FI Morning Grain Comments 05/13/21

May 13, 2021







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Lower
trade in all major CBOT commodities overnight on follow through profit taking and improving US weather for spring crop development. News is extremely light. Several countries are on holiday today, including Indonesia, Malaysia, India, France & Germany.  Traders
should monitor the Miss. River barge traffic flow after the US Coast Guard closed a section of the river after finding a crack in a major roadway bridge.  See below what we put together late yesterday.  Strategie Grains left their EU-27 soft wheat production
unchanged at 129.6 million tons, up 8.5% from last year’s 119.4 million. 

 

WASHINGTON,
May 13, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 680,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year. 

 

 

Yesterday
the US Coast Guard closed a section of the Mississippi River near Memphis, to all vessel traffic, due to a several problems including a crack in a steel box beam for the I-40 bridge.  Earlier today there were 16 vessels with a total of 229 barges affected. 
Reuters later reported 400 barges were affected.  If the bridge is closed for months, this could halt or slow barge traffic movement if ships can only pass through selected parts of the river. 

 

Barge
movement may resume much quicker than cars passing over the bridge, but it should take a few days for investigators to complete a complete physical inspection.  Corn spreads could be in focus.  62 percent of the corn that left ports so far in 2021 (Jan 1-Aprill
22) were out of the Miss. Gulf (17.430 million tons vs. 53.386 tons total, port only).  See attached PDF and recent news link from the local area. 
https://dailymemphian.com/section/metro/article/21880/i-40-mississippi-river-bridge-could-be-closed-months#/questions/

 

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Weather

Next
7 days

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World
Weather, Inc.

TODAY’S
HIGHLIGHTS

  • Canada’s
    Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains may see a boost in rainfall during the second week of the two week outlook
    • Dry
      conditions will prevail in this first week of the outlook
    • Temperatures
      will trend very warm to hot early next week ahead of the rising potential for rain
  • Frequent
    rain in a part of the central and southern Plains will be closely monitored for possible wet weather disease in wheat areas and if the rain prevails too long it could raise a quality issue for early maturing crops in the south
  • Lower
    Midwest and northern Delta precipitation will also become substantial next week slowing fieldwork and inducing local flooding possibly
  • Net
    drying is expected in the southeastern U.S. for a while
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest dryness will continue a concern in unirrigated areas of the region
  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha crop areas will receive no meaningful rainfall for the next week to 8 or 9 days and then a few showers may evolve lightly
    • Rain
      after May 23 in Brazil’s corn country is too intense and may be too widespread on the GFS model runs, but some showers are expected
  • The
    European continent will continue wet over the next ten days
  • Russia’s
    New Lands are continuing to dry out  and this will become a market interest soon as the regions turns warmer than usual and becomes a little too dry
    • The
      area includes the southern Ural Mountains region, northern Kazakhstan and neighboring areas to the north in Russia’s southeastern New Lands and perhaps also impacting eastern portions of the lower Volga River Basin
      • This
        region is not too dry today and is expected to see aggressive spring planting and early crop development until the soil becomes too dry
  • A
    developing tropical cyclone off the lower west coast of India will be closely monitored as it quickly intensifies and moves up the west coast of India
    • Landfall
      is advertised near the Gujarat/Pakistan border early to mid-week next week
      • The
        storm could have quite an impact if it is as intense as advertised and follows the advertised path
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia and Luzon Island, Philippines still need greater rain
  • West
    Africa will receive lighter than usual rainfall for a while in the coming week
  • Australia
    will be dry over the next ten days
  • Argentina
    weather will remain favorable for its harvest
  • China
    will continue too wet in the Yangtze River Basin
  • Hebei,
    Shandong and Liaoning, China will dry down over the next ten days, but should not become threateningly dry

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
May 13:

  • New
    Zealand April food prices, 10:45am local
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    net-export sales for corn, soy, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Dubai, France, Germany

Friday,
May 14:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 6:30pm London
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia, Dubai

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

US
export sales for the soybean complex were poor, corn at the high end of expectations and wheat within expectations.  The net reduction in old-crop corn were a marketing year low and included reductions primarily for China of 334,300 tons and unknown destinations
of 192,600 MT.  Corn 2021-22 net sales of 2,083,600 MT were primarily for China (1,360,000 MT), unknown destinations (254,000 MT), and Mexico (219,500 MT).  Sorghum sales were 71,100 tons and included China.  Old crop soybean sales were a low 94,300 tons but
it does not appear China cancelled any commitments.  Shipments of meal were ok but soybean oil was only 2,100 tons.  Pork sales slowed to 14,700 tons with China taking only 3,000 tons.  All wheat sales of 30,300 tons old crop and 268,000 tons new crop were
within expectations and included Mexico and unknown as the primary destinations for new-crop. 

 

 

 

Macro

US
Initial Jobless Claims May 8: 473K (est 490K; prevR 507K; prev 498K)

US
Continuing Claims May 1: 3655K (est 3650K; prevR 3700k; prev 3690K)

 

US
PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Apr: 6.2% (est 5.8%; prev 4.2%)

US
PPI Ex Food, Energy (Y/Y) Apr: 4.1% (est 3.8%; prev 3.1%)

US
PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade (Y/Y) Apr: 4.6% (est 4.3%; prev 3.1%)

US
PPI Final Demand (M/M) Apr: 0.6% (est 0.3%; prev 1.0%)

US
PPI Ex Food, Energy (M/M) Apr: 0.7% (est 0.4%; prev 0.7%)

US
PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade (M/M) Apr: 0.7% (est 0.3%; prev 0.6%)

 

Corn

 

University
of Illinois

Kuck,
G. and G. Schnitkey. “An Overview of Meat Consumption in the United States.”
farmdoc daily (11):76, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 12, 2021.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2021/05/an-overview-of-meat-consumption-in-the-united-states.html

 

Export
developments.

  • WASHINGTON,
    May 13, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 680,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year. 

 

Soybeans

  • Malaysian
    palm oil: (uses settle price)    .

ON
HOLIDAY

 

 

Export
Developments

  • On
    May 18 USDA seeks a total of 4,770 tons of packaged oil for use in Title II, PL480 and the McGovern-Dole Food for Education export programs. Shipment was set for June 16-July 15 (July 1-31 for plants at ports).

 

Wheat

 

Export
Developments.

  • Results
    awaited:  Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks 89,425 tons US milling wheat on May 13.  One consignment of 42,505 tons is sought for shipment between July 2 and July 16. A second consignment of 46,920 tons is sought for shipment between July 19 and Aug.
    2.
  • Japan
    seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on May 19 for arrival by October 28. 
  • Japan
    seeks 122,180 tons of food wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia this week. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited:  South
Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp seeks 134,994 tons of rice from Vietnam, China, the United States and Australia, on May 13, for arrival between September 2021 and January 2022.

 

USDA export sales

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period April 30-May 6, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 30,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (67,900 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Malaysia
(36,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Burma (16,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Italy (15,800 MT), and the Republic of South Africa (11,000 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily
for unknown destinations (97,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 268,000 MT were primarily for Mexico (96,900 MT), unknown destinations (76,700 MT), Honduras (24,000 MT), Jamaica (22,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (20,000 MT).  Exports of 523,100 MT
were down 11 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (200,300 MT), Mexico (84,000 MT), South Korea (76,100 MT), Algeria (62,700 MT), and Italy (36,800 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, new optional origin sales of 8,800 MT were reported for Spain.  The current outstanding balance of 63,900 MT is for Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales reductions of 113,400 MT for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (168,700 MT, including decreases of 48,700 MT), South Korea (116,800 MT,
including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 19,300 MT), Japan (81,400 MT, including 86,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 61,400 MT), Colombia (46,000 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations
and decreases of 4,000 MT), and Guatemala (41,000 MT, including 23,600 MT switched from El Salvador, 8,000 MT switched from Costa Rica, and 8,000 MT switched from Nicaragua), were more than offset by reductions primarily for China (334,300 MT) and unknown
destinations (192,600 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 2,083,600 MT were primarily for China (1,360,000 MT), unknown destinations (254,000 MT), Mexico (219,500 MT), Guatemala (84,600 MT), and Japan (71,000 MT).  Exports of 1,544,100 MT were down 30 percent
from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (355,700 MT), Mexico (308,100 MT), Japan (286,800 MT), South Korea (247,800 MT), and Egypt (59,200 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 268,500 MT is for unknown destinations (189,500 MT) and South Korea (79,000 MT). 

Barley: 
Net sales reductions of 2,000 MT for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Reductions were reported for Japan (2,000 MT).  Total net sales for 2021/2022 of 2,000 MT were for Japan. 
Exports of 400 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Canada (200 MT).

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 71,100 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 63 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for China (139,100 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations
and decreases of 7,400 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (68,000 MT).  Exports of 183,800 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 52 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (183,700 MT, including
58,700 MT – late) and Mexico (100 MT).

Late
Reporting:
For 2020/2021, exports totaling 58,700 MT of sorghum were reported late to China.

Rice: 
Net sales of 27,600 MT for 2020/2021 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (20,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (2,700 MT), Guatemala (2,200 MT), Saudi Arabia
(1,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and Jordan (300 MT).  Exports of 28,300 MT were down 77 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (15,500 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), Haiti
(2,600 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), and Saudi Arabia (2,200 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 94,300 MT for 2020/2021 were down 43 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Indonesia (60,300 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), Mexico
(24,500 MT, including decreases of 2,000 MT), Venezuela (18,000 MT), Japan (13,100 MT, including 10,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), and Colombia (12,500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (41,200
MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 102,500 MT were for Mexico (98,000 MT) and Japan (4,500 MT).  Exports of 285,200 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (101,800
MT, including 19,800 MT – late), Indonesia (71,600 MT), Japan (36,000 MT), Turkey (22,500 MT), and Ireland (10,600 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Late
Reporting:
For 2020/2021, exports totaling 19,800 MT of soybeans were reported late to Mexico.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 74,600 MT for 2020/2021 were down 63 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (23,400 MT, including decreases of 6,800 MT), Canada (19,300 MT), Venezuela (15,000 MT), Nicaragua
(8,800 MT, including 6,600 MT switched from Honduras), and the Philippines (3,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Honduras (5,700 MT) and Belgium (1,400 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 32,000 MT were for Mexico (17,000 MT), Honduras (7,500 MT), and Canada
(7,500 MT).  Exports of 194,800 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (48,400 MT), Mexico (47,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (31,700 MT), Canada (31,000
MT), and Colombia (17,600 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 800 MT for 2020/2021 were down 87 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Guatemala (500 MT) and Mexico (400 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (100 MT).  Exports of 2,100 MT
were down 90 percent from the previous week and 84 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to El Salvador (1,000 MT), Mexico (600 MT), Canada (300 MT), and Honduras (100 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 54,400 RB for 2020/2021 were down 15 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (26,200 RB, including 5,800 RB switched from Indonesia and 1,800 RB switched from Hong Kong), China
(14,500 RB, including 2,600 RB switched from Vietnam and 200 RB switched from Hong Kong), Bangladesh (7,800 RB), Pakistan (6,200 RB, including 900 RB switched from Vietnam and decreases of 4,300 RB), and Thailand (5,600 RB, including 2,700 RB switched from
Indonesia, 2,600 RB switched from Taiwan and decreases of 400 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Indonesia (4,800 RB), Taiwan (2,400 RB), and Hong Kong (2,000 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 72,100 RB were for Pakistan (39,600 RB), Mexico (23,800
RB), Honduras (4,000 RB), Nicaragua (2,500 RB), and Thailand (2,200 RB).  Exports of 277,200 RB were down 39 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Vietnam (73,700 RB), China (47,500 RB), Pakistan
(41,900 RB), Turkey (25,900 RB), and Bangladesh (15,900 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 3,800 RB were down 66 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Honduras (2,300 RB) and India (1,300 RB). 
Total net sales for 2021/2022 of
200 RB were for Japan.  Exports of 19,300 RB were down 22 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (5,000 RB), India (4,700 RB), Pakistan (4,500 RB), Vietnam (1,700 RB), and South
Korea (1,200 RB).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 17,500 RB is for Vietnam (9,500 RB), China (7,600 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins:  Net sales of 384,600 pieces for 2021 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (325,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases
of 4,900 pieces), South Korea (29,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,100 pieces), Mexico (17,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 900 pieces), Vietnam (1,800 whole cattle hides), and Thailand (900 whole cattle hides, including decreases
of 200 pieces), were offset by reductions primarily for Cambodia (400 pieces), Brazil (200 pieces), and Japan (200 pieces).  In addition, total net sales of 10,400 calf skins were for Italy. 
Exports of 425,800 pieces were up 19 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (314,300 pieces), South Korea (36,600 pieces), Thailand
(26,100 pieces), Mexico (22,900 pieces), and Cambodia (10,200 pieces). 

