculture markets is light. Geopolitical developments and global weather are in focus. Quiet morning with soybeans and meal slightly lower and soybean oil a little higher. WTI is higher and USD lower. Grains are lower on hope Black Sea exports
will gradually increase.

 

 

 

Weather

51%
of the US mainland is experiencing drought, compared to 53% last week.

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 26, 2022

• France
  will continue to struggle for meaningful moisture. A few showers may occur during  mid-week next week and again late in the first week of June, but resulting rainfall may not be enough to  seriously improve the moisture profile
• Other
  areas in Europe will see a better mix of weather, although dryness will continue in Spain and less than usual precipitation will fall in the U.K.
• Some
  relief is expected from dryness in southeastern Europe
• Western
  and northern Russia will continue wet biased over the next ten days
• North
  China Plain will continue dry biased for at least the next ten days and soil moisture is becoming depleted raising concern about rain-fed summer crops, but there is still plenty of time for improvement
• Southern
  and northeastern China will remain wet
• Australia
  will see a good mix of weather for planting wheat, barley and canola
• India’s
  pre-monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will occur normally over the next ten days
• No
  changes in South America today
• Argentina
  will be cold with an ongoing need for moisture in western wheat areas
• Southern
  Brazil, northeastern Argentina and Paraguay will be wet biased for a while maintaining moisture abundance in wheat and late season grain areas
• coffee,
  citrus and sugarcane areas are facing no threat of damaging cold anytime soon
• Coolness
  from Argentina will eventually reach into southern Brazil in about ten days, but early indications suggest no serious threat to Safrinha crops
• U.S.
  weather looks favorably mixed with alternating periods of rain and sunshine in most major crop areas
  
• Next
  week’s high pressure ridge in the eastern U.S. is unlikely to  persist for very long and the short term bout of sunshine and warm weather will be excellent for field progress and crop development
• Less
  frequent rain in the southwestern Plains will be welcome over the next two weeks, although precipitation will still occur to support some of the dryland crops; including cotton, corn and sorghum in West Texas

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
May 26:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  releases World Sugar Markets and Trade outlook
• Russian
  grain forum starts in Sochi
• HOLIDAY:
  France, Germany, Indonesia

Friday,
May 27:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Overall
light.

USDA
export sales for old crop soybeans came in at the low end of expectations while new-crop was at the upper end of expectations. Old crop sales included a reduction by China of 108,400 tons.

Soybean
meal and soybean oil sales were poor. Same with shipments. Corn export sales on a combined crop year basis fell short of expectations. China posted a net reduction of 23,000 tons. Sorghum had a net reduction of 4,100 tons for 2021-22. Pork sales were good
at 36,700 tons. China took 5,300 tons. All wheat sales were below the average amount for this time of year.

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims May 21: 210K (est 215K; prev 218K)

US
Continuing Claims May 14: 1346K (est 1310K; prev 1317K)

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q1 S: -1.5% (est -1.3%; prev -1.4%)

US
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 S: 5.1% (est 5.2%; prev 5.2%)

US
Personal Consumption Q1 S: 3.1% (est 2.8%; prev 2.7%)

US
GDP Price Index Q1 S: 8.1% (est 8.0%; prev 8.0%)

Canadian
Retail Sales (M/M) Mar: 0.0% (est 1.4%; prev 0.1%; prevR 0.2%)

Canadian
Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Mar: 2.4% (est 2.1%; prev 2.1%; prevR 1.8%)

Canadian
Payroll Employment Change Mar: 118.1K (prev 142.9K)

 

Corn

·        
US corn futures are lower in part to thoughts Ukraine corn exports could gradually increase. Fundamental news for the agriculture markets is light. Geopolitical developments and global weather are in focus.

·        
WTI is higher and USD lower.

·        
The Baltic Dry index decreased
194 points or 6.2% to 2,933 points.

·        
Russia will open two safe seaway passages for Ukraine exports.

·        
A UN official plans to visit Moscow later this week to discuss resuming fertilizer exports. 

·        
Weekly US ethanol production increased 23,000 barrels from the previous week to 1.014 million barrels per day (bbl). This was the largest weekly increase since the week ending May 4, 2022.  

·        
Ethanol stocks decreased 79,000 barrels to 23.712 million, second consecutive weekly decline. 

·        
USDA increased their food price inflation index for 2022 to a range of 6.5 to 7.5%. This would be the highest annual price increase since 1980 (all food). 
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/food-price-outlook/#Consumer%20Price%20Index

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up slightly and chicks placed up slightly. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 8, 2022, through May 21, 2022 for the United States were 3.73 billion. Cumulative
placements were down slightly from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Turkey’s TMO started buying corn and lowest prices was thought to be $402.00 per ton c&f. They are seeking 175,000 tons of feed corn for shipment between June 7 and June 30.

 

What
Do We Know About the Impact of Late Planting on U.S. Average Soybean Yield?

Irwin,
S. “What Do We Know About the Impact of Late Planting on U.S. Average Soybean Yield?”
farmdoc daily (12):77, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 25, 2022.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/05/what-do-we-know-about-the-impact-of-late-planting-on-u-s-average-soybean-yield.html

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans & meal are lower and soybean oil slightly higher. News is light.

·        
We are reading that Argentina soybean oil export bookings are starting to increase after India lowered their crude SBO import duty.

·        
Palm oil futures hit a three week high.

·        
Malaysian palm oil ended 150 ringgit per ton higher at 6,533 and cash was up $15/ton at $1,565 ton.

·        
SGS reported May 1-25 palm exports at 1.112 million tons, up 24 percent from same period month earlier.

·        
China September soybean futures were down 0.1%, meal down 0.4%, SBO 0.2% lower and China palm oil down 1.2%.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO 80 points higher and meal $0.30 short ton lower. 

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oil prices were unquoted this morning (rape lower from this time yesterday morning). Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were unchanged.  

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to sell 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on May 27.

·        
China plans to sell 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on June 1.

·        
The USDA seeks 5,710 tons of packaged veg oil for use in export programs for shipping July 1-25 on June 1, with notice following day.

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures extended losses on ongoing thoughts Black Sea exports will gradually increase but there are still many issues to sort out.

·        
Yesterday the Russian Defense Minister said they will open two sea corridors from Ukraine ports. Meanwhile Moscow rejected the US and EU claim that Russia has blocked exports from Ukraine and accused the West of creating the situation
by imposing sanctions.

·        
Turkey is in talks with Russia and Ukraine over the grain export corridor.

·        
USDA Attaché pegged the India wheat crop at 99 million tons, lowest forecast we have seen to date. Last week India projected 106.41 million tons.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045

·        
Yesterday a Russian Defense Minister said they will open two sea corridors from Ukraine ports.

·        
Iran and Russia agreed on 5 million tons of wheat imports to Iran.

·        
51% of the US mainland is experiencing drought, compared to 53% last week.

·        
September Paris wheat fell 0.75 to 403.75 euros a ton at the time this was written.

·        
Spring wheat plantings are expected to remain slow for the upper GP and parts of Canada.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on May 29 for shipment within 40 days.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

USDA Export Sales

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  5/19/2022

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	-1.9	490.8	461.4	99.4	6,982.6	8,267.6	64.3	757.8
SRW	-8.2	138.5	154.7	53.5	2,731.6	1,712.7	22.7	702.3
HRS	2.9	480.4	541.5	76.2	5,045.1	7,229.1	113.3	907.0
WHITE	4.5	168.5	388.2	68.8	3,202.2	6,240.7	45.9	572.7
DURUM	0.4	0.5	28.6	0.4	195.9	653.8	0.0	64.4
TOTAL	-2.3	1,278.6	1,574.4	298.2	18,157.4	24,103.9	246.3	3,004.0
BARLEY	0.0	5.2	2.2	0.0	15.3	26.8	0.0	8.6
CORN	151.6	14,335.4	19,439.7	1,821.1	44,720.6	49,137.4	58.3	5,638.1
SORGHUM	-4.1	1,225.3	1,306.7	192.5	5,536.1	5,931.3	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	276.8	10,224.8	4,274.9	539.5	49,260.2	57,244.2	443.0	11,818.1
SOY MEAL	159.6	2,681.7	2,097.7	187.5	7,839.4	7,989.3	24.2	411.2
SOY OIL	6.2	111.4	58.8	1.8	559.9	608.0	0.0	0.0
RICE
L G RGH	11.2	142.1	225.5	8.8	1,110.0	1,402.8	4.0	6.0
M S RGH	0.0	8.1	16.4	0.5	12.9	24.5	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	5.1	2.5	0.3	48.5	36.8	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	9.9	45.4	0.1	77.5	110.8	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	17.2	88.7	58.6	2.8	666.1	537.2	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	1.3	185.2	201.3	13.4	333.1	478.2	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	29.9	439.1	549.7	25.9	2,248.2	2,590.3	4.0	6.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	37.0	5,280.1	3,316.5	318.5	9,618.7	12,230.1	95.4	3,150.8
PIMA	4.1	98.9	164.3	5.5	377.2	633.1	1.3	51.5

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period May 13-19, 2022.

