PDF Attached

 

 

CBOT
soybean complex, corn and wheat sold off post USDA report.  US wheat futures remained underpinned on Russia’s plan to impose a wheat export tax and quota.  The USDA report was viewed as neutral.  Earlier in the day USDA export sales showed soybean complex
sales on the lower end of expectations and grains lower than what was reported from the previous week. 
MPOB
issued a bearish Malaysian palm production report but third month palm futures rallied 47 ringgits. China made no changes to their corn & soybean balances. 
Conab surprised the trade by lowering total Brazil corn production by 2.3 million tons to 102.59 million, 6.8 million below a Bloomberg trade estimate.  Conab reported Brazil soybean production at 134.45 million tons, 0.5 below the previous
month and 1.2 million tons above a Bloomberg trade average. 

 

USDA
December S&D

USDA
S&D was that that eventful for the US balance sheets.  USDA did take China corn imports up 3.5 million tons to 16.5 million (China CASDE @ 7.0) and China wheat imports up by 0.5 million to 8.5 million tons.  USDA left China soybean imports unchanged.  Argentina
corn production was lowered 1 million tons and Brazil unchanged.  USDA also lowered Argentina soybean production by 1 million and left Brazil unchanged.  Brazil soybean exports of 85 million tons were left unchanged.  Global corn stocks were lowered 2.5 million
tons, world wheat by 3.9 million and world soybeans by 0.9 million. 

 

US
soybean stocks were lowered a less than expected 15 million bushels to 175 million.  USDA took the US crush up 15 million bushels to 2.195 billion versus 2.165 billion for 2019-20.  US soybean meal exports were taken up 500,000 short tons and imports were
raised 200,000 short tons.  Meal production was increased 300,000.  Soybean oil production was raised 175 million pounds.  USDA lifted the US soybean export forecast by 150 million pounds resulting in a 25 million pound boost to ending stocks.  USDA left the
US corn balance unchanged.  Traders were looking for a slight downward revision in US corn stocks.  For wheat, they lowered imports by 5 million bushels and raised exports by 10 million to 985 million.  We are at 995 million for US exports. 

 

 

We
think US wheat prices traded out of alignment post USDA report based on US wheat by class changes in USDA’s December update. 

 

 

Weather

 

National
Weather Service proposes limiting data availability because of bandwidth shortage

https://www.chron.com/news/article/National-Weather-Service-proposes-limiting-data-15789570.php

