FI Morning Grain Comments 03/15/21

PDF attached

 

Morning.
 

 

Mostly
lower trade to start as news over the weekend was light.  US precipitation was about expected with a boost to soil moisture across the Great Plains and much of the WCB.  Argentina will see rain this week.  Later today NOPA will update the industry with February
crush and trade estimates are looking at a large daily crush rate.  Taiwan is in for corn.  China sold 2.3 million tons of wheat from auction.  Today’s action may follow outside markets.  WTI was down 55 cents and USD up 16 points.  US equities were mixed
earlier this morning. 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

 

 

 

Source:
World Weather inc.

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
March 15:

• USDA
  Export Inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia
  to announce crude palm oil export tax rate for April (tentative)
• Monthly
  MARS bulletin on EU crop conditions
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• India
  Feb. vegetable oil imports (tentative)
• Malaysia’s
  March 1-15 palm oil export data

Tuesday,
March 16:

• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

Wednesday,
March 17:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)

Thursday,
March 18:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• China
  customs to publish trade data, including import numbers for corn, wheat, sugar and pork
• USDA
  total milk production

Friday,
March 19:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  cattle on feed

Saturday,
March 20:

• China
  3rd batch of Jan.-Feb. trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities. No timing

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Traders
missed the net long positions in soybeans and soybean oil (less than expected). Lower trade Sunday night could be taken under consideration.  The net longs for soybean oil managed money futures and options are down for the third consecutive week, while SBO
futures traded higher. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The
CME Group intends to increase both spot-month and all-months-combined speculative position limits effective March 15.

https://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/files/cme-group-Rule-562-pending.pdf

 

 

Macros

US
Empire Manufacturing Mar 17.4 (est 14.5; prev 12.1)

–
Six Month Business Conditions 36.4 (prev 34.9)

–
Employment 9.4 (prev 12.1)

–
Prices Paid 64.4 (prev 57.8)

–
New Orders 9.1 (prev 10.8)

Canadian
Manufacturing Sales (M/M) Jan 3.1% (est 2.5%; prev 0.9%)

Canadian
Existing Home Sales (M/M) Feb: 6.6% (prev 2.0%)

Canadian
Housing Starts Feb 245.9K (est 247.5K; prev 282.4K)

 

Corn

• Corn
  futures are
  mixed on lack of direction.  China is expected to auction off corn this week, giving the trade an indication of current demand.
  
• We
  look for US export inspections for corn to increase over the next several weeks as imports shift away from soybeans. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• Taiwan’s
  MFIG seeks up to 65,000 tons of corn, optional origin (NA or SA) on March 17 for May 27-June 15 shipment. 
  

 

Soybeans

• The
  soybean complex is
  lower in part to less than expected speculative position (CFTC COT) in soybean and soybean oil, higher USD and lower WTI crude oil.  Direction for a Monday morning is limited on light news and mixed offshore values.  Malaysian palm was up again, for the 9^th
  consecutive day, on tight supplies and long speculation. 
• ITS
  reported March 1-15 Malaysian palm oil exports down 4.4 percent to 507,283 tons from 530,545 tons February 1 – 15, AmSpec also reported a drop in palm exports, by 4.6 percent to 517,725 tons. 
  
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil prices were up about 15 euros from this time Friday and meal mostly 2-4 euros lower. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading CBOT SBO 30 points lower and meal $0.80 short ton higher.
  
• China
  cash crush margins on our analysis were 182 cents, up from 178 cents late last week and compares to 168 cents year earlier. 
  

China
futures:

Malaysian
palm oil:

 

 

Export
Developments

• Iran
  seeks 30,000 tons of sunflower oil and 30,000 tons of soybean oil on March 18 for March and April shipment. 
  
• The
  USDA CCC seeks 2,030 tons of packaged oil on March 16 for shipment Apr 16 – May 15.

 

CBOT
SBO vs. palm

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures turned higher on technical buying after a mixed open.  The US saw great precipitation over the weened excluding higher protein wheat country. 
  
• China
  sold a large 2.3 million tons of wheat from auction, representing 56 percent of what was offered. 
  
• EU
  May milling wheat was down 1.50 at 221.75 euros as of 8:30 am CT. 
• Russian
  wheat export prices, 12.5% protein, Black Sea was at $280 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $5 from the previous week-IKAR. 
  

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of animal feed barley, on March 16 for shipment between October 1 and November 15. 
  

• Pakistan
  seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on March 16 for April-August shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 208,217 tons of rice, on March 25 for arrival in South Korea in 2021 between May 1 and Oct. 31.  64,444 tons of non-glutinous brown rice is sought from the United States. 
Rest from Thailand, China, Australia and Vietnam.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on March 18.

·        
Bangladesh also seeks 50,000 tons of rice on March 28.

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on March 29, from China or Egypt.