Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-03-2022

Oct 3, 2022

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:05 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$6.492

$6.766

-4.05%

-$0.274

15,537

 

 

WTI

$83.40

$79.49

4.92%

$3.91

93,656

 

 

Brent

$88.81

$87.96

0.97%

$0.85

12,898

 

 

ULSD

$3.336

$3.369

-0.98%

-$0.033

5,403

 

 

RBOB

$2.476

$2.473

0.15%

$0.004

6,290

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$6.32

$6.42

-1.56%

-$0.10

Dec-22

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.43

$28.87

1.97%

$0.57

Nov-22

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Oct-22

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/30/22

765

1

237

10/01/21

 

 

Canada

09/30/22

213

-2

48

10/01/21

 

 

International

Aug

860

27

83

Aug

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/27/2022

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

89,366

88,869

89,184

-315

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,398

84,590

84,971

-381

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

494,767

471,802

484,355

-12,553

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,398

117,668

110,449

7,219

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

177,343

169,989

170,849

-860

 

 

NYM Ethanol

29,440

28,999

29,180

-181

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

127,723

126,520

127,006

-486

 

 

RBOB

241,183

222,936

225,727

-2,791

 

 

HSC Basis

590,061

586,783

584,251

2,532

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/29/17

 

 

 

9/23/22

9/16/22

Net Change

% Change

9/24/2021

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

721

690

31

4.49%

779

-7.45%

820

-12.09%

 

 

Midwest

879

844

35

4.15%

934

-5.89%

953

-7.76%

 

 

Mountain

176

168

8

4.76%

201

-12.44%

206

-14.40%

 

 

Pacific

243

237

6

2.53%

243

0.00%

285

-14.62%

 

 

South

958

935

23

2.46%

1,013

-5.43%

1,060

-9.66%

 

 

    Salt

204

199

5

2.51%

239

-14.64%

260

-21.42%

 

 

    Non_Salt

754

736

18

2.45%

774

-2.58%

801

-5.82%

 

 

Total

2,977

2,874

103

3.58%

3,170

-6.09%

3,323

-10.42%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/30/22

9/29/22

% Change

Change

9/1/22

% Change

10/1/21

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-22

$85.09

$83.66

1.71%

$1.43

$119.62

-28.87%

$41.35

105.76%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-22

$69.67

$69.57

0.14%

$0.10

$117.53

-40.72%

$44.82

55.44%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-22

$72.49

$72.25

0.33%

$0.24

$103.23

-29.78%

$67.33

7.66%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-22

$86.07

$84.92

1.35%

$1.15

$123.49

-30.30%

$40.27

113.72%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-22

$60.55

$58.46

3.58%

$2.09

$93.19

-35.03%

$42.75

41.62%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-22

$85.44

$82.57

3.47%

$2.87

$103.10

-17.13%

$58.55

45.92%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-22

$70.75

$66.84

5.86%

$3.92

$100.57

-29.65%

$37.94

86.51%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/30/22

9/29/22

% Change

Change

9/1/22

% Change

10/1/21

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-22

$6.766

$6.874

-1.57%

-$0.11

$9.33

-27.48%

$3.96

70.73%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-22

-$0.823

-$0.752

9.50%

-$0.07

-$0.48

72.74%

-$0.01

6704.13%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-22

-$0.575

-$0.503

-12.51%

-$0.07

-$0.35

63.99%

-$0.03

1718.99%

 

 

Waha

Nov-22

-$3.022

-$3.111

-2.88%

$0.09

-$2.30

31.40%

-$0.33

828.01%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-22

$3.792

$4.530

-16.30%

-$0.74

$6.85

-44.61%

$2.28

66.62%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-22

-$2.459

-$2.619

-6.12%

$0.16

-$3.40

-27.66%

-$0.86

185.62%

 

 

Socal

Nov-22

-$0.238

-$0.129

84.50%

-$0.11

$0.05

-618.52%

$1.21

-119.63%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/30/22

9/29/22

% Change

Change

9/1/22

% Change

10/1/21

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-22

$0.870

$0.875

-0.57%

$0.00

$1.07

-18.89%

$1.01

-13.94%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-22

$0.874

$0.873

0.02%

$0.00

$1.07

-18.53%

$1.01

-13.78%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-22

$0.394

$0.365

7.93%

$0.03

$0.56

-29.39%

$0.33

20.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-22

$1.605

$1.573

1.99%

$0.03

$1.59

1.03%

$1.56

3.18%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-22

$0.990

$0.988

0.25%

$0.00

$1.15

-14.06%

$1.09

-8.95%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-22

$0.879

$0.890

-1.28%

-$0.01

$1.09

-19.57%

$1.04

-15.75%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-22

$1.633

$1.588

2.84%

$0.05

$1.65

-1.32%

$1.55

5.51%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/30/22

9/29/22

% Change

Change

9/1/22

% Change

10/1/21

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-22

$79.49

$81.23

-2.19%

-$1.74

$86.22

-7.81%

$69.30

14.70%

 

 

Brent

Nov-22

$85.94

$88.49

-2.96%

-$2.55

$92.36

-6.95%

$72.83

18.01%

 

 

WCS

Nov-22

-$21.95

-$22.05

-0.45%

$0.10

-$21.17

3.68%

-$12.84

70.90%

 

 

LLS

Nov-22

$80.93

$82.85

-2.37%

-$1.92

$87.77

-7.79%

$69.39

16.63%

 

 

Mars

Nov-22

$76.42

$78.13

-2.24%

-$1.71

$83.89

-8.90%

$66.22

15.39%

 

 

Sour

Nov-22

$77.98

$80.32

-3.00%

-$2.34

$84.11

-7.29%

$67.54

15.46%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-22

$84.21

$85.66

-1.72%

-$1.45

$89.54

-5.95%

$70.05

20.21%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/30/22

9/29/22

% Change

Change

9/1/22

% Change

10/1/21

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-22

$3.36

$3.41

-1.38%

-$0.05

$3.55

-5.41%

$2.19

53.10%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-22

$2.37

$2.56

-7.19%

-$0.18

$2.39

-0.50%

$2.02

17.41%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-22

$2.27

$2.46

-7.49%

-$0.18

$2.29

-0.52%

$1.92

18.31%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-22

$3.10

$3.54

-12.64%

-$0.45

$3.27

-5.44%

$2.01

54.06%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-22

$2.37

$2.34

1.50%

$0.04

$2.37

0.30%

$1.72

38.26%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-22

$917.63

$943.13

-2.70%

-$25.51

$969.08

-5.31%

$595.92

53.99%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-22

$115.83

$115.83

0.00%

$0.00

$128.77

-10.05%

$82.69

40.08%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/30/22

9/29/22

% Change

Change

9/1/22

% Change

10/1/21

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-22

98.18%

98.10%

0.08%

0.08%

84.94%

15.59%

40.85%

140.34%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-22

135.62%

133.32%

1.73%

2.30%

116.97%

15.94%

73.82%

83.72%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-22

149.53%

150.02%

-0.33%

-0.49%

109.07%

37.10%

44.61%

235.19%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-22

103.83%

103.97%

-0.13%

-0.14%

88.17%

17.76%

40.28%

157.77%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-22

87.79%

87.14%

0.75%

0.65%

83.68%

4.91%

25.74%

241.06%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-22

146.61%

102.05%

43.66%

44.56%

126.23%

16.15%

24.13%

507.58%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-22

198.75%

172.72%

15.07%

26.03%

141.68%

40.28%

37.46%

430.57%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/30/22

9/29/22

% Change

Change

9/1/22

% Change

10/1/21

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-22

EUR 186.24

EUR 205.00

-9.15%

-EUR 18.76

EUR 258.08

-27.84%

EUR 45.09

313.03%

 

 

NBP

Nov-22

GBP 346.00

GBP 414.50

-16.53%

-GBP 68.50

GBP 595.00

-41.85%

GBP 117.07

195.55%

 

 

German Base

Nov-22

EUR 421.49

EUR 444.00

-5.07%

-EUR 22.51

EUR 655.31

-35.68%

EUR 114.72

267.40%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-22

GBP 548.93

GBP 523.66

4.83%

GBP 25.27

GBP 826.92

-33.62%

GBP 108.36

406.60%

 

 

French Base

Nov-22

EUR 999.77

EUR 981.24

1.89%

EUR 18.53

EUR 1,065.87

-6.20%

EUR 124.82

701.00%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-22

EUR 448.57

EUR 490.60

-8.57%

-EUR 42.03

EUR 571.74

-21.54%

EUR 123.74

262.53%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-22

$48.60

$42.43

14.52%

$6.16

$46.67

4.12%

$15.44

214.65%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/01/2022

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

0

651

234

-3

56.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-5

-1

855

203

-45

31.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-5

-12

825

123

-103

18.00%

-11.00%

 

 

W N Central

3

-6

-27

1,087

171

-14

19.00%

-1.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

31

-14

-16

1,986

224

11

13.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

15

-15

-25

1,705

216

132

15.00%

8.00%

 

 

W S Central

55

-2

-16

2,721

440

392

19.00%

17.00%

 

 

Mountain

36

10

17

1,337

150

-15

13.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Pacific

43

24

33

921

256

34

38.00%

4.00%

 

 

United States

22

-2

-4

1,368

223

34

19.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/01/2022

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

62

-1

17

152

-48

37

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

53

5

22

94

-41

38

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

76

25

52

144

-20

52

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

58

7

45

120

-71

43

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

24

9

15

32

4

18

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

37

18

27

46

10

22

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

6

2

5

6

-4

2

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

21

-26

-11

68

-122

-14

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

5

-17

-12

34

-77

-22

NA

NA

 

 

United States

36

4

18

71

-35

19

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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