PDF Attached

 

USDA
made additional 24-hour soybean announcements to China & unknown followed by 110,000 tons of corn to unknow.  USDA reported big soybean and sorghum export sales.  China soybean oil was up sharply (3.2%) followed by talk that China will replenish 2 million
tons of soybean oil for reserves.  China sold all of its 3.994MMT corn offered at auction.  Taiwan’s MFIG passed on corn overnight and South Korea’s NOFI passed on 69k of corn.  Perhaps they want to see lower global cash prices.  Iran passed on corn and bought
an unknown volume of soybean meal. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

IT
IS ALL ABOUT THE TROPICS

  • Weather
    in North America over the next few weeks will be largely determined by the tropics and the interaction of frequent tropical cyclones and the North America high pressure ridge
  • An
    active tropical pattern will be firing up in another week to no more than ten days
    • Once
      the more active pattern begins it will last for two weeks
    • The
      subtropical jet stream will bring frequent storms toward the southeastern United States and there will often be a trough of low pressure over the southeastern U.S. that will limit moisture from flowing into the Midwest helping to reduce rainfall
  • Monsoonal
    precipitation has been and will continue restricted in the southwestern U.S. and that, too, limits the moisture influx for the Midwest later this month and especially in September
  • The
    combination of a late season ridge of high pressure over the Plains and Rocky Mountain region, the active tropical weather pattern with a trough of low pressure in the southeastern U.S.  and limited monsoonal moisture will lead to less rain less frequently
    in the Midwest and an opportunity for net drying in the Midwest
  • A
    close watch on the tropics is warranted because any storm that comes to the Gulf of Mexico might have some potential to disrupt the drying bias for parts of the Midwest and Delta, although Gulf storms may favor Texas landfalls rather than Delta landfalls.
  • Not
    all of the Midwest, Delta and Great Plains will be dry and World Weather, Inc. is certainly not advocating a complete absence of rain, but we remind you of the late summer weather outlook promoting less rain and a net drying bias only to be disrupted by some
    brief periods of light rainfall
  • Bouts
    of cool air will alternate with seasonable to slightly warmer than usual conditions
  • The
    above comments of generality should rule over the next few weeks

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

Not
major changes occurred overnight

  • Rain
    will fall periodically this week in most of western and central Europe and sufficient amounts of rain will occur to bring relief to parts of the driest areas of France, the U.K., Belgium and a few areas of Germany
    • Central
      France seems less favored for “significant” rain today than in previous days this week
  • Northeastern
    Europe will dry down for a while, but that will be a welcome change after frequent rainfall this summer and the same is expected in western portions of the CIS
  • Eastern
    and southern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region will continue to experience restricted rainfall and seasonable temperatures promoting ongoing crop moisture stress for unirrigated grains and oilseeds

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

Rain
is still expected in most of the Russian New Lands during the coming week to ten days. Sufficient amounts will occur to bolster soil moisture in those areas that have been drier biased in recent weeks

  • A
    little too much rain may return to a part of the Ural Mountains region where the ground is already plenty moist
    • This
      region could fall vulnerable to some crop quality declines if the wet weather prevails too long
  • Temperatures
    will be seasonable in the eastern New Lands and a little cooler than usual in the west

 

CHINA

Waves
of rain will continue to impact much of the nation east of Tibet over the next ten days leaving many areas plenty wet and some a little too wet

  • All
    areas get rain at one time or another and northern areas may be wettest relative to normal; however
    some heavy rain is expected in central Sichuan where some flooding is likely into this weekend
  • Some
    rain in northern China may also continue heavy at times into next week resulting in periodic localized flooding
  • Net
    drying is expected in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin and in some areas in the interior southeastern parts of the nation, although completely dry weather is not likely

 

AUSTRALIA

Waves
of light rain will continue to move across the nation over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for winter crops as they approach spring

Greater
volumes of rain are still needed in South Australia and parts of Queensland where the lowest soil moisture remains

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Argentina’s
wheat growing belt will continue to see less than ideal precipitation 

 

 

U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
August 14:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • EARNINGS:
    Golden Agri-Resources

SATURDAY,
August 15:

  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Aug 1-15 from AmSpec

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
export sales

exceeded expectations for old crop soybeans and new-crop topped 2.8 million tons, well above expectations.  Soybean meal export sales were within expectations.  Soybean oil was negative 2,500 tons for old crop but new-crop was very good at 48,300
tons.  Corn export sales were within expectations.  All-wheat of nearly 368,000 tons were ok.  Sorghum export sales were excellent at 282,400 tons an included a large portion for China. 
New-crop-sorghum were a whopping 527,500 tons including 348,000 tons for China.  Pork sales were 10,500 tons. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Aug 8: 963K (est 1100K; prevR 1191K; prev 1186K)

US
Continuing Clams Aug 1: 15486K (est 15800K; prevR 16090K; prev 16107K)

 

Corn.