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY

  • Argentina
    temperatures trended hotter Wednesday with afternoon highs more solidly in the 90s Fahrenheit resulting in accelerated drying; extreme highs in the middle and upper 90s to 102 degrees occurred in most of the west
  • Argentina
    was dry Wednesday and that in combination with the heat accelerated moisture stress in the driest crop areas; however, some rain developed in southern Buenos Aires overnight
    • Rainfall
      through dawn today varied up to 0.25 inch in southern parts of Buenos Aires which was not enough to counter moisture losses from Wednesday, but additional rain will occur today
  • Argentina
    weather will be warm biased and will include erratically distributed rainfall during the coming ten days
    • The
      moisture will all be welcome, but its distribution will leave some areas drier than others and concern over production potential will rise in the driest areas
    • Additional
      rain in western and central Buenos Aires today will produce 0.10 to 0.60 inch of moisture with a few totals pushing up close to 1.00 inch
      • Most
        of the precipitation will be too light for a notable change in soil moisture
    • Argentina’s
      rain will shift northward Friday into Saturday with the greatest amounts and coverage in northeastern parts of the nation Saturday when favorable soil moisture will be maintained in Corrientes, northern Santa Fe and southeastern Chaco
    • Some
      periodic showers and thunderstorms will occur over the following week in northern parts of the nation leaving the south in a net drying mode with increasing crop stress
    • Southern
      Argentina’s best rain potential does not return until the week of Dec. 21 and confidence is low over its distribution
  • Brazil’s
    rainfall over the next ten days will be least significant in Bahia and southeastern Piaui, but there will be some occasionally rainfall in a few west-central and southwestern Bahia locations to benefit cotton, corn and soybeans
    • Eastern
      cocoa and coffee production areas will not get much rain for a while
  • Brazil
    rainfall will also be a little light in northern Mato Grosso do Sul, southeastern Bolivia and some immediate neighboring areas, but there will be at least some rain in these areas periodically to prevent a complete absence of moisture
  • Minas
    Gerais, Brazil will be the wettest state in Brazil during the coming two weeks with some potential for localized flooding
    • Most
      of the rain in Minas Gerais will be spread out over time helping to limit the potential for serious flooding
    • Neighboring
      areas of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro will also be sufficiently moist while rain in Sao Paulo will be a little sporadic
  • Another
    round of welcome rain will come out of Paraguay and into Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina and southwestern Sao Paulo, Brazil Sunday into Wednesday of next week
    • This
      rain event will be well timed after some drying occurs through the weekend and will help to maintain a very good moisture environment for developing summer crops
    • Rainfall
      of 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals to more than 4.00 inches will result
  • Rainfall
    in Brazil may become more sporadic and light again for a little while during the second week of the outlook and a close watch on its distribution both prior to and during that period of time is warranted to ensure sufficient amounts of rain occur to support
    the best crop development potential.
  • Brazil’s
    bottom line is still one of improvement in this coming week to ten days. Greater rain intensity and amounts will be needed in the far south, northeast and in few other random areas. Some production cuts have occurred in many areas, but the key to soybean production
    will be during pod setting and filling which will be evolving later this month and in January. That is the time period that will be most important time in determining yield.
  • Eastern
    Australia’s generalized rain potentials are very low over the coming week, although some scattered showers will occur
    • Rain
      will fall along the lower Queensland and upper New South Wales coast where amounts will be great enough to bolster soil moisture, but only a few agricultural areas will benefit
      • Sugarcane,
        far eastern cotton and far eastern sorghum areas will be most impacted
    • Temperatures
      in eastern Australia will be cooler than they have been during the coming week, but warming is expected again Dec. 16-23
  • Australia’s
    winter crop harvest in the south should be winding down soon and it has been a good harvest season
  • South
    Africa will be favorably mixed with periods of rain and sunshine impacting summer grain, oilseed and cotton production areas
    • Planting
      progress should advance favorably around periods of rain
    • Dryness
      is of most concern today in central and western Free States and eastern Northern Cape
  • Eastern
    China weather has improved recently with less rain allowing rapeseed and southern wheat production areas a chance to dry down after being too wet earlier this season
  • China’s
    weather over the next two weeks will keep most winter crops dormant or semi-dormant and precipitation will concentrate on the Yangtze River Basin where a wintry mix of precipitation types is expected late this weekend into next week
    • Winter
      crops are well established and poised to perform well in the spring
    • Sugarcane
      harvesting in the south will advance relatively well for a while due to expected dry weather
  • India’s
    far south is beginning to dry down
    • Too
      much rain recently has delayed summer crop maturation and harvesting in Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh where some cotton, rice and groundnut quality concerns have evolved
      • Drying
        will get harvest progress back on the right track
  • Central
    and far northern India showers over the next seven days will benefit a few winter crops, but greater rain will be needed in the heart of the nation
    • Most
      winter crops are favorably rated, however, with little change likely
    • Any
      moisture will be welcome and of some benefit to winter crops
  • Southern
    Vietnam and Cambodia will trend wetter than usual late this week and into next week with some of that moisture reaching far southern Thailand as well
    • The
      moisture will delay harvest progress for many crops, but no serious crop quality changes are likely
      • Winter
        crops will benefit, though
  • Routinely
    occurring precipitation is expected in Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia over the next two weeks
    • A
      tropical cyclone has been advertised for southern Philippines late next week, but it is too soon to have high confidence in that event
  • Russia’s
    Southern Region had eastern Ukraine will continue missing significant precipitation for the next ten days leaving dormant winter crops in need for greater soil moisture to be used in the spring
    • Winter
      crops are still not as well established as they should be
    • Showers
      will occur briefly next week, but the resulting moisture will not be very great
  • Greece,
    Bulgaria, eastern and southern Romania, Moldova and western Ukraine will all receive significant moisture late this week into early next week bolstering topsoil moisture for better winter crop establishment and growth potential in the spring
  • Portions
    of the U.K., France and the Iberian Peninsula will also receive periodic rainfall during the next two weeks along with Italy and the eastern Adriatic Sea region
    • Some
      local flooding is possible in many of these areas
  • North
    Africa rainfall will be greatest in northern Algeria and coastal areas of Tunisia during the coming ten days. The moisture will be welcome
    • Some
      moisture will also reach into far north-central Morocco, but there is need for more rain in the remainder of that nation and in particular the southwest
      • Morocco
        continues trying to recover from last year’s drought
  • U.S.
    weather was mostly dry and mild to warm Wednesday; temperatures were well above average in a part of the central states and in neighboring areas of Canada
  • U.S.
    storm late this week will impact areas from eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri to Michigan and New York with rain and some snow
    • Heavy
      snow will impact parts of northern and western Michigan while light snow trails to the southwest into Nebraska and eastern Colorado
    • Another
      weak weather system will move from the central Plains to the Delta and southeastern states this weekend
    • An
      active weather pattern in the Dec 16-25 period will bring another storm to the eastern Midwest, Delta and middle and northern Atlantic Coast States during the middle to latter part of next week followed by a couple of other storm systems moving through the
      eastern United States Dec. 19-25
    • Temperatures
      over the next seven days will be warmer than usual in much of the nation
      • Cooling
        is expected in the western and north-central states Dec. 18-24
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was at +10.17 today and it will remain strongly positive for a while
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week except in the northwest today when a storm system brings moisture to Sonora, Baja California, Sinaloa, northwestern Durango and Chihuahua
    • Rainfall
      of 0.10 to 0.75 inch and local totals to 1.00 inch will result disrupting summer crop harvesting, but benefiting winter crops
    • Southeastern
      Mexico crop areas will only receive light rainfall from scattered showers and harvesting will advance favorably
  • Portions
    of Central America will continue to receive periodic rainfall over the next couple of weeks, but the intensity and frequency will be low enough to support some farming activity
    • Costa
      Rica will be wettest this workweek

·        
West-central Africa will experience greater than usual rainfall over the coming week and some of the moisture might interfere with harvesting and could also induce some isolated flowering of coffee and cocoa in areas that get
the greatest moisture.

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda while rainfall will be greatest over Tanzania

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be limited in North Island and northern parts of South Island over the coming week while showers impact western and southern South Island

    • Temperatures
      will be near to below average

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Image

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Dec. 10:

  • China’s
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply, demand, 10am local
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board releases data on November stockpiles, exports, production, 12:30pm local
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly crop report
  • Agroinvestor
    Russian agriculture conference
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Conab’s
    data on area, output and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil, 7am
  • National
    Grain & Feed Association Country Elevator Conference, 10am
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Friday,
Dec. 11:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

  • USDA
    soybean export sales were a low 569,000 tons, down from 768,100 tons previous week and 1.664 million tons year ago.  China booked 685,400 tons but 459,000 tons of that was switched from unknown. 
  • Soybean
    meal sales were also low at 163,600 tons (shipments 224,400 tons) and soybean oil sales were only 8,400 tons, down from 26,300 tons previous week.  SBO shipments were very good at 51,100 tons and included 34,600 for South Korea and 10,600 tons for China.
  • USDA
    corn export sales were 1.362 million tons, within expectations and down from 1.666 million previous week.  Corn sales included 141,200 tons for China and 422,200 tons for unknown. 
  • USDA
    sorghum export sales came in at 123,000 tons and included 67,900 tons for China. 
  • Pork
    sales were 26,500 tons and included 6,300 tons for China. 
  • USDA
    all-wheat export sales of 616,500 tons were down slightly from 795,800 tons previous week.  China booked 68,300 tons of wheat. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Dec 5: 853K (est 725K; prevR 716K; prev 712K)

US
Continuing Claims Nov 28: 5757K (est 5210K; prevR 5527K; prev 5520K)

US
CPI (M/M) Nov: 0.2% (est 0.1%; prev 0.0%)

US
CPI Ex Food, Energy (M/M) Nov: 0.2% (est 0.1%; prev 0.0%)

US
CPI (Y/Y) Nov: 1.2% (est 1.1%; prev 1.2%)

US
CPI Ex Food, Energy (M/M) Nov: 1.6% (est 1.5%; prev 1.6%)

US
Real Avg Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Nov: 3.2% (prev 3.2%)

US
Real Avg Weekly Earnings (Y/Y) Nov: 4.7% (prev 4.4%)

 

US
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (BCF) 04-Dec: -91 (est -86; prev -1)


Salt Dome Cavern Natural Gas Storage Change (BCF): -7 (prev +12)

 

ECB
GDP Forecasts:

ECB
Sees 2020 GDP Growth At -7.3% (vs. -8% Seen In Sept)

Sees
2021 GDP Growth At 3.9% (vs. 5% In Sept)

Sees
2022 GDP Growth At 4.2% (vs. 3.2% In Sept)

Sees
2023 GDP Growth At 2.1%

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 344,442 tons of corn to Mexico for 2020-21 delivery. 
  • South
    Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) bought 60,000 tons of corn from the United States at an estimated $250.25 a ton c&f for arrival around April 1. 

