Overnight weather runs once again shifted warmer this morning. The GFS Ensemble particularly added some more CDDs, and it continues to show warmer weather than the Euro Ensemble. Other than the strong heat in ERCOT this week, the heat will start to increase across the Northeast towards the end of May while the Southeast continues to experience above-average temperatures for the remainder of the month. This continues to put a bullish slant on market fundamentals as we get an early taste of peak summer.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 94.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.09 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.86 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production continues to remain lower day on day from the Northeast, South Central, and the Rockies.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 69.8 Bcf today, +1.11 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.7 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 10.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.9 Bcf today. Cameron nominated 1.83 Bcf/d today indicating that the maintenance on T1 is complete, and Corpus Christie is back to normal operation level as well.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today.
For week ending May 13th, our final estimate +87 – the average our S/D storage model at +91 Bcf and our flow model at +83 Bcf.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-May-18-2022.pdf