Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-09-2025

May 9, 2025

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:07 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.687

$3.592

2.64%

$0.095

27,368

 

 

WTI

$61.15

$59.91

2.07%

$1.24

67,137

 

 

Brent

$64.03

$62.84

1.89%

$1.19

18,681

 

 

ULSD

$2.077

$2.040

1.80%

$0.037

12,464

 

 

RBOB

$2.118

$2.085

1.57%

$0.033

7,656

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.34

$3.32

0.60%

$0.02

Jul-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$26.41

$26.23

0.69%

$0.18

Jun-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$45.67

$49.82

-8.34%

-$4.16

Jun-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/02/25

584

-3

-21

05/03/24

 

 

Canada

05/02/25

120

-8

0

05/03/24

 

 

International

Apr

891

-8

-87

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/29/2025

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,924

98,143

98,421

-278

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

88,723

88,129

87,991

138

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

358,032

342,507

345,828

-3,321

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

151,431

120,137

115,612

4,525

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

213,554

207,775

207,048

727

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,820

35,104

35,328

-224

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

162,246

161,586

161,368

218

 

 

RBOB

388,087

368,722

369,297

-575

 

 

HSC Basis

925,075

918,889

921,086

-2,197

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Brent

$82.00

$81.00

$74.00

$66.00

 

 

Gasoline

$3.50

$3.30

$3.20

$3.00

 

 

Crude Oil Production

$12.90

$13.20

$13.50

$13.60

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

$4.00

 

 

LNG Exports

12.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Natural gas

42.00%

43.00%

41.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

17.00%

16.00%

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

27.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/08/20

 

 

 

5/2/25

4/25/25

Net Change

% Change

5/3/24

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

362

331

31

9.37%

454

-20.26%

390

-7.13%

 

 

Midwest

454

425

29

6.82%

584

-22.26%

487

-6.78%

 

 

Mountain

180

174

6

3.45%

191

-5.76%

128

40.85%

 

 

Pacific

232

226

6

2.65%

246

-5.69%

204

13.95%

 

 

South

917

885

32

3.62%

1,087

-15.64%

951

-3.55%

 

 

    Salt

293

281

12

4.27%

314

-6.69%

290

0.96%

 

 

    Non_Salt

624

605

19

3.14%

773

-19.28%

660

-5.51%

 

 

Total

2,145

2,041

104

5.10%

2,563

-16.31%

2,160

-0.68%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/8/25

5/7/25

% Change

Change

4/9/25

% Change

5/8/24

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-25

$53.62

$57.51

-6.76%

-$3.89

$54.10

-0.89%

$48.87

9.71%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-25

$55.07

$57.16

-3.64%

-$2.08

$56.05

-1.74%

$65.63

-16.08%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-25

$26.72

$27.50

-2.85%

-$0.78

$19.89

34.35%

$33.88

-21.14%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-25

$51.41

$52.46

-2.02%

-$1.06

$49.14

4.61%

$48.28

6.46%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-25

$58.24

$58.81

-0.97%

-$0.57

$55.95

4.09%

$47.58

22.41%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-25

$36.20

$38.94

-7.05%

-$2.75

$24.36

48.59%

$40.91

-11.53%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-25

$51.03

$55.88

-8.67%

-$4.84

$57.81

-11.72%

$44.52

14.61%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/8/25

5/7/25

% Change

Change

4/9/25

% Change

5/8/24

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-25

$3.592

$3.621

-0.80%

-$0.03

$3.93

-8.67%

$3.20

12.25%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-25

-$0.334

-$0.359

-6.86%

$0.02

-$0.34

-1.04%

-$0.34

-1.94%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-25

-$0.344

-$0.360

4.68%

$0.02

-$0.36

-3.21%

-$0.25

38.07%

 

 

Waha

Jun-25

-$1.711

-$1.780

-3.89%

$0.07

-$2.37

-27.95%

-$1.00

70.93%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-25

$0.281

$0.299

-5.99%

-$0.02

$0.13

113.62%

-$0.18

-259.85%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-25

-$2.169

-$2.067

4.94%

-$0.10

-$2.11

2.62%

-$1.13

91.39%

 

 

Socal

Jun-25

-$0.869

-$0.887

-2.01%

$0.02

-$1.31

-33.63%

-$0.17

396.74%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/8/25

5/7/25

% Change

Change

4/9/25

% Change

5/8/24

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-25

$0.720

$0.700

2.88%

$0.02

$0.65

11.64%

$0.68

6.06%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-25

$0.710

$0.696

1.97%

$0.01

$0.59

19.87%

$0.66

8.15%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-25

$0.255

$0.252

0.99%

$0.00

$0.25

0.04%

$0.25

1.99%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-25

$1.305

$1.270

2.79%

$0.04

$1.22

7.14%

$1.43

-8.80%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-25

$0.827

$0.832

-0.53%

$0.00

$0.81

1.53%

$0.78

5.61%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-25

$5.109

$5.035

1.48%

$0.07

$4.37

16.80%

$5.39

-5.21%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-25

$5.772

$5.731

0.71%

$0.04

$5.38

7.21%

$4.84

19.27%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/8/25

5/7/25

% Change

Change

4/9/25

% Change

5/8/24

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-25

$59.91

$58.07

3.07%

$1.84

$61.82

-3.09%

$73.27

-18.23%

 

 

Brent

Jun-25

$63.02

$61.27

2.78%

$1.75

$65.48

-3.76%

$78.16

-19.37%

 

 