  • September
    corn futures ended 10.75 cents higher

    at $3.2525, an impressive move that resulted, in just one day, took out the top end of our revised September trading range of $3.25.  December settled 11.50 cents higher at $3.3875, highest level since July 20.  The benchmark December position is probably
    going to close its July 10-13th gap of $3.4200 and $3.4375, maybe as early as tomorrow. 
  • Corn
    futures exploded to the upside, trading 3 percent about higher during the session, on improving demand, short covering (managed money was about net short 156k headed into Thursday) and talk of large production losses for IA and Il and surrounding areas impacted
    by Monday’s derecho weather event.  Yesterday we noted the corn loss in IA alone could amount north of 240 million bushels.  Some 1.0+ million corn acres could have been lost. 
  • USDA
    this morning announced 110,000 tons of corn was sold to unknown.  Traders think it could have been Mexico or China as the destination.  Meanwhile, old and new-crop US sorghum weekly export sales of a large 527,500 tons were the largest weekly volume (for new-crop) 
    since August 30, 2017. But not all trade news earlier today was rosy.  South Korea, Taiwan and Iran passed on corn. 
    Perhaps
    those countries want to see lower global cash prices. 
     
  • Weekly
    old-crop sorghum export sales were excellent at 282,400 tons an included a large portion for China.  New-crop-sorghum were a whopping 527,500 tons and included 348,000 tons for China.  .  USDA export sales for corn were within expectations at 377,200 tons
    old crop and 553,100 tons new-crop.  Pork sales were 10,500 tons
  • China
    sold all of its 3.994MMT corn offered at auction at an average price of 1,959 yuan per ton.  
  • Today
    was the last day of the “Goldman Roll.”
  • China
    announced they found traces of coronavirus in imported frozen food packaging from Brazil. 

 

USDA
Attaché on China pork production 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Livestock%20and%20Products%20Annual_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_08-15-2019

 

 

Corn
Export Developments

·        
Under the 24-hour USDA export sales reporting system, private exporters reported the following activity:  Export sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations.  Of the
total, 30,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 80,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year. 

·        
Israel passed on about 200,000 tons of corn but bought an unknown amount of soybean meal.  They were in for 350,000 tons of soybean meal.

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG passed on up to 65,000 tons of optional origin corn for October 28-Nov 16 shipment.  Lowest offer was believed to be for Argentine corn at an estimated premium of 186.50 U.S. cents
a bushel c&f over the Chicago March 2021 corn contract. 

·        
South Korea’s NOFI group passed on 69,000 tons of corn. 

 

A close up of a map

Description automatically generated

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44736&src=email

 

 

Updated
8/13/
20

  • September
    corn is seen in a $3.10 and $3.35 range.  December $3.00-$3.50 range. 

 

Soybean
complex
.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

·        
Israel passed on about 200,000 tons of corn but bought an unknown amount of soybean meal.  They were in for 350,000 tons of soybean meal.

·        
Under the 24-hour USDA export sales reporting system, private exporters reported the following activity:

o  
Export sales of 197,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year

o  
Export sales of 202,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year

 

NOPA. 
We
are hearing downtime during July was larger than June and much larger than July 2019.  

 

 

Updated
8/13/20

  • September
    soybeans are seen in a $8.70-$9.15 range.  November $8.60-$9.25.  
  • September
    soybean meal is seen in a $285 to $310 range.  December $285-$320.   
  • September
    soybean oil range is seen in a 30.00 to 32.50 range.  December 29.75-33.00 range.  

 

Wheat

 

Export
Developments.

  • Egypt
    seeks wheat and lowest offer was $204.90/ton for Russian wheat. T
    raders
    gave the following breakdown of the purchase in dollars per ton:









Supplier

Quantity

Origin

FOB

Freight

C&F

GTCS

55,000

Russian

$206.30

$15.68

$221.98

Solaris

60,000

Russian

$206.48

$15.95

$222.43

Solaris

60,000

Russian

$206.48

$15.95

$222.43

Solaris

60,000

Russian

$206.48

$15.95

$222.43

Posco

60,000

Russian

$206.95

$15.95

$222.90

Gemcorp

60,000

Russian

$207.00

$15.95

$222.95

Grain
Export

60,000

Russian

$207.38

$15.95

$223.33

  • Pakistan
    seeks 1.5 million tons of wheat on August 18. 
  • Syria
    looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  • Syria
    seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat from EU/Russia on Sept. 9 and 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia on Sept. 14.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on August 17 for October through December delivery. 

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 60,556 tons of rice from Vietnam and other origins, on Aug. 19, for arrival in South Korea between Dec. 31, 2020, and February 28, 2021.

 

Updated
8/12/20

  • Chicago
    September is seen in a $4.70-$5.15 range. December $4.80-$5.30. 
  • KC
    September; $4.00-$4.40 range. December $4.10-$4.45.  
  • MN
    September $4.75-$5.05 range.  December $4.95-$5.25.

 

 

U.S.
EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 8/6/2020                        


 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES