The EIA reported a +77 Bcf injection for the week ending Apr 29th, which came in much above market estimates. This storage report takes the total level to 1567 Bcf, which is 382 Bcf less than last year at this time and 306 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,873 Bcf.
Overall, we estimate this +77 Bcf injection is ~1.6 Bcf/d loose vs last summer (wx adjusted), which is looser than the two previous week’s reports. If we were to focus solely on the injection and weather relationship in Q2 2021 then this number was about 2.1 Bcf/d looser (wx adjusted).
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.08 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.08 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Early nomination data still shows production off in the SC and Northeast today, but the larger portiong of the PHP maintenance is to be completed today. So there is a good chance that we see some production out of West Texas recover for tomorrow’s gas day.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.1 Bcf today, -1.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 14.5 Bcf. The heat in Texas is starting to add CDDs early lead to strong power burns.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.3 Bcf today. Calcasieu Pass nomination data shows the terminal receiving over 1 Bcf/d today, which confirms the initiation of Block 6. Meanwhile, Freeport is almost back at normal operation after maintenance and Cameron remains in the midst of its T1 maintenance.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +82 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-May-06-2022.pdf