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WASHINGTON,
September 23, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 138,403 metric tons of corn for delivery to Guatemala during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Higher
trade led by wheat on improving global import demand and sharply lower USD.  That and crop concerns lifted corn higher.  Soybeans were supported by soybean oil and higher wheat. 

 

Weather

7-day

Map

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World
Weather Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

  • Russia’s
    Volga River Basin is receiving needed moisture today and some of it will linger into Monday with 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain resulting and a few amounts to 1.25 inches

o  
The moisture is badly needed with top and subsoil moisture rated very short

o  
The precipitation will offer a temporary reprieve from dryness, but will not be a fix all

      • Improved
        seed germination, emergence and establishment conditions should result

o  
Drier biased weather resume and last for a full week thereafter

 

  • Some
    areas in Ukraine would benefit from greater rain as would Russia’s Southern Region, but these areas will not be completely dry during the next two weeks and winter crops will emerge and establishment regardless
  • Russia
    and Ukraine summer crop harvest progress will be slowed by this week’s rain
  • China’s
    Yellow River Basin and North China Plain will experience a new round of frequent moderate to heavy rainfall during the coming week stalling winter crop planting and summer crop harvest progress

o  
Some flooding will be possible, but damage to crops should be mostly low

o  
A little replanting of wheat may be needed in the wettest areas, although the planting season has just begun and there is not likely much fieldwork that has already been completed

o  
China’s minor cotton production areas in the Yellow River Basin will experience a decline in crop quality because of the coming week of rain

  • Xinjiang
    China weather will not be ideal during the next ten days

o  
Rain will fall periodically in northeastern parts of the province causing a rise in cotton fiber quality concerns

o  
Cold temperatures in the northeast should not be a problem since the crop is already being defoliated

o  
Cotton in central and western production areas of Xinjiang will continue to mature more favorably with limited rain

      • Cold
        weather is expected at the end of next week and into the following weekend which may bring on a little frost
  • Other
    areas in China will experience a mostly favorable weather pattern, although drying is needed in the northeastern provinces and across the interior southeast
  • India’s
    monsoon should begin to withdraw from the far north next week and more definitively in the first week of October

o  
The delayed withdrawal of seasonal rainfall will be good for rapeseed, millet, wheat and other winter crop planting

o  
Some delay in summer crop maturation and harvest has occurred because of wet weather and a few crops may be suffering a quality decline because of too much moisture

      • Cotton
        fiber quality declines have likely impacted a part of the far north; including Punjab, Haryana and neighboring areas
  • Eastern
    Australia’s forecast turned wetter today for the second week of the forecast. If the outlook is correct some badly needed rain may impact Queensland and New South Wales

o  
The moisture will be good for reproducing winter crops in New South Wales and improve planting moisture for cotton and sorghum in Queensland

      • Confidence
        is high over rainfall in early October, but low on how much rain should be expected
  • Eastern
    U.S. weather will improve starting today after too much rain in recent days

o  
The past week has been quite wet in the Delta and the past several days have also been wet in the Tennessee River Basin, the Carolinas, Virginia, Georgia and the entire eastern Midwest

      • Indiana,
        Ohio eastern Michigan, Virginia and the Carolinas have reported the most excessive rainfall in recent days and drier weather expected in this coming week to ten days for parts of the region will be ideal for improving summer crop maturation and harvest conditions
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas are still advertised to receive rain during mid-week next week with a follow up rain event during the following weekend

o  
World Weather, Inc. still believes the wet weather advertised is overdone

o  
Future model runs are likely to greatly reduce the early October rain event and should ease up on showers expected during mid-week next week as well

o  
Totally dry weather is not expected, but a good distribution of rain is not likely especially in the high Plains region

  • Canada’s
    Prairies, the northern U.S. Plains, the northern Rocky Mountains region, California and the interior Pacific Northwest are not expecting to see much “significant” rainfall over the next ten days

o  
Many of these areas will experience net drying

o  
Concern over winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment will occur again this year in Canada and the northwestern Plains

      • The
        same is possible in the Pacific Northwest, although that region should have a little better potential for significant moisture over time.
  • U.S.
    Midwest crop weather will be favorably dry through early next week and then rain is expected in the second half of the week

o  
Resulting amounts will be light and the duration of rain brief enough to limit the impact on harvest progress

      • The
        best harvest environment will continue in the western Corn Belt
  • U.S.
    Delta and Southeastern States will experience the best drying conditions over the next week to ten days
  • Tropical
    Depression 18 in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean will become tropical storm Sam later today and the storm is expected to become a hurricane this weekend and possibly a strong hurricane next week

o  
The storm’s path is such that it should stay over open water in the Atlantic passing to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands during the middle part of next week and then threatening Bermuda before turning to the northeast
in the early days of October.

