From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2018 10:06:40 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI US Ethanol Snapshot 10/31/18
Weekly ethanol update
- The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed supportive for US corn futures and slightly bullish for US ethanol futures.
- Production increased 35,000 barrels per day to 1.059 million barrels per day (bbl) and stocks decreased a large 1.151 million barrels to 22.746 million.
· A Bloomberg survey called for weekly US ethanol production to end up 9,000 barrels lower from last week and stocks to increase 281,000 barrels.
- US ethanol production of 1.059 million barrels per day is about 0.3% higher from about the same time a year ago and 4.3% above 4-weeks ago.
- Padd2 production was 975,000 barrels, up 21,000 from a week earlier.
- Early September 2018 to date US ethanol production is running 1.1% above the same period a year ago.
- There were no imports reported this week. 15,000 were reported last week.
- Ethanol stocks of 22.746 million barrels are down 3.0% from four weeks ago and up 5.9% from a year ago.
- Ethanol stocks dropped by most for any week since August 20, 2010. Back then EIA was just getting started with reporting weekly ethanol data.
- Days of inventory of 22.6 compared to 22.3 a month ago and 19.9 during comparable period a year ago.
- Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were down 3.16 million barrels to 226.17 million barrels.
- The net blender input of fuel ethanol was down 4,000 from the previous week at 936,000 bpd, above its 4-week average of 926,000 bpd.
- Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, decreased 50,000 to 9.259 million barrels, or 89.4 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline, down from 90.6 percent for the previous week.
- Our 2018-19 crop-year corn for ethanol usage is 5.750 billion bushels, 100 million above USDA’s current estimate of 5.650 and compares to 5.601 billion for 2017-18.
- We look for the 2018-19 September – August weekly ethanol production to average 1.069 million barrels. The average for the first eight weeks of the year is 1.032 million barrels.
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL 60603
ICE IM: treilly1
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