I put together a few scenarios on Freeport operations and the impact to US balances/storage.
I am assuming the facility is out for 90 days as a worst case scenario based on the location of the explosion/fire and the time it took to get under control. The issues looks far from the 3 liquefaction trains, and more related to an inlet pipe to one of the storage tanks. Also a good sign is that there were no reported casualties or injuries.
For the past 30 days, the average delivery to Freeport has been 2.0-2.1 Bcf/d. At this point the only piece that is confirmed is that Freeport will be out for 3 weeks, while the PHMSA conducts an investigation on the cause of the event.
I painted 3 scenarios with that show the impact on balances being between 44 Bcf and 182 Bcf. This net amount should make its way to storage helping relieve the storage deficit.
** These are just scenarios to give an idea of how things could proceed.
Send me an email if you have any additional thoughts.
From RonH on twitter: