FI Morning Grain Comments 05/10/23

May 10, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

US
CPI was viewed supportive for US equities and selected commodity markets. WTI crude oil was down 11 cents, USD 38 points lower and US equities higher.
Overall
news is light outside palm oil headlines. Traders are waiting for Black Sea grain deal news. Soybeans are lower on good planting US weather, soybean oil lower following weakness in palm, and meal higher on product spreading. US wheat and corn are lower from
follow through selling over improving US weather and expectations talks over the Black Sea grain deal will settle this week. MPOB palm oil April S&D was slightly bullish, but palm oil prices fell Wednesday from slowing exports and technical selling. Malaysia
end of April palm oil stocks hit a 13-month low and were down 10.5% from March. From a year ago, stocks fell 8.8 percent. Stocks of 1.5 million tons were slightly below expectations. Production during April was 1.196 million tons, 103,550 tons below expectations.
Imports were a little less than expected while exports of 1.075 million tons were 125,553 tons below an average trade guess and at a 12-month low.

 

A
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 11,000 thousand barrels to 987k (980-997 range) from the previous week and stocks up 152,000 barrels to 23.515 million.

 

Fund
estimates as of May 9

 

 

Weather

Map Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 10, 2023

  • Western
    Canada’s Prairies and British Columbia will be facing a new heatwave this weekend into early  next week
    • A
      large part of the Prairies will need significant rain following the heatwave
  • Rain
    in Canada’s Prairies will be restricted over the next ten days with the greatest rain Friday into the weekend in southeastern most Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba
  • U.S.
    Northern Plains rainfall is expected to be widespread and significant late this week and into the weekend with field working delays likely for a little while, but the moisture will be good for the western Dakotas and immediate neighboring areas where the soil
    is still a little dry
    • Southeastern
      South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota as well as eastern Nebraska will also benefit from some of this rain
    • Field
      working delays are likely in eastern North Dakota and Minnesota
  • Texas
    rainfall is still advertised to be substantial this weekend with most of West Texas getting significant rain that will bolster soil moisture for improved planting potentials in corn, sorghum and cotton areas
  • Lighter
    than usual precipitation is still expected in the lower and eastern Midwest during the next ten days, although sufficient rain will fall to support aggressive planting and a favorable environment for crop emergence and establishment
  • Eastern
    parts of the U.S. Delta and the southeastern states will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine with planting to accelerate in many areas that were experiencing slow progress previously
  • Argentina
    rainfall is still advertised to be minimal during the next ten days
  • Brazil
    weather will continue supporting a general dry down in field conditions in most Safrinha corn and cotton areas which is normal for this time of year, but some timely rain will soon be needed for late planted crops
  • Drying
    is expected in portions of Russia over the next ten days, but the impact will be mostly good for crops
  • Some
    relief to dryness is expected in northern Kazakhstan and neighboring areas of Russia
  • No
    changes in India, China or Australia weather was noted overnight
  • Italy
    and the western Balkan Countries of Europe are still expecting heavy rain and some flooding in the next ten days
  • Some
    relief from dryness is expected in eastern Spain, northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia mostly this weekend, but sooner in Tunisia and Algeria

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Wednesday,
May 10:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board’s data for May output, exports and stockpiles
  • Malaysia’s
    May 1-10 palm oil exports
  • Sugar
    production and cane crush data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative)

Thursday,
May 11: