Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-18-2025

Jul 18, 2025

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:15 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.549

$3.542

0.20%

$0.007

10,344

 

 

WTI

$68.36

$67.54

1.21%

$0.82

16,545

 

 

Brent

$70.22

$69.52

1.01%

$0.70

13,587

 

 

ULSD

$2.560

$2.465

3.85%

$0.095

13,033

 

 

RBOB

$2.182

$2.170

0.52%

$0.011

4,389

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.24

$3.29

-1.52%

-$0.05

Sep-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$28.28

$27.47

2.96%

$0.81

Aug-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$64.07

$70.66

-9.32%

-$6.59

Aug-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/11/25

537

-2

-47

07/12/24

 

 

Canada

07/11/25

162

11

-27

07/12/24

 

 

International

June-2025

913

27

-44

June-2024

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/8/2025

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,671

97,428

96,967

461

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,402

87,240

86,727

513

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

346,360

329,955

334,554

-4,599

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

480,348

405,153

374,067

31,086

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

195,094

187,734

187,980

-246

 

 

NYM Ethanol

30,432

29,956

30,003

-47

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,992

147,254

147,599

-345

 

 

RBOB

348,966

325,617

334,986

-9,369

 

 

HSC Basis

758,958

753,115

755,712

-2,597

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Brent

$82.00

$81.00

$66.00

$59.00

 

 

Gasoline

$3.50

$3.30

$3.10

$3.10

 

 

Crude Oil Production

$12.90

$13.20

$13.40

$13.50

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$2.50

$2.20

$4.10

$4.80

 

 

LNG Exports

12.00

12.00

15.00

16.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Natural gas

42.00%

42.00%

40.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

27.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/17/20

 

 

 

7/11/25

7/4/25

Net Change

% Change

7/12/24

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

628

616

12

1.95%

686

-8.45%

625

0.54%

 

 

Midwest

730

710

20

2.82%

814

-10.32%

729

0.14%

 

 

Mountain

235

231

4

1.73%

248

-5.24%

190

23.55%

 

 

Pacific

295

291

4

1.37%

289

2.08%

266

10.74%

 

 

South

1,164

1,158

6

0.52%

1,173

-0.77%

1,084

7.38%

 

 

    Salt

335

339

-4

-1.18%

318

5.35%

295

13.71%

 

 

    Non_Salt

829

819

10

1.22%

855

-3.04%

790

4.99%

 

 

Total

3,052

3,006

46

1.53%

3,209

-4.89%

2,895

5.43%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/25

7/16/25

% Change

Change

6/17/25

% Change

7/17/24

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-25

$71.67

$78.24

-8.40%

-$6.57

$69.20

3.56%

$66.83

7.23%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-25

$151.75

$144.01

5.38%

$7.74

$131.99

14.97%

$124.13

22.26%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-25

$56.20

$55.00

2.19%

$1.20

$64.00

-12.18%

$76.84

-26.86%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-25

$68.22

$74.24

-8.11%

-$6.02

$61.98

10.06%

$64.43

5.87%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-25

$72.79

$75.10

-3.08%

-$2.31

$60.70

19.92%

$67.50

7.83%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-25

$76.95

$77.75

-1.03%

-$0.80

$94.00

-18.14%

$136.91

-43.80%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-25

$72.25

$74.30

-2.76%

-$2.05

$59.44

21.55%

$59.20

22.05%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/25

7/16/25

% Change

Change

6/17/25

% Change

7/17/24

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-25

$3.542

$3.551

-0.25%

-$0.01

$3.95

-10.31%

$3.23

9.66%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-25

-$0.381

-$0.402

-5.20%

$0.02

-$0.40

-3.98%

-$0.35

8.29%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-25

-$0.324

-$0.326

0.43%

$0.00

-$0.51

-36.53%

-$0.39

-16.53%

 

 

Waha

Aug-25

-$1.773

-$1.833

-3.25%

$0.06

-$1.61

10.31%

-$0.80

122.36%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-25

-$0.171

-$0.106

-61.57%

-$0.07

-$0.55

-68.98%

-$0.14

19.82%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-25

-$2.934

-$2.930

0.14%

$0.00

-$2.56

14.75%

-$1.60

83.77%

 

 

Socal

Aug-25

$0.150

$0.157

-4.20%

-$0.01

-$0.07

-331.03%

$1.22

-87.72%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/25

7/16/25

% Change

Change

6/17/25

% Change

7/17/24

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-25

$0.697

$0.714

-2.29%

-$0.02

$0.81

-14.20%

$0.73

-4.88%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-25

$0.690

$0.705

-2.14%

-$0.02

$0.82

-15.80%

$0.72

-4.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-25

$0.256

$0.253

1.48%

$0.00

$0.25

4.13%

$0.23

9.69%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-25

$1.326

$1.313

1.04%

$0.01

$1.44

-7.88%

$1.49

-10.94%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-25

$0.816

$0.814

0.32%

$0.00

$0.94

-13.50%

$0.84

-3.21%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-25

$5.329

$5.350

-0.38%

-$0.02

$5.73

-6.95%

$5.58

-4.44%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-25

$5.409

$5.480

-1.28%

-$0.07

$5.80

-6.74%

$5.17

4.56%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/25

7/16/25

% Change

Change

6/17/25

% Change

7/17/24

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-25

$66.23

$65.19

1.57%

$1.04

$71.57

-7.46%

$73.66

-10.09%

 

 

Brent

Sep-25

$69.52

$68.52

1.44%

$1.00

$74.90

-7.18%

$78.36

-11.28%

 

 

WCS

Sep-25

-$11.34

-$11.55

-1.89%

$0.21

-$11.39

-0.50%

-$14.21

-20.22%

 

 

LLS

Sep-25

$67.21

$66.32

1.32%

$0.89

$71.80

-6.39%

$76.10

-11.68%

 

 

Mars

Sep-25

$62.79

$62.52

0.43%

$0.27

$69.90

-10.17%

$73.97

-15.12%

 

 

Sour

Sep-25

$64.91

$65.36

-0.69%

-$0.45

$70.68

-8.16%

$73.75

-11.99%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-25

$67.52

$66.52

1.48%

$1.00

$72.90

-7.38%

$76.36

-11.58%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/25

7/16/25

% Change

Change

6/17/25

% Change

7/17/24

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-25

$2.47

$2.40

2.88%

$0.07

$2.47

0.00%

$2.47

-0.12%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-25

$2.15

$2.14

0.47%

$0.01

$2.25

-4.53%

$2.30

-6.52%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-25

$2.01

$2.00

0.50%

$0.01

$2.15

-6.60%

$2.20

-8.64%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-25

$2.20

$2.17

1.43%

$0.03

$2.35

-6.21%

$2.36

-6.73%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-25

$1.79

$1.77

0.85%

$0.01

$1.68

6.42%

$1.61

10.97%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-25

$652.98

$647.53

0.84%

$5.46

$674.98

-3.26%

$694.37

-5.96%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-25

$88.61

$86.65

2.26%

$1.96

$90.65

-2.25%

$94.42

-6.15%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/25

7/16/25

% Change

Change

6/17/25

% Change

7/17/24

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-25

57.96%

57.97%

-0.02%

-0.01%

62.52%

-7.29%

44.56%

30.07%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-25

71.42%

71.68%

-0.36%

-0.26%

74.03%

-3.53%

53.00%

34.75%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-25

145.63%

148.32%

-1.81%

-2.69%

124.74%

16.75%

59.70%

143.94%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-25

63.72%

63.91%

-0.30%

-0.19%

68.72%

-7.28%

46.74%

36.33%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-25

42.38%

45.41%

-6.67%

-3.03%

48.97%

-13.46%

39.01%

8.64%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-25

183.38%

186.80%

-1.83%

-3.42%

165.05%

11.11%

71.05%

158.10%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-25

98.70%

93.98%

5.02%

4.72%

90.84%

8.65%

70.30%

40.40%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/25

7/16/25

% Change

Change

6/17/25

% Change

7/17/24

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-25

EUR 34.91

EUR 35.13

-0.61%

-EUR 0.22

EUR 39.96

-12.62%

EUR 35.72

-2.26%

 

 

NBP

Sep-25

GBP 85.58

GBP 86.50

-1.07%

-GBP 0.93

GBP 97.35

-12.09%

GBP 87.69

-2.41%

 

 

German Base

Sep-25

EUR 88.48

EUR 88.98

-0.57%

-EUR 0.50

EUR 96.87

-8.67%

EUR 90.06

-1.76%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-25

GBP 80.57

GBP 80.75

-0.22%

-GBP 0.18

GBP 90.86

-11.33%

GBP 72.61

10.97%

 

 

French Base

Sep-25

EUR 53.94

EUR 58.26

-7.40%

-EUR 4.31

EUR 60.98

-11.54%

EUR 65.22

-17.28%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-25

EUR 117.15

EUR 117.08

0.06%

EUR 0.07

EUR 125.51

-6.66%

EUR 113.08

3.60%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-25

$12.28

$13.13

-6.48%

-$0.85

$14.05

-12.61%

$12.52

-1.93%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/25

7/16/25

% Change

Change

6/17/25

% Change

7/17/24

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-25

$34.91

$35.13

-0.61%

-$0.22

$39.96

-12.62%

$35.72

-2.26%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-25

$85.58

$86.50

-1.07%

-$0.93

$97.35

-12.09%

$87.69

-2.41%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-25

$88.48

$88.98

-0.57%

-$0.50

$96.87

-8.67%

$90.06

-1.76%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-25

$80.57

$80.75

-0.22%

-$0.18

$90.86

-11.33%

$72.61

10.97%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-25

$53.94

$58.26

-7.40%

-$4.31

$60.98

-11.54%

$65.22

-17.28%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-25

$117.15

$117.08

0.06%

$0.07

$125.51

-6.66%

$113.08

3.60%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-25

$12.28

$13.13

-6.48%

-$0.85

$14.05

-12.61%

$12.52

-1.93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/12/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

64

26

-22

231

101

-19

78.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

87

33

-11

338

110

-42

48.00%

-11.00%

 

 

E N Central

73

19

18

364

76

30

26.00%

9.00%

 

 

W N Central

73

5

21

404

25

23

7.00%

6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

109

14

-14

1,001

161

1

19.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

104

12

3

781

138

-15

21.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W S Central

117

-4

1

1,232

170

-49

16.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

90

15

-1

536

36

12

7.00%

2.00%

 

 

Pacific

49

10

-36

207

-14

-42

-6.00%

-17.00%

 

 

United States

85

14

-6

584

90

-13

18.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/12/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

-1

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

0

-2

-5

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

1

-3

-1

1

-6

-5

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-6

-2

1

-10

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-6

0

3

-9

2

NA

NA

 

 

United States

0

-2

0

1

-3

-1

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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