FI Mid Morning Grain Comments 10/05/20

Oct 5, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

USDA
reported 160,020 tons of corn to Mexico.  Traders are mulling over the data due out this week.  Wildcard is what will USDA report for soybean and corn production at the end of this week, which could trump the recent rally post stocks report.  With China on
holiday, news is steady.  SA weather turned slightly unfavorable and more rain is needed for Argentina. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

WEATHER
ISSUES OF THE DAY

  • Russia’s
    Southern Region remains too dry and no relief is likely for two weeks
  • Kazakhstan
    remains too dry and no relief is expected for two weeks
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will be hot and dry this week and may cool down this weekend into next week, but western areas are unlikely to get much rain
  • Northwestern
    U.S. Plains remain quite dry and winter crops are not establishing well
  • No
    change in Argentina dryness is expected from central and northern Cordoba and parts of central Santa Fe to northwestern parts of the nation maintaining worry over winter and spring crops
  • Brazil
    heat and dryness will last through Friday and then some relief is expected during the weekend and especially next week in center west and center south crop areas
  • Western
    Australia is still too dry, although some showers will occur in the far south part of the state late Wednesday into Thursday
  • Queensland,
    Australia still needs significant rain for summer crop planting
  • Tropical
    Storm Gamma will move into the northwestern coast of Yucatan Peninsula during mid-week and will likely dissipate there
    • Heavy
      rain is expected to cause some flooding, but not much crop of world interest comes from the region
  • Tropical
    Storm Delta formed between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands this morning and will move across western Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, become a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico later this week and then move inland through southeastern Louisiana Friday
    • The
      system was expected to become a Category Two hurricane by the time it approaches the Louisiana coast
    • The
      storm will move through Alabama and Mississippi and impact parts of Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina during the weekend
  • China
    will experience less rain this week; including the water logged northeast
  • Central
    India will trend wetter again next week after this week’s grain is greatest in the south and far eastern states
  • South
    Africa weather is slowly improving with rain in the south and east
  • Southeastern
    Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes region will continue wetter biased for several more days and then get a brief break from rain

 

WEATHER
TO WATCH IN MORE DETAIL

  • U.S.
    harvest weather will remain good for the coming week in the Midwest and Great Plains
    • Southeastern
      states harvesting will advance well through mid-week, but could deteriorate with the onset of tropical moisture during the end of this week and the weekend
    • Lower
      and eastern portions of the Delta, Alabama and the remainder of Mississippi as well as eastern Louisiana will be impacted by Tropical Storm Delta eventually
      • The
        storm will damage some additional cotton in Alabama and parts of Mississippi and could negatively impact eastern sugarcane in Louisiana
        • Flooding
          will be widespread from southeastern Louisiana into northern Alabama and southern Tennessee
    • Frontal
      system will bring rain to the Pacific Northwest this weekend and across the Great Plains Sunday into early next week and in the heart of the Midwest during early to mid-week next week.
      • Rain
        totals in the eastern Midwest will range from 0.25 to 0.75 inch  with a few totals to 1.00 inch
      • Rain
        totals in hard red winter wheat areas will be 0.20 to 0.75 inch in the east while many areas in the high Plains region will be dry.
      • Moisture
        totals in the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and the western Corn Belt will range from 0.30 to 0.80 inch with a few totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches; wettest in the upper Midwest
      • Rainfall
        in the Pacific Northwest will be less than 0.50 inch in key crop areas while much greater precipitation occurs in western Washington State and in the northern Rocky Mountain region
    • Second
      frontal system will pass through the northern Plains and Midwest mid- to late-week next week
      • Moisture
        totals will vary from 0.10 to 0.60 inch in the Great Lakes region and eastern Midwest while limited rain occurs in the Great Plains and Delta
      • Temperatures
        will turn much colder behind the event
  • U.S.
    temperatures will trend warmer this week until the weekend frontal system arrives
    • Highs
      in the Midwest will rise to the 70s and lower 80s Tuesday into Wednesday