Daily Market Report – Oct 12, 2022

There was quite the shift in temps overnight. The 6-10 day period changed significantly leading to a period that now comes in much cooler that the 10Y.

While the country will be split down the middle in the 6 to 10 day window with colder temps to the East and warmer temps to the West, almost everyone will see the warmth in the 11 to 15 day timeframe.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  101.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.06 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Yesterday’s late cycle nomination added back ~1 Bcf/d, and we are likely to see the same today.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.5 Bcf today,  -0.33 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.28 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 10.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.1 Bcf today. Early nomination data shows Sabine Pass taking +0.5 Bcf/d DoD.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.

For week ending Oct 7^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +132 Bcf, while our flow model is at +130 Bcf injection.  Last year we injected +86 Bcf during the same week.

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