FI Morning Grain Comments 01/28/21

PDF attached

 

 

Morning.

 

Flooding
in Brazil coupled by Chinese buying of US products sets up for a higher trade Thursday in most CBOT futures. Look for a possible two-sided trade in wheat on bargain buying. 

 

WASHINGTON,
January 28, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

–Export
sales of 1,700,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year; and

–Export
sales of 213,600 metric tons of corn received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

 

USDA
export sales for new crop soybeans knocked it out of the park but old crop failed to live up to expectations, despite USDA 24-hour sales announced.  Corn sales were above expectations and may provide support.  Meal and soybean oil shipments were excellent. 
Wheat was within expectations. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

            Conditions
in Brazil and Argentina are not changing and that leaves Brazil crop moisture beneficial in most of the key grain and oilseed production areas. Argentina is expected to still have some pockets of drying that will need to be watched, but the nation (like Rio
Grande do Sul, Brazil) is doing better than some feared. Talk of flooding in the coming week from Corrientes and some neighboring areas of Paraguay and eastern most parts of Chaco and Formosa into Rio Grande do Sul may not cause much damage to crop, but it
will give the market place something else to talk about. Flooding may be most significant in Paraguay and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul where the ground is wettest from previous rain.

            India’s
winter crops are dry and will need some moisture in February to support the best yields. South Africa rainfall and temperatures will be nearly ideal for the best possible production potential.

            China
and Europe winter crops are still dormant, and most are poised to develop favorably in the spring.

            Australia’s
sorghum produced in New South Wales will improve with expected rain this week, but Queensland unirrigated crop areas still need rain.

            Overall,
weather today will likely support a mixed influence on market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT: Precipitation in U.S. hard red winter wheat earlier this week will improve soil moisture for use in the spring as it melts.  Little to no crop damage occurred from bitter cold in Montana or southwestern parts of Canada’s Prairies
in the past week, despite snow free conditions and temperatures near the damage threshold.  Snow cover will be extremely important in the west-central and northwestern U.S. Plains late next week through the middle of February as temperatures turn bitterly
cold.

Other
winter crops in North America, Europe and the western CIS have not experienced any crop damaging cold this year, so far, and mild to warm weather in the coming week will keep that potential very low. The same is true for China. India’s winter crops need rain
in February to induce the best yield potentials. North Africa rainfall will continue limited in the driest areas of southwestern Morocco and northwestern Algeria for the next ten days. A boost in precipitation is needed in the Middle East.

            Overall,
weather today will likely induce a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Jan. 28:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  releases Citrus Report on global demand and supply
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Paris
  Grain Day virtual conference, day 2
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Friday,
Jan. 29:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received
• U.S.
  cattle inventory

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

 

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures are
  higher as China continues to buy US corn.  New contract highs basis the nearby are expected to fall into place again today and possibly Friday on demand talk.
  
• The
  USD is taking a step back while WTI crush is about 50 cents higher.    

 

Corn
Export Developments

·        
Awaited: Algeria seeks 40,000 tons of corn on Jan 28 for Feb 25-Mar 15 shipment, optional origin. 

·        
WASHINGTON, January 28, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

–Export
sales of 1,700,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year; and

–Export
sales of 213,600 metric tons of corn received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

 

 

Soybean
complex.  

• CBOT
  soybeans
  are higher on Chinese import demand and higher soybean oil values. Malaysia was on holiday but other global veg oil prices appreciated overnight making the CBOT soybean oil contract a target to buy.  Soybean meal should see some support after good shipments
  were reported in the USDA export sales report.  Corn may be the leader today which could aid soybeans.  
• Malaysian
  palm oil futures: 

Holiday

• China
  cash crush margins were 163 cents on our calculation, (156 previous) compared to 190 at the end of last week and to 84 year ago.
  
• China

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

None
reported

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures could trade two-sided is we see a surge in corn futures.  Recent precip across the heart of the Midwest is beneficial for the dormant wheat crop, a supply needed if importers shift global flows from the Black Sea and Argentina this spring.   
  
• EU
  March milling wheat was up 1.25 at 231.00 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

• Results
  of Algeria in for wheat are coming in at the high end of 630,000 tons, more than expected. 
  
• Jordan
  is in for another 120k wheat on Feb 3 and 120k barley on Feb 2. 
• Japan
  bought 60,175 tons of Australian food wheat this week. Original details as follows:
  

  

• Taiwan
  launched an import tender for 85,340 tons of US wheat, set to close Jan 29, for late March through April 22 shipment. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of rice on Feb 3, valid until Feb 10, optional origin. 

·        
Syria is in for 25,000 tons of rice on February 9. 

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT
SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 1/21/2021 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	109.4	1,356.2	1,824.5	146.8	6,001.4	5,901.5	142.5	164.5
SRW	14.4	443.1	409.4	46.8	1,156.6	1,735.1	64.5	209.5
HRS	136.2	1,894.3	1,589.9	163.7	4,513.2	4,427.6	9.0	54.0
WHITE	122.5	2,398.1	1,209.5	147.6	3,349.8	3,015.5	0.0	36.1
DURUM	-2.0	168.0	190.4	0.8	489.8	623.8	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	380.5	6,259.7	5,223.6	505.8	15,510.8	15,703.6	216.0	464.1
BARLEY	0.0	13.3	17.9	0.4	17.2	30.8	0.0	12.5
CORN	1,850.3	29,648.7	11,034.5	1,414.0	19,021.3	10,508.3	0.0	803.4
SORGHUM	185.0	3,358.6	360.8	118.6	2,398.7	779.4	63.0	541.0
SOYBEANS	466.0	12,271.2	6,215.9	2,194.5	45,562.3	25,388.1	1,564.4	3,613.0
SOY MEAL	142.2	2,845.9	3,623.4	348.5	4,052.3	3,445.3	90.0	168.9
SOY OIL	19.1	233.7	224.6	55.9	340.0	324.7	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	116.6	294.9	337.4	29.1	838.7	709.3	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	14.8	18.8	0.0	14.1	16.5	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	10.3	21.8	0.1	23.1	20.4	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.3	53.5	69.1	0.3	52.5	21.0	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	18.0	75.3	138.4	3.9	326.9	525.1	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	10.1	168.5	132.1	24.9	243.1	303.9	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	145.1	617.4	717.6	58.3	1,498.4	1,596.2	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	322.7	6,083.6	7,466.0	275.3	6,395.6	5,048.3	53.6	939.4
PIMA	25.8	271.8	224.4	12.6	373.6	199.4	0.0	1.1

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                        
 Export Sales Highlights 

 This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period January 15-21, 2021. 

Wheat:  Net
sales of 380,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 15 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (130,000 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (67,400 MT,
including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (60,600 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (54,100 MT, including 50,000 MT late–see below), and the Philippines (53,400 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT),
were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (117,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 216,000 MT were reported for Nigeria (138,000 MT), Mexico (60,000 MT), and unknown destinations (18,000 MT).  Exports of 505,800 MT were up 92 percent from
the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (113,000 MT), Mexico (85,000 MT), Indonesia (57,500 MT), the Philippines (57,400 MT), and Sri Lanka (52,400 MT).   

Optional Origin Sales:  For
2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 10,000 MT, all Spain. 

Late
Reporting: For
2020/2021, new sales totaling 50,000 MT were reported late for South Korea. 

Corn:  Net
sales of 1,850,300 MT for 2020/2021 were up 29 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (695,700 MT, including 232,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 26,800 MT), Mexico
(145,600 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Colombia (116,900 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 23,600 MT), Israel (105,000 MT), and unknown destinations (91,300 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (1,200
MT) and Chile (600 MT).  Exports of 1,414,000 MT were up 60 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (518,000 MT), Mexico (233,700 MT), China (141,900 MT), Colombia (90,600 MT),
and South Korea (71,500 MT).    

Optional Origin Sales:  For
2020/2021, options were exercised to export 30,000 MT to Ukraine from other than the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 1,269,400 MT is for South Korea (838,000 MT), unknown destinations (224,000 MT), Taiwan (140,000 MT), China (65,000 MT),
and Ukraine (2,400 MT).   

Barley:  No
net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 400 MT were to Taiwan. 

Sorghum:  Net
sales of 185,000 MT for 2020/2021, resulting in increases for China (253,000 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 60,300 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (68,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales
of 63,000 MT were for China.  Exports of 118,600 MT were down 46 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was China.  

Rice:  Net
sales of 145,100 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (71,600 MT), Honduras (34,500 MT), Haiti (7,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (6,700 MT), and El Salvador (6,000 MT), were offset
by reductions primarily for Singapore (300 MT).  Exports of 58,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Venezuela (26,300 MT), Japan (13,600 MT), Mexico (3,800 MT),
Saudi Arabia (2,700 MT), and Canada (2,700 MT). 

Soybeans:  Net
sales of 466,000 MT for 2020/2021 were down 74 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (322,500 MT, including 195,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 143,200 MT), Mexico
(197,800 MT, including decreases of 29,800 MT), Indonesia (165,300 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 7,700 MT), Egypt (89,700 MT, including 42,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,200 MT), and
Taiwan (72,100 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from China and decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (620,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 1,564,400 MT were reported for unknown destinations (654,000 MT), China
(586,000 MT), the Netherlands (323,000 MT), and Canada (1,400 MT).  Exports of 2,194,500 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,342,500 MT), Mexico (201,800
MT), Egypt (139,700 MT), the Netherlands (131,500 MT), and Indonesia (99,800 MT).   

Exports for Own Account:  For
2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 6,100 MT, all Canada. 

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net
sales of 142,200 MT for 2020/2021 were down 70 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (63,300 MT, including decreases of 3,300 MT), Canada (38,600 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Panama
(33,400 MT), Ecuador (31,400 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and the Dominican Republic (17,500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Morocco (88,800 MT) and unknown destinations (29,000 MT).  Exports of 348,500 MT–a marketing-year
high–were up 46 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Spain (64,700 MT), the Philippines (47,900 MT), Mexico (36,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (34,100 MT), and Ecuador (31,400 MT).  

Soybean Oil:  Net
sales of 19,100 MT for 2020/2021 were down 63 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (6,000 MT), Colombia (5,000 MT), Peru (4,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,100 MT), and El Salvador
(1,400 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (300 MT).  Exports of 55,900 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 89 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (31,000 MT),
the Dominican Republic (8,200 MT), Peru (7,400 MT), Colombia (5,500 MT), and Guatemala (2,000 MT).  

Cotton:  Net
sales of 322,700 RB for 2020/2021 were up 10 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Turkey (65,900 RB), Vietnam (62,400 RB), Pakistan (57,800 RB), China (36,400 RB), and South Korea (24,000
RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 53,600 RB primarily for South Korea (15,800 RB), Thailand (10,600 RB), Pakistan (8,400 RB), Japan (8,000 RB), and Vietnam (6,700 RB), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (7,100 RB).  Exports of 275,300 RB were down 15
percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China (112,400 RB), Vietnam (47,900 RB), Pakistan (36,400 RB), Mexico (22,300 RB), and Bangladesh (11,700 RB.  Net sales of Pima totaling 25,800 RB were
up 8 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for India (9,900 RB), Pakistan (6,100 RB), Peru (3,400 RB), Vietnam (1,200 RB), and Egypt (1,100 RB).  Exports of 12,600 RB were up 51 percent from
the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (4,800 RB), Vietnam (2,600 RB), China (2,200 RB), Peru (1,200 RB), and Egypt (900 RB).  

Exports for Own Account:  For
2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 5,300 RB were primarily to China (2,900 RB) and Vietnam (1,700 RB).  Exports for own account totaling 1,800 RB to China were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding
balance of 8,600 RB are for China (5,900 RB), Vietnam (1,700 RB), and Indonesia (1,000 RB).  

Hides
and Skins:  Net
sales of 321,900 pieces for 2021, primarily for China (161,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 50,600 pieces), South Korea (89,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 11,200 pieces), Mexico (31,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases
of 1,500 pieces), Thailand (17,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 400 pieces), and Turkey (6,100 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (300 pieces).  Additionally, net sales of 1,300 kip skins were for China.  Exports of
366,000 pieces for 2021 were primarily to China (211,600 pieces), South Korea (60,700 pieces), Mexico (57,300 pieces), Thailand (15,700 pieces), and Brazil (6,300 pieces).   

Net
sales of 131,800 wet blues for 2021, were primarily for Vietnam (33,400 unsplit, including decreases of 200 unsplit), Italy (13,200 grain splits and 12,600 unsplit), Mexico (14,700 unsplit and 10,500 grain splits), Thailand (22,900 unsplit, including decreases
of 100 unsplit), and Brazil (14,000 unsplit).  Exports of 141,000 wet blues for 2021 were primarily to Vietnam (64,700 unsplit), China (38,600 unsplit), Thailand (14,100 unsplit), Italy (7,800 unsplit and 3,200 grain splits), and Brazil (5,300 unsplit).  Net
sales of splits, 1,042,600 pounds for 2021, were primarily for Vietnam (918,900 pounds, including decreases of 9,500 pounds).  Exports of 621,100 pounds were primarily to Vietnam (532,800 pounds). 

Beef:  Net
sales of 28,800 MT reported for 2021, increases primarily for Japan (9,100 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (8,100 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (3,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), China (3,300 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT,
including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Kuwait (100 MT).  Exports of 17,400 MT were primarily to South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (4,900 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT), China (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (1,100 MT). 

Pork:  Net
sales of 52,900 MT reported for 2021, increases primarily for Mexico (18,900 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), China (13,900 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), the Philippines (6,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (4,100 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), and South Korea (3,100 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for El Salvador (300 MT).  Exports of 39,600 MT were primarily to China (12,500 MT), Mexico (11,900 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT), and
Canada (2,100 MT). 

January 28, 2021                                 1             FOREIGN
AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA

                                                                                              
SUMMARY OF EXPORT TRANSACTIONS
                                                                                 REPORTED UNDER THE DAILY SALES REPORTING SYSTEM
                                                                                                FOR PERIOD ENDING JANUARY 21, 2020 

 

COMMODITY                        DESTINATION                                QUANITY
(MT)                            MARKETING YEAR         

 

HRW WHEAT (101)               NIGERIA   
                                     138,000 MT 1/                                2021/2022

CORN                                      
JAPAN                                            128,000 MT 1/                                 2020/2021

CORN                                      
ISRAEL                                           100,000 MT 1/                                 2020/2021

CORN                                      
UNKNOWN                                    336,500 MT 1/                                 2020/2021

SORGHUM                              
CHINA                                              60,000 MT 1/                                 2020/2021

SORGHUM                              
CHINA                                              63,000 MT 1/                                 2021/2022

SOYBEANS                             
CHINA                                            272,000 MT 1/                                 2020/2021

SOYBEANS                             
MEXICO                                         163,290 MT 1/                                 2020/2021

 

1/ Export Sales.