FI Morning Grain Comments 03/06/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. News
is thin.

 

USDA
24-H: Export Sales to Japan and Unknown Destinations…Private exporters reported the following sales activity:

-110,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2022-23 marketing year

-182,400
metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022-23 marketing year

 

Slow
start to the second week of March as traders pull back from trading hot temperatures for Argentina. Black Sea grain corridor discussion are in focus but that was expected. Rains were near expectations for South America and the US over the weekend. Argentina
will see rain this week across western Cordoba, La Pampa, and southwestern Buenos Aires. Brazil’s Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goias, Sao Paulo, north Parana, east Santa Catarina, northeast RGDS. Rio Grande do Sul is in need for additional rain as that area remains
dry. Conab may reported a slight decrease in Brazil corn production mid this week. Soybean quality for Brazil is also starting to deteriorate due to too much rain bias northern and central areas. On Friday we saw heavy South America producer selling due to
higher futures. This morning weakness in WTI crude oil is weighing on soybeans, corn and wheat. CBOT meal futures are higher on product spreading. SBO is lower from weakness in US energy futures. Look for losses to be limited on China’s economic rebound. They
look for GDP to increase 5 percent this year. Funds still hold large, long positions for corn, beans and meal. Look for wheat shorts to possibly shore up positions this week. US drought conditions eased last week but with winter wheat coming out of dormancy,
more rain is needed. Malaysia May palm futures were down 69 ringgit to 4,283 and May cash was down $7.50 at $1,005.00/ton. China soybeans were near down 0.2%, meal up 0.6%, SBO up 0.2% and palm oil futures down 0.9%. Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanged
to 25 euros lower from this time Friday morning and meal mostly 5-14 euros higher. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 36 points this morning and meal $2.00 short ton lower.  CFTC reported fund positions were about as expected for early February.
Look for them catchup on weekly positions this week into next week.

 

 

CFTC
February 7 results below Conab estimates, current fund estimates below.

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 6, 2023

• U.S.
  snowfall was heavy during the weekend in parts of the Dakotas, from northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana into southeastern Michigan and throughout the southern two thirds of New England and eastern New York
• Snow
  totals reached over 17 inches in the northeastern states and over 11 inches in Michigan while up to 11 inches occurred in North Dakota
  
• Significant
  rain also fell across the heart of the eastern Midwest
• More
  snowy weather is likely across the northern Plains, Great Lakes region and northeastern states in the coming week due to the surge of cold air coming south out of Canada this week and early next week
• Impressive
  snowfall is expected in some areas with more than 20 inches possible by this time next week in a part of the northern Plains and upper Midwest
• Mild
  to warm weather is likely in the southern U.S.
• No
  rain precipitation is expected in the west-central through the southwestern Plains during the next ten days
• Some
  moisture will reach into the lower Delta and far southeastern states, but the cold does not advance as far to the south as previously advertised leaving some areas from south Texas to Florida and Georgia with only a brief period of dryness relief next week
• South
  and West Texas will stay dry for a while as will northeastern Mexico
• California
  and western portions of both Washington and Oregon are expecting another week to ten days of active weather with frequent precipitation that will promote abundant runoff this spring
• Argentina
  rainfall will be greatest in the west and southern parts of the nation over the coming week, but next week “some” relief from dryness may occur in central and east-central parts of the nation
• Brazil
  weather will be favorably mixed over the next couple of weeks with rain and sunshine expected in all areas that should prove to be good for late season crop development, but harvesting of soybeans and Safrinha planting could be sluggish at times
• India
  will get some showers this week that will help hold back the temperatures, but no general improvement in winter crop conditions is expected
• Some
  of China’s Yangtze River Basin will get rain in the coming ten days, but a few northern and eastern areas may experience net drying
• Net
  drying is likely elsewhere in the nation
• Warming
  in China is bringing on more aggressive rapeseed development and some wheat is beginning to green up
• Central
  Queensland will get rain in the coming week and today’s computer models have suggested southern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales may get some rain late this weekend and next week
  

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Monday,
March 6:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• Malaysia’s
  March 1-5 palm oil export data
• Bursa
  Malaysia Palm Oil Conference and 2023 Outlook, Kuala Lumpur, day 1
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Tuesday,
March 7:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• US
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Bursa
  Malaysia’s palm oil conference and 2023 outlook, Kuala Lumpur, day 2
• ABARES
  Outlook 2023 conference, Canberra, day 1
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Wednesday,
March 8:

• USDA’s
  World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• Bursa
  Malaysia Palm Oil Conference and 2023 Outlook, Kuala Lumpur, day 3
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• ABARES
  Outlook 2023 conference, Canberra, day 2

Thursday,
March 9:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases data on production, yield and area for corn and soybeans

Friday,
March 10:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• Coffee
  festival in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

USDA
March report estimates

 

 

 

 

Due
out March 9

 

CFTC
COT through February 7

Funds
in Chicago wheat shorts hit mid 2019 levels. Prices haven’t but appears bearish for futures. However, might be oversold relative to corn fund + futures price.

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures lower
on fund selling. Look for US energy prices to direct price direction this week.

·        
Ukraine grain corridor discussions are advancing but that may not matter a half a year from now if they scale back on production.

 

Export
developments.

• USDA
  24-H: Export
  Sales to Japan and Unknown Destinations…Private exporters reported the following sales activity:

*110,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2022/2023 marketing year

*182,400
metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year

• Taiwan’s
  MFIG seeks up to 65,000 tons of corn on March 8 for April 25 and May 25 shipment.
  

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Futures are getting harder to trade these days as prices fluctuate. We remain bullish meal based on Argentina crop problems.

·        
Malaysia May palm futures were down 69 ringgit to 4,283 and May cash was down $7.50 at $1,005.00/ton. 

·        
China soybeans were near down 0.2%, meal up 0.6%, SBO up 0.2% and palm oil futures down 0.9%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were
unchanged to 25 euros lower from this time Friday morning
and meal mostly 5-14 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 36 points this morning and meal $2.00 short ton
lower. 

 

Reuters
trade estimates for Malaysian palm oil S&D due out March 10.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures are back below $7.00 per bushel (Chicago May) after lack of fresh news and lower outside commodity markets. 

·        
Paris May wheat futures hit about a one year low on Monday.
Paris
May wheat was lower by 5.50 euros earlier at 270.00 per ton. 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of durum wheat on March 9 for April 1-15 and April 16-30 shipment.

·        
China will auction off 140,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on March 8. They sold 141,700 tons last week, or about 100 percent offered at 2795 yuan per ton.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of barley for arrival in Japan by August 31 on March 8.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat and 120,000 tons of barley on March 7 and March 8, respectively.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported