PDF attached

 

Good
morning
.

 

Lower
trade in all major CBOT commodities overnight on follow through profit taking and improving US weather for spring crop development. News is extremely light. Several countries are on holiday today, including Indonesia, Malaysia, India, France & Germany.  Traders
should monitor the Miss. River barge traffic flow after the US Coast Guard closed a section of the river after finding a crack in a major roadway bridge.  See below what we put together late yesterday.  Strategie Grains left their EU-27 soft wheat production
unchanged at 129.6 million tons, up 8.5% from last year’s 119.4 million. 

 

WASHINGTON,
May 13, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 680,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year. 

 

 

Yesterday
the US Coast Guard closed a section of the Mississippi River near Memphis, to all vessel traffic, due to a several problems including a crack in a steel box beam for the I-40 bridge.  Earlier today there were 16 vessels with a total of 229 barges affected. 
Reuters later reported 400 barges were affected.  If the bridge is closed for months, this could halt or slow barge traffic movement if ships can only pass through selected parts of the river. 

 

Barge
movement may resume much quicker than cars passing over the bridge, but it should take a few days for investigators to complete a complete physical inspection.  Corn spreads could be in focus.  62 percent of the corn that left ports so far in 2021 (Jan 1-Aprill
22) were out of the Miss. Gulf (17.430 million tons vs. 53.386 tons total, port only).  See attached PDF and recent news link from the local area. 
https://dailymemphian.com/section/metro/article/21880/i-40-mississippi-river-bridge-could-be-closed-months#/questions/

 

Chart, histogram

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Table

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Weather

Next
7 days

Map

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World
Weather, Inc.

TODAY’S
HIGHLIGHTS

  • Canada’s
    Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains may see a boost in rainfall during the second week of the two week outlook
    • Dry
      conditions will prevail in this first week of the outlook
    • Temperatures
      will trend very warm to hot early next week ahead of the rising potential for rain
  • Frequent
    rain in a part of the central and southern Plains will be closely monitored for possible wet weather disease in wheat areas and if the rain prevails too long it could raise a quality issue for early maturing crops in the south
  • Lower
    Midwest and northern Delta precipitation will also become substantial next week slowing fieldwork and inducing local flooding possibly
  • Net
    drying is expected in the southeastern U.S. for a while
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest dryness will continue a concern in unirrigated areas of the region
  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha crop areas will receive no meaningful rainfall for the next week to 8 or 9 days and then a few showers may evolve lightly
    • Rain
      after May 23 in Brazil’s corn country is too intense and may be too widespread on the GFS model runs, but some showers are expected
  • The
    European continent will continue wet over the next ten days
  • Russia’s
    New Lands are continuing to dry out  and this will become a market interest soon as the regions turns warmer than usual and becomes a little too dry
    • The
      area includes the southern Ural Mountains region, northern Kazakhstan and neighboring areas to the north in Russia’s southeastern New Lands and perhaps also impacting eastern portions of the lower Volga River Basin
      • This
        region is not too dry today and is expected to see aggressive spring planting and early crop development until the soil becomes too dry
  • A
    developing tropical cyclone off the lower west coast of India will be closely monitored as it quickly intensifies and moves up the west coast of India
    • Landfall
      is advertised near the Gujarat/Pakistan border early to mid-week next week
      • The
        storm could have quite an impact if it is as intense as advertised and follows the advertised path
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia and Luzon Island, Philippines still need greater rain
  • West
    Africa will receive lighter than usual rainfall for a while in the coming week
  • Australia
    will be dry over the next ten days
  • Argentina
    weather will remain favorable for its harvest
  • China
    will continue too wet in the Yangtze River Basin
  • Hebei,
    Shandong and Liaoning, China will dry down over the next ten days, but should not become threateningly dry

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
May 13:

  • New
    Zealand April food prices, 10:45am local
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    net-export sales for corn, soy, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Dubai, France, Germany

Friday,
May 14:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 6:30pm London
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia, Dubai

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

US
export sales for the soybean complex were poor, corn at the high end of expectations and wheat within expectations.  The net reduction in old-crop corn were a marketing year low and included reductions primarily for China of 334,300 tons and unknown destinations
of 192,600 MT.  Corn 2021-22 net sales of 2,083,600 MT were primarily for China (1,360,000 MT), unknown destinations (254,000 MT), and Mexico (219,500 MT).  Sorghum sales were 71,100 tons and included China.  Old crop soybean sales were a low 94,300 tons but
it does not appear China cancelled any commitments.  Shipments of meal were ok but soybean oil was only 2,100 tons.  Pork sales slowed to 14,700 tons with China taking only 3,000 tons.  All wheat sales of 30,300 tons old crop and 268,000 tons new crop were
within expectations and included Mexico and unknown as the primary destinations for new-crop.