 

 

Updated
11/30/20

March
corn is
seen
trading in a $4.15 and $4.40 range. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

 

 

Malaysian
end of November stocks fell slightly from the previous month, but it was less than expected (by 25,500 tons).  Palm oil production was reported 56,500 tons below expectations and imports came in 40,100 tons above an average trade guess, but the higher supplies
were more than offset by lower than expected exports (by 96,700 tons) and poorer than expected implied domestic demand.  See attached PDF. 

 

Note
December 1-10 palm exports were reported as follows:

·        
ITS 402,880 tons, down 6.0% from 428,445 tons previous month

·        
AmSpec 417,960 tons, down 5.8% from 443,895 tons previous month

·        
SGS 396,099 tons, down 11.3% from 446,630 tons previous month

 

 

 

3rd
month rolling palm oil futures – monthly

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Egypt’s
    GASC bought 30,000 tons of soybean oil and passed on 10,000 tons of sunflower oil for arrival from Jan. 28 to Feb. 14.  Price was $1,000 a ton c&f. 
  • Iran’s
    GTC seeks about 30,000 tons of sunflower oil. 

 

 

Updated
12/02/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $11.40‐$12.10 range

January
soybean meal is seen trading in a $375 and $405 range

January
soybean oil is seen in a 36.00-38.50 cent range.

 

Wheat

 

Export
Developments.

  • Japan
    in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley on Dec 16 for arrival around March 11. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on Dec. 22.  They bought a combined 100,000 tons on Dec. 2 and Nov 26, the country’s first rice purchase in about three years.  Bangladesh plans to import 300,000
tons of rice.

 

Updated
12/7/20

March
Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.60‐$6.20 range (lowered 10 cents)

March
KC wheat is seen in a $5.25‐$5.70 range (lowered 5 & 10)

March
MN wheat is seen in a $5.35‐$5.65 range (down 5 & 10)

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 12/3/2020

 

 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

257.2

1,595.7

1,284.3

192.0

5,141.4

4,921.7

0.0

22.0

   SRW    

29.3

400.7

525.4

22.3

1,022.8

1,455.0

0.0

100.0

   HRS     

127.5

1,475.3

1,302.8

172.9

3,767.7

3,468.7

0.0

45.0

   WHITE   

181.7

2,559.4

935.6

125.4

2,559.3

2,384.9

0.0

20.0

   DURUM  

20.9

153.1

139.0

40.1

433.1

540.7

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

616.5

6,184.2

4,187.1

552.6

12,924.2

12,771.0

0.0

187.0

BARLEY

0.0

28.9

32.6

1.5

13.9

26.1

0.0

0.0

CORN

1,362.2

28,567.5

8,613.3

715.0

11,087.8

6,875.8

0.0

747.0

SORGHUM

123.0

3,376.8

701.1

1.9

1,277.4

258.4

0.0

327.0

SOYBEANS

569.0

23,088.9

9,563.3

2,691.3

29,817.7

17,431.2

168.0

237.0

SOY MEAL

163.6

3,132.1

3,243.5

224.4

2,132.7

1,979.1

0.0

18.1

SOY OIL

8.4

247.0

152.0

51.1

151.4

210.2

0.0

0.6

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

19.0

262.7

335.1

2.1

533.3

566.0

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

18.5

15.8

0.9

10.4

15.0

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.1

10.2

24.0

0.3

12.0

15.7

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.1

16.0

56.9

0.2

33.5

2.0

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

42.5

79.1

223.4

11.5

209.3

383.2

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

4.3

196.3

189.3

3.6

143.4

178.5

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

66.0

582.8

844.5

18.7

941.8

1,160.3

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

403.0

5,813.7

7,558.1

323.2

4,455.3

3,285.6

48.0

699.9

   PIMA

13.0

222.5

159.0

26.4

277.4

140.7

0.0

0.7

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period November 27-December 3, 2020.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 616,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 38 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (107,300 MT), unknown destinations (104,000 MT), Japan (88,700 MT, including decreases of
200 MT), Thailand (86,500 MT), and China (68,300 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Algeria (2,400 MT).  Exports of 552,600 MT were up 22 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to Japan (90,700 MT), Mexico (73,300 MT), China (68,300 MT), the Philippines (66,000 MT), and Thailand (54,800 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021,
the current outstanding balance of 10,000 MT, all Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales of 1,362,200 MT for 2020/2021 were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for unknown destinations (422,200 MT), Mexico (408,100 MT, including decreases of 21,800 MT), China (141,200
MT), Chile (90,000 MT), and South Korea (66,600 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for El Salvador (15,800 MT).  Exports of 715,000 MT were down 33 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to China (271,300 MT), Mexico (261,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (71,500 MT), Costa Rica (58,900 MT), and Taiwan (21,900 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021,
new optional origin sales of 65,000 MT were reported for South Korea.  The current outstanding balance of 1,548,400 MT is for South Korea (834,000 MT), unknown destinations (224,000 MT), Taiwan (205,000 MT), Vietnam (130,000 MT), China (65,000 MT), Japan (58,000
MT), and Ukraine (32,400 MT). 

Barley: 
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 1,500 MT were to Japan.

Sorghum:  Net sales of 123,000 MT for
2020/2021 were down 49 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (67,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT) and unknown destinations (55,000 MT).  Exports of 1,900 MT were down 99 percent
from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was China.

Rice:  Net sales of 66,000 MT for 2020/2021
were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Haiti (38,000 MT), Mexico (20,000 MT), Jordan (2,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (1,800 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).  Exports of 18,700 MT were
down 87 percent from the previous week and 83 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Haiti (7,200 MT), Mexico (3,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (2,200 MT), Canada (2,100 MT), and Jordan (1,400 MT).

Export Adjustments:  Accumulated exports
of medium brown rice to South Korea were adjusted down 1,040 MT for weekend October 8th.  This shipment was reported in error. 

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 569,000 MT for 2020/2021 were up 40 percent from the previous week, but down 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (685,400 MT, including 459,000 switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,500 MT),
Mexico (178,600 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Thailand (103,800 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (95,200 MT, including 84,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Egypt (86,100 MT, including 55,000 MT
switched from unknown destinations, 27,700 MT switched from Canada, and decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (715,200 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 168,000 MT were for China (126,000 MT) and unknown destinations
(42,000 MT).  Exports of 2,691,300 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,899,100 MT, including 134,800 MT late – see below), Egypt (256,100 MT), the Netherlands
(115,200 MT), Thailand (109,000 MT), and Tunisia (63,200 MT).

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021,
the current outstanding balance of 63,000 MT, all China.

Exports for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 25,300 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 109,600 MT, all Canada.

Late Reporting: For 2020/2021, exports
totaling 134,800 MT were reported late.  These exports were for China.

Soybean Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 163,600 MT for 2020/2021, resulting in increases primarily for Morocco (43,000 MT), Colombia (22,000 MT), Canada (17,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (16,500 MT), and Venezuela (14,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for
Trinidad and Tobago (500 MT).  Exports of 224,400 MT were primarily to the Philippines (75,000 MT), Bangladesh (49,500 MT), Peru (31,400 MT), Canada (30,500 MT), and Mexico (16,900 MT). 

