From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Friday, September 14, 2018 8:55:11 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 09/14/18

PDF attached


Weather and crop conditions

  • Models turned drier for the US. SA is a little drier.
  • Most WCB areas will be dry through Sunday with exceptions in the northwestern Corn Belt.
  • The eastern Midwest will see only little to no rain of significance through Sunday with portions of Ohio and eastern Kentucky seeing some rain from the remnants of Hurricane Florence Monday into Tuesday. 
  • The central and southern US Great Plains need rain.
  • This Philippines are awaiting a massive super typhoon predicted to impact 5.2 million people plus.
  • Brazil’s weather outlook looks favorable for soybean and corn planting progress, which already started.
  • Argentina will see additional rain by the end of the week.
  • Alberta, Canada will get heavy snow (Thursday, Saturday and Sunday) and then a hard freeze which may negatively impact some immature crops.
  • US HRW wheat country will see below average rainfall in the first week of the outlook.


cone graphic





                        WEST CORN BELT              EAST CORN BELT  

Tdy-Sat            10-20% daily cvg of                5-20% daily cvg of up

                        up to 0.40” and locally            to 0.25” and locally

                        more each day;                        more each day;

                        wettest NW                              wettest east

Sun-Mon                                                          30% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.50”;

                                                                        wettest east

Sun-Tue           80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                        and local amts to 1.50”;

                        driest south and far NW

Tue-Wed                                                          10-25% daily cvg of

                                                                        up to 0.30” and locally           

                                                                        more each day

Wed-Sep 21     80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                        and local amts to 2.0”;

                        far NW driest

Sep 20-22                                                        85% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.50”;

                                                                        wettest north

Sep 22             20% cvg of up to 0.50”          

                        and locally more                     

Sep 23-27        5-20% daily cvg of up             5-20% daily cvg of up

                        to 0.30” and locally                 to 0.30” and locally    

                        more each day                         more each day



                        DELTA                                   SOUTHEAST

Tdy-Sat            10-25% daily cvg of

                        up to 0.50” and locally

                        more each day;

                        wettest south

Sun                  Mostly dry with a few

                        insignificant showers

Mon-Sep 20     Up to 20% daily cvg of          

                        up to 0.30” and locally           

                        more each day; some              

                        days may be dry

Tdy-Mon                                                         70% cvg of 7.0-15.0”

                                                                        with a few bands of

                                                                        15.0-22.0” and locally

                                                                        more from east-central

                                                                        to central N.C. through

                                                                        east-central and central

                                                                        S.C. with 1.50-7.0” and

                                                                        locally more elsewhere

                                                                        in the Carolinas, south

                                                                        Va. and nearby areas in

                                                                        Ga. with up to 1.50” and

                                                                        locally more elsewhere;

                                                                        Rain is from

                                                                        Hurricane Florence

Tue-Sep 21                                                      10-25% daily cvg of

                                                                        up to 0.50” and locally

                                                                        more each day

Sep 21-23        80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                        and local amts to 1.50”

Sep 22-24                                                        70% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.50

Sep 24-27        10-25% daily cvg of

                        up to 0.35” and locally                       

                        more each day                        

Sep 25-27                                                        10-25% daily cvg of

                                                                        up to 0.35” and locally

                                                                        more each day

Source: World Weather and FI


Bloomberg weekly agenda


  • ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
  • Malaysia to announce crude palm oil export tax for October


  • Japan, Malaysia on public holidays
    • Rubber futures trading on Tokyo Commodity Exchange as well as palm oil on Bursa Malaysia will be halted
  • EU’s monthly Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) bulletin on crop progress and weather conditions in Europe
  • UN FAO releases report on agricultural commodity markets, with focus on trade, climate change and food security
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data, 10am ET (3pm London)
  • USDA weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association data on soy processing, noon
  • USDA weekly crop progress report, 4pm
  • Ivory Coast weekly cocoa arrivals


  • New Zealand dairy auction on Global Dairy Trade online market starts ~7am ET (~noon London, ~11pm Wellington)
  • Brazil’s crop agency Conab releases its 3rd estimate for 2018 coffee crop
  • Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) releases agricultural commodities report
  • The United Nations General Assembly opens, with general debate to begin Sept. 25, including speeches from numerous world leaders
  • EARNINGS: General Mills Inc.


  • EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am
  • USDA milk production data for August, 3pm
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) holds Intl Palm Oil Sustainability Conference in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, Sept. 19-20; Executives from FAO, Nestle, Olam, Sime Darby, MPOB expected to attend
  • INTL FCStone holds agribusiness conference in Sao Paulo, with Finance Minister Eduardo Guardia and BRF CEO Pedro Parente due to speak


  • Intertek and AmSpec release their respective data on Malaysia’s Sept. 1-20 palm oil exports, 11pm ET Wednesday (11am Kuala Lumpur Thursday)
    • SGS data for same period, 3am ET Thursday (3pm Kuala Lumpur Thursday)
  • USDA weekly net-export sales for corn, wheat, soy, cotton, 8:30am
  • USDA red meat production for August, 3pm
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
  • Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
  • Intl Palm Oil Sustainability Conference in Kota Kinabalu, final day


  • Ghana public holiday
  • FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
  • ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
  • USDA cattle-on-feed report for August, 3pm
  • CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm

Source: Bloomberg and FI


Bloomberg weekly bull/bear survey (taken after the USDA report)

·         Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 1 Neutral: 1

·         White sugar: Bullish: 4 Bearish: 1 Neutral: 2

·         White-sugar premium: Widen: 0 Narrow: 3 Neutral: 4

·         Wheat: Bullish: 3 Bearish: 4 Neutral: 4

·         Corn: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 6 Neutral: 4

·         Soybeans: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 8 Neutral: 2








·         US stocks are higher, USD higher, WTI crude higher, and gold higher, at the time this was written.

·         US Retail Sales (M/M) Aug: 0.1% (est 0.4% ; prevR 0.7% ; prev 0.5%)

          US Retail Sales Ex-Autos (M/M) Aug: 0.3% (est 0.5%; prevR 0.9% ; prev 0.6%)

          US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos Aug: 0.2% (prevR 0.9% ; prev 0.6%)

          US Retail Control Aug: 0.1% (est 0.4% ; prevR 0.8% ; prev 0.5%)

·         US Import Prices (M/M) Aug: -0.6% (est -0.2% ; prevR -0.1% ; prev 0.0%)

·         US Export Prices (M/M) Aug: -0.1% (est 0.0% ; prev -0.5%)




Export Developments

·         China sold 1,026,049 tons of corn at auction from state reserves at an average price of 1,444 yuan ($210.70) per ton, 26 percent of total corn available at the auction.

·         Yesterday China sold 2,902,204 tons of corn at auction from state reserves at an average price of 1,567 yuan ($228.81) per ton, 73.28 percent of total corn available at the auction.

·         China will sell another 8 million tons of corn next week.