WCS

Jun-25

-$8.27

-$8.12

1.80%

-$0.15

-$10.97

-24.63%

-$12.40

-33.31%

 

 

LLS

Jun-25

$62.09

$59.74

3.78%

$2.35

$61.81

0.44%

$75.44

-17.70%

 

 

Mars

Jun-25

$60.15

$58.86

2.15%

$1.29

$60.28

-0.22%

$72.84

-17.41%

 

 

Sour

Jun-25

$60.60

$58.03

4.25%

$2.58

$60.44

0.26%

$73.38

-17.42%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-25

$61.02

$59.27

2.87%

$1.75

$63.48

-3.88%

$76.16

-19.88%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/8/25

5/7/25

% Change

Change

4/9/25

% Change

5/8/24

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-25

$2.05

$1.97

4.21%

$0.08

$1.93

6.65%

$2.45

-16.09%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-25

$2.09

$2.02

3.51%

$0.07

$2.03

3.21%

$2.31

-9.43%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-25

$1.99

$1.92

3.69%

$0.07

$1.93

3.37%

$2.21

-9.86%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-25

$1.82

$1.82

0.22%

$0.00

$1.93

-5.30%

$2.32

-21.28%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-25

$1.72

$1.72

0.00%

$0.00

$1.77

-3.11%

$1.68

1.84%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-25

$615.53

$608.50

1.16%

$7.03

$560.48

9.82%

$692.37

-11.10%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-25

$78.14

$76.16

2.60%

$1.98

$75.78

3.12%

$94.47

-17.29%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/8/25

5/7/25

% Change

Change

4/9/25

% Change

5/8/24

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-25

66.06%

63.86%

3.45%

2.20%

61.46%

7.48%

36.35%

81.73%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-25

64.82%

62.85%

3.13%

1.97%

62.30%

4.04%

37.78%

71.57%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-25

194.88%

233.72%

-16.62%

-38.84%

312.20%

-37.58%

44.33%

339.61%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-25

70.48%

68.96%

2.20%

1.52%

69.73%

1.08%

37.01%

90.44%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-25

58.39%

60.37%

-3.28%

-1.98%

46.20%

26.39%

41.66%

40.16%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-25

92.19%

99.36%

-7.22%

-7.17%

99.36%

-7.22%

17.41%

429.52%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-25

75.43%

154.42%

-51.15%

-78.99%

19.90%

279.05%

98.94%

-23.76%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/8/25

5/7/25

% Change

Change

4/9/25

% Change

5/8/24

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-25

EUR 35.68

EUR 34.21

4.29%

EUR 1.47

EUR 33.82

5.50%

EUR 33.87

5.33%

 

 

NBP

Jun-25

GBP 85.43

GBP 82.53

3.52%

GBP 2.90

GBP 83.03

2.89%

GBP 86.82

-1.60%

 

 

German Base

Jun-25

EUR 75.27

EUR 74.31

1.29%

EUR 0.96

EUR 63.03

19.42%

EUR 84.49

-10.91%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-25

GBP 77.52

GBP 76.75

1.01%

GBP 0.77

GBP 71.42

8.53%

GBP 75.68

2.43%

 

 

French Base

Jun-25

EUR 22.71

EUR 24.13

-5.89%

-EUR 1.42

EUR 33.22

-31.63%

EUR 63.83

-64.42%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-25

EUR 103.30

EUR 100.08

3.22%

EUR 3.22

EUR 101.25

2.03%

EUR 97.82

5.60%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-25

$11.67

$11.39

2.46%

$0.28

$10.94

6.69%

$11.46

1.82%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/8/25

5/7/25

% Change

Change

4/9/25

% Change

5/8/24

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-25

$35.68

$34.21

4.29%

$1.47

$33.82

5.50%

$33.87

5.33%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-25

$85.43

$82.53

3.52%

$2.90

$83.03

2.89%

$86.82

-1.60%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-25

$75.27

$74.31

1.29%

$0.96

$63.03

19.42%

$84.49

-10.91%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-25

$77.52

$76.75

1.01%

$0.77

$71.42

8.53%

$75.68

2.43%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-25

$22.71

$24.13

-5.89%

-$1.42

$33.22

-31.63%

$63.83

-64.42%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-25

$103.30

$100.08

3.22%

$3.22

$101.25

2.03%

$97.82

5.60%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-25

$11.67

$11.39

2.46%

$0.28

$10.94

6.69%

$11.46

1.82%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/03/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

1

-3

2

1

-3

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-2

-5

0

-3

-6

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

1

-4

0

3

-8

-5

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

41

17

6

235

41

40

21.00%

21.00%

 

 

E S Central

36

23

3

103

40

35

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

56

21

-3

294

104

51

55.00%

21.00%

 

 

Mountain

6

-7

0

43

-12

19

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

0

0

-23

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

17

5

0

86

16

15

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/03/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

57

-43

-35

5,912

-393

420

-6.00%

8.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

36

-45

-11

5,151

-537

343

-9.00%

7.00%

 

 

E N Central

63

-22

24

5,691

-553

508

-9.00%

10.00%

 

 

W N Central

68

-7

2

5,954

-570

451

-9.00%

8.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-17

-4

2,546

-249

117

-9.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

9

-22

2

3,119

-414

62

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

5

-5

3

1,924

-349

-114

-15.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

72

-4

-14

4,533

-393

-82

-8.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Pacific

63

8

-4

2,907

-86

19

-3.00%

1.00%

 

 

United States

40

-16

-1

3,976

-373

193

-9.00%

5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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