Soybean Oil: 
Net sales of 8,400 MT for 2020/2021, primarily for South Korea (11,600 MT, including 1,600 MT switched from China), Belgium (100 MT), and Mexico (100 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (2,000 MT), Canada (800 MT), China (400 MT), and Honduras (100
MT).  Exports of 51,100 MT were primarily to the South Korea (34,600 MT), China (10,600 MT), Guatemala (4,500 MT), Honduras (900 MT), and Canada (400) MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 403,000 RB for 2020/2021 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (159,100 RB, including 3,000 RB switched from Hong Kong), Pakistan (75,900 RB), Vietnam (35,800 RB,
including 2,000 RB switched from China), Indonesia (26,800 RB), and Thailand (21,600 RB, including 3,000 RB switched from Vietnam, 1,900 RB switched from Indonesia, 700 RB switched from Japan, and decreases of 600 RB), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong
(2,000 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 48,000 RB reported for Pakistan (44,000 RB), Vietnam (6,600 RB), Mexico (6,500 RB), Costa Rica (2,400 RB), and Turkey (1,800 RB), were offset by reductions for China (13,200 RB).  Exports of 323,200 RB were up 79 percent
from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China (167,100 RB), Pakistan (52,300 RB), Vietnam (36,800 RB), Mexico (17,000 RB), and Bangladesh (9,600 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 13,000 RB were up 66 percent
from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (6,800 RB), India (2,300 RB), Egypt (2,000 RB), Thailand (900 RB, including 400 RB switched from Malaysia), and Austria (900 RB, switched from Switzerland),
were offset by reductions for Switzerland (900 RB).  Exports of 26,400 RB were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (7,900 RB), China (6,000 RB), Pakistan (2,800 RB),
Italy (1,900 RB), and Bangladesh (1,500 RB).  

Exports
for Own Account:
 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 8,500 RB were to China.  Exports for own account totaling 20,900 RB to China (20,800 RB) and Vietnam (100 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance
of 29,500 RB is for China (28,200 RB), Bangladesh (1,000 RB), and Indonesia (300 RB). 

Hides
and Skins:
 
Net sales of 332,800 pieces for 2020 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (180,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 25,600 pieces), South Korea (75,700 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,300 pieces), Mexico (43,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,900 pieces), Thailand (30,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), and Brazil (5,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,400
pieces), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (400 pieces). 
Additionally, total net sales
reductions of 12,000 calf skins were for Italy.  Net sales of 7,700 kip skins were reported for Belgium (5,600 kip skins) and Italy (2,100 kip skins).  For 2021, net sales of 87,400 pieces were primarily for China (35,600 whole
cattle hides), Indonesia (22,900 whole cattle hides), and Taiwan (19,000 whole cattle hides).  Additionally, total net sales of 9,500 calf skins were reported for Italy.  Net sales of 11,200 kip skins were reported for Belgium.  Exports of 368,300 pieces reported
for 2020 were up 19 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (266,500 pieces), South Korea (44,100 pieces), Mexico (35,100 pieces), Brazil (6,300 pieces), and Indonesia
(3,800 pieces). 

Net
sales of 99,500 wet blues

for 2020 were down 56 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (61,400 unsplit and 4,900 grain splits), Vietnam (11,900 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Taiwan (4,800 unsplit
and 200 grain splits), Mexico (3,400 unsplit and 1,200 grain splits), and Thailand (4,400 unsplit, including decreases of 400 unsplit).  Exports of 104,700 wet blues for 2020 were down 6 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (38,000 unsplit), China (24,600 unsplit and 200 grain splits), Thailand (14,400 unsplit), Italy (8,000 unsplit and 3,800 grain splits), and South Korea (5,200 grain splits).  Net sales of 86,100 splits were reported
for China (86,000 pounds) and Vietnam (100 pounds).  Exports of 159,700 pounds were to Vietnam (118,700 pounds) and China (41,000 pounds).

Beef: 
Net sales of 3,000 MT reported for 2020 were down 78 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (3,300 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada
(1,300 MT), China (800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Indonesia (400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (4,600 MT) and Hong Kong (1,000 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 12,000 MT were primarily for South Korea (7,200 MT), Japan (1,600
MT), Hong Kong (1,200 MT), China (1,000 MT), and Mexico (900 MT).  Exports of 18,200 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (5,100 MT), South Korea (4,400 MT), Mexico
(2,600 MT), China (1,800 MT), and Hong Kong (1,400 MT).

Pork: 
Net sales of 26,500 MT reported for 2020 were down 15 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (10,400 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), China (6,300 MT, including decreases of 1,900 MT),
Japan (5,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (900 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), and Australia (900 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Nicaragua (200 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 6,400 MT were
primarily for South Korea (1,700 MT), Japan (1,200 MT), Colombia (900 MT), the Dominican Republic (700 MT), and China (500 MT).  Exports of 42,000 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to China (13,300 MT), Mexico (13,200 MT), Japan (5,200 MT), South Korea (3,100 MT), and Canada (2,200 MT).

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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