Wheat:  Net
sales reductions of 2,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Italy (20,000 MT), Nigeria (8,200 MT), the Philippines (5,500 MT), Canada
(2,900 MT), and Japan (1,700 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), were more than offset by reductions for Mexico (38,200 MT) and unknown destinations (2,700 MT).  Net sales of 246,300 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for the Philippines (60,000 MT), Japan (59,600
MT), Taiwan (40,000 MT), Mexico (36,800 MT), and Honduras (32,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (1,000 MT) and Nigeria (1,000 MT).  Exports of 298,200 MT were down 14 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (110,000 MT), Mexico (84,700 MT), the Philippines (60,500 MT), Nigeria (41,800 MT), and Canada (800 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 151,600 MT for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down 63 percent from the previous week and 73 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (112,900 MT, including 148,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases
of 39,600 MT), Colombia (55,900 MT, including 53,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,300 MT), Venezuela (20,600 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), Canada (20,100 MT, including decreases of 2,500 MT), and Mexico (17,200 MT, including
decreases of 11,700 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (57,000 MT), unknown destination (54,900 MT), and China (23,000 MT).  Net sales of 58,300 MT for 2022/2023 reported for unknown destinations (36,800 MT) and Costa Rica (32,600 MT),
were offset by reductions for Mexico (11,200 MT).  Exports of 1,821,100 MT were up 34 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (793,000 MT), Japan (352,200 MT), Mexico (308,500 MT),
Canada (75,500 MT), and South Korea (63,300 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, options were exercised to export 65,000 MT to unknown destinations from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 343,300 MT is for unknown destinations (235,000 MT), South Korea (65,000 MT), Italy (34,300
MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).  For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 35,400 MT is for Italy.

Export
Adjustment:  Accumulated
exports of corn to unknown destinations were adjusted down 21,677 MT for week ending May 12th.  This shipment was reported in error.

Barley:
No net sales or exports were reported for the week.   

Sorghum: 
Total net sales reductions of 4,100 MT for 2021/2022 were down 94 percent from the previous week and down noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The reduction includes decreases of 9,200 MT for China.  Exports of 192,500 MT were unchanged from the previous
week, but down 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to China.

Rice: 
Net sales of 29,900 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 74 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Haiti (15,200 MT), Honduras (5,200 MT), Guatemala (3,100 MT), Canada (2,100 MT), and El Salvador (2,000
MT, including 400 MT switched from Guatemala).  Total net sales of 4,000 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for Guatemala.  Exports of 25,900 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were
primarily to Japan (12,300 MT), El Salvador (5,300 MT), Guatemala (3,000 MT), Canada (2,500 MT), and Mexico (1,700 MT).

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Late
Reporting: For
2021/2022, net sales totaling 100 MT of medium, short and other classes, milled rice was reported late for Israel. 

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 276,800 MT for 2021/2022 were down 63 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Egypt (132,600 MT), Japan (123,600 MT, including 20,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases
600 MT), the Netherlands (66,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (58,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), and Mexico (54,700 MT, including decreases of 3,100 MT), were
offset by reductions primarily for China (108,400 MT), Taiwan (54,800 MT), and unknown destinations (6,900 MT).  Net sales of 443,000 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for unknown destinations (284,000 MT), Mexico (95,000 MT), and Taiwan (64,000 MT).  Exports
of 539,500 MT were down 44 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (169,700 MT), Mexico (90,300 MT), Egypt (67,600 MT), Indonesia (66,400 MT), and the Netherlands (66,000 MT). 

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales of 28,700 MT were reported for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 91,100 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 159,600 MT for 2021/2022 were down 46 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Colombia (60,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (23,000 MT), Honduras (17,500 MT, including decreases of 600
MT), Canada (15,100 MT, including decreases of 9,000 MT), and Costa Rica (12,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Morocco (1,200 MT) and Belgium (800 MT).  Net sales of 24,200 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for Costa Rica (14,700 MT), Panama (7,100 MT),
and Canada (2,400 MT).  Exports of 187,500 MT were down 2 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (48,600 MT), Ecuador (31,700 MT), Mexico (29,200 MT), Colombia (16,900
MT), and Morocco (16,800 MT).  