  • Tropical
    Depression Peter dissipated and Rose will do the same in the next couple of days
  • Remnants
    of Tropical Storm Odette will continue to wander through the open water of the north-central Atlantic Ocean and will not bring a threat to land
  • A
    wave coming off the West Africa coast will be closely monitored for possible development into a tropical cyclone this weekend or next week

o  
The system should pass to the northeast of northern Leeward Islands and poses no threat to North America through at least the latter part of next week

o  
Further intensification is possible once it becomes a tropical cyclone

  • Tropical
    storm Dianmu was moving inland over Vietnam this morning and was located 82 miles southeast of Da Nang at 1434 GMT today.

o  
The storm will produce heavy rain over a part of Vietnam’s Central Highlands as well as other central Vietnam and Laos locations today and in Thailand Friday

      • Rainfall
        will vary from 2.00 to more than 6.00 inches across many of these areas, although Thailand rainfall will likely be lighter and a few areas in northern Cambodia will also be impacted by significant rain from the storm
  • Tropical
    Storm Mindulle was located near Guam today and was expected to intensify to typhoon intensity over the next few days as it moves northwesterly over open water. The storm will move toward Japan next week, but may turn to the northeast prior to making landfall
    over Honshu

o  
If this path verifies, Japan should be spared from the storm’s intense wind and torrential rainfall, but it will need to be closely monitored

  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada received heavy rainfall Wednesday and more is expected today

o  
Rain totals of 1.00 to 2.50 inches have either occurred or soon will occur resulting in saturated field conditions and notable delays to summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting

o  
A follow up system will bring more showers during the weekend before next week trends drier

  • Argentina
    reported rain in Buenos Aries Wednesday

o  
Amounts reached 1.50 inches in central parts of the province while other areas received less than 0.25 inch of moisture

  • Brazil
    weather was dry Wednesday

o  
Highest afternoon temperatures were in 95 to 108 Fahrenheit in center west and northeastern crop areas while more seasonable farther to the south

  • Brazil
    will continue very warm to hot in the center west and center south into the weekend

o  
Showers will occur in the far south, but significant moisture will not be very great

o  
Showers will develop in center west and center south this weekend and continue periodically next week

      • Sufficient
        rain will fall in “a few” areas to lift topsoil moisture for better early season soybean and early corn planting. Greater rainfall will still be needed before aggressive fieldwork can begin; however, any precipitation will be better than none.
        • Rain
          is advertised to increase in many areas during the final days in September and especially the first week in October
  • Argentina
    is not likely to see much precipitation for a while, but showers will pop up from time to time next week offering some moisture for a part of the nation

o  
Significant rain is needed in the north and west-central crop areas

  • Europe
    weather in the coming week is expected to be favorably mixed with a little rain and more sunshine. Southern parts of the continent will be wettest

o  
Next week’s weather is expected to be wetter biased in France, the U.K., Germany and northern Italy

o  
Eastern Europe will be drier than usual next week

o  
Temperatures will be near normal this week and then cooler than usual in the west and warmer usual in the east

  • Belarus,
    southwestern Russia and parts of Ukraine received some significant rain over the past week and lingering showers are expected through the weekend

o  
The precipitation will be lighter than that which has been occurring, but still beneficial in ensuring much improved winter wheat, rye and barley establishment in areas that were considered too dry a week ago

      • Data
        from the southwestern Russia and its upper and middle Volga River Basin area has confirm 1.50 to more than 4.00 inches of rain over the past week
      • Much
        lighter rain has occurred in farther to the east and north as well as in Ukraine, but rain will impact the Volga Basin through the weekend
  • Central
    Africa rainfall will occur favorably over the next two weeks

o  
Sufficient rain will fall to support normal coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crop development from Ethiopia to northern Tanzania and from Ivory Coast to Cameroon and Nigeria

  • South
    Africa weather through early next week is not likely to have much precipitation in it

o  
Showers will develop in the central and east next week

  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall is expected to be frequent and sufficient to support long term crop needs and boost runoff for winter water supply

o  
This is true for the  mainland areas as well as Philippines and a part of both Indonesia and Malaysia

o  
Tropical Cyclone Dianmu will enhance rainfall in the mainland areas of Southeast Asia starting today and continuing through the weekend

  • Mexico
    precipitation will continue frequent this week, but it will turn drier next week

o  
Most of this week’s rain will concentrate on western and southern parts of the nation while the northeast is dry biased.

o  
Rain next week will be limited a few showers in the west and more generalized rain in the far south

  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was +9.79 and will likely move lower over the next few days
  • New
    Zealand weather will include some periodic rainfall favoring western parts of South Island

o  
Temperatures will be near to below average

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Sept. 23:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Globoil
    India – international vegetable oil conference, day 1
  • The
    UN Food Systems Summit
  • USDA
    red meat production, 3pm
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

Friday,
Sept. 24:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • Globoil
    India – international vegetable oil conference, day 2
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, hogs and pigs inventory, poultry slaughter, 3pm

Saturday,
Sept. 25:

  • Globoil
    India – international vegetable oil conference, day 3

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
export sales

USDA
soybean export sales of 903,000 tons were within expectations and included China (624,200 MT, including decreases of 132,000 MT), Mexico (85,300 MT, including 47,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), and Egypt (58,000 MT). 
Soybean commitment are running 34.5% below the same period a year ago.  Soybean meal old crop sales were 45,000 tons but new-crop was good at 216,400 tons.  On top of that shipments of meal were 244,800 tons, supportive.  Soybean oil sales were only 4,300
tons and shipments 600 tons.  Corn export sales were 373,000 tons, low for this time of year (2.139MMT were sold a year earlier).  Corn commitment this season are running 10.4% above this time last year.  All-wheat sales slowed to 355,900 tons from 617,100
tons previous week but were within a range of expectations.  Pork sales were 32,600 tons.