Net
sales of 66,600 wet blues for 2021 were up 88 percent from the previous week, but down 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Italy (35,200 grain splits, including decreases of 16,900 unsplit), China (10,300 unsplit, including decreases
of 300 unsplit), Mexico (9,400 unsplit and 400 grain splits, including decreases of 800 unsplit and 400 grain splits), Vietnam (8,200 unsplit), and Brazil (7,900 unsplit), were offset by reductions primarily for Taiwan (2,600 unsplit), Italy (2,100 unsplit),
and Japan (1,700 unsplit).  Exports of 142,900 wet blues were up 10 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (43,200 unsplit), Italy (30,700 unsplit and 9,100 grain split), Vietnam (31,800
unsplit), Thailand (11,100 unsplit), and Mexico (9,900 grain splits and 900 unsplit).  Net sales reductions of 4,400 splits resulting in increases for Vietnam (1,600 pounds), were offset by reductions for Taiwan (4,500 pounds) and China (1,400 pounds).  Exports
of 284,500 pounds were to Vietnam (160,000 pounds) and Taiwan (124,500 pounds). 

Beef: 
Net
sales of 13,100 MT reported for 2021 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (4,100 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (2,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South
Korea (2,000 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT).  Exports of 17,700 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to Japan (5,100 MT), South Korea (5,100 MT), China (2,600 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). 

Pork: 
Net sales of 14,700 MT reported for 2021 were down 69 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (5,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China
(3,000 MT, including decreases of 1,600 MT), Japan (2,900 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), the Dominican Republic (800 MT), and Canada (700 MT, including decreases of 700 MT).  Exports of 41,900 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (14,200 MT), China (12,300 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).

May
13, 2021                                                    1                FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  5/6/2021





























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

-16.9

682.5

1,244.6

223.0

8,002.0

8,641.4

84.9

903.3

   SRW    

-0.1

208.5

197.9

26.7

1,627.4

2,242.9

61.1

767.6

   HRS     

48.5

874.9

1,241.6

83.1

6,828.8

6,551.3

109.6

904.7

   WHITE   

-17.0

707.5

800.0

153.5

5,915.9

4,476.4

12.5

676.5

   DURUM  

15.8

48.6

100.8

36.8

631.8

883.3

0.0

7.4

     TOTAL

30.3

2,521.9

3,584.8

523.1

23,006.0

22,795.2

268.0

3,259.5

BARLEY

-2.0

2.7

10.1

0.4

25.9

39.7

2.0

22.2

CORN

-113.4

22,696.2

13,181.6

1,544.1

45,047.5

25,345.3

2,083.6

4,874.8

SORGHUM

71.1

1,521.3

1,463.5

183.8

5,708.0

2,125.9

0.0

1,191.0

SOYBEANS

94.3

4,765.0

5,701.8

285.2

56,614.1

34,390.4

102.5

6,926.0

SOY MEAL

74.6

1,999.0

2,260.5

194.8

7,701.0

7,377.7

32.0

482.7

SOY OIL

0.8

76.8

245.9

2.1

592.8

776.1

0.0

0.6

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

22.2

259.4

254.9

2.0

1,301.3

1,154.8

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

5.3

34.2

0.0

23.5

57.7

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.2

2.8

17.2

0.2

36.2

45.9

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.3

45.5

57.5

0.2

109.7

56.5

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

2.8

27.8

79.9

4.5

528.4

741.4

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

2.0

221.2

184.9

21.4

447.1

523.0

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

27.6

562.0

628.6

28.3

2,446.3

2,579.2

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

54.4

3,706.2

5,604.5

277.2

11,561.2

10,557.9

72.1

1,807.0

   PIMA

3.8

168.7

140.5

19.3

607.9

405.6

0.2

4.0

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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