Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 94.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.62 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.92 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production once again weakened in the Northeast and the South Central. The array of pipeline maintenance is restricting production in those regions. The one known maintenance project on PHP looks to be restricting West Texas production. It is quite possible that some of that production originally jumping on to PHP could be moving to another intrastate pipeline system.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74 Bcf today, -0.57 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.77 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 15.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +72 Bcf today. Our flow model is projecting the same storage injection; hence giving us confidence in this estimate. This week we expect the EAST region to fill 16 Bcf (DTI @ +5, TCO @ +4.4) based on our flow model. This level could be higher if we there was an error in last week’s 0 Bcf East storage injection. We felt that should have been higher, and therefore we could see a bit of error correction this week to take EAST storage even higher than the 16 Bcf.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-May-04-2022.pdf