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 6,200 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Jamaica (7,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (1,700 MT).  Exports of 1,800 MT were down 40 percent
from the previous week and 86 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Guatemala (800 MT), Mexico (400 MT), and Canada (400 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 37,000 RB for 2021/2022 were down 67 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for India (21,200 RB, including 1,800 RB switched from Honduras and decreases of 200 RB), Vietnam (9,800 RB,
including 4,100 RB switched from Nicaragua, 1,700 RB switched from Japan, 1,100 RB switched from South Korea, and decreases of 1,800 RB), China (6,300 RB), Bangladesh (4,200 RB, including 1,800 RB switched from Turkey), and Pakistan (2,000 RB, including decreases
of 1,100 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Nicaragua (4,400 RB), Honduras (1,800 RB), Turkey (1,300 RB), Thailand (1,100 RB), and South Korea (1,100 RB).  Net sales of 95,400 RB for 2022/2023 primarily for El Salvador (22,300 RB), Turkey (19,800
RB), Pakistan (19,100 RB), Guatemala (10,600 RB), and Peru (9,600 RB), were offset by reductions for Costa Rica (1,100 RB).  Exports of 318,500 RB were down 7 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were
primarily to China (90,100 RB), Turkey (50,300 RB), Vietnam (49,500 RB), Pakistan (46,600 RB), and India (18,600 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 4,100 RB were up 80 percent from the previous week, but down 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
were primarily for India (3,000 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), Pakistan (500 RB), and Taiwan (400 RB).  Total net sales of 1,300 RB for 2022/2023 were reported for India.  Exports of 5,500 RB were down 47 percent from the previous week and 50 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (1,100 RB), Pakistan (1,100 RB), Austria (1,000 RB), China (1,000 RB), and Indonesia (500 RB). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, options were exercised to export 4,400 RB to Vietnam from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 40,600 RB is for Vietnam (37,400 RB) and Pakistan (3,200 RB). 

Exports
for Own Account: For
2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 RB, all Vietnam.

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 416,900 pieces for 2022 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (208,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 19,700 pieces), Mexico (64,000 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 1,500 pieces), South Korea (54,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 2,100 pieces), Italy (46,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 300 pieces), and Thailand (21,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 6,800
pieces), were offset by reductions for Germany (200 pieces) and India (100 pieces).  In addition, total net sales of 7,000 calf skins were reported for Italy.  Exports of 422,800 pieces were down 4 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior
4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (184,800 pieces), South Korea (133,800 pieces), Mexico (46,700 pieces), Thailand (26,400 pieces), and Italy (7,400 pieces). 

Net
sales of 110,400 wet blues for 2022 were down 54 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Italy (42,000 unsplit, including decreases of 4,400 unsplit and 100 grain splits), Vietnam (36,100 unsplit),
China (17,600 unsplit, including decreases of 11,200 unsplit), Thailand (10,400 unsplit, including decreases of 9,700 unsplit), and Brazil (3,000 unsplit), were offset by reductions for India (300 grain splits).  Exports of 138,000 wet blues were down 22 percent
from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (44,400 unsplit), Italy (26,900 unsplit and 6,700 grain splits), Vietnam (27,100 unsplit), Thailand (16,500 unsplit), and India (8,000 grain splits). 
Net sales of 65,300 splits were down 90 percent from the previous week and 83 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for China (40,000 pounds), Taiwan (40,000 pounds), and South Korea (3,900 pounds), were offset by reductions for Vietnam
(18,600 pounds).  Exports of 440,000 pounds were down 40 percent from the prior 4-week average and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was to Vietnam.

Beef: 
Net sales of 20,000 MT for 2022 were down 14 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (8,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT, including decreases of 700 MT),
China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Hong Kong (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Exports of 17,500 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (5,200 MT), South Korea (4,500 MT), China (2,500 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT). 

Pork: 
Net sales of 36,700 MT for 2022 were up 52 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (15,100 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Canada (5,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (5,300
MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (3,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Colombia (2,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (100 MT).  Total net sales of 100 MT for 2023 were reported for Australia. 
Exports of 33,000 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,700 MT), China (5,200 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), South Korea (2,900 MT), and Canada (1,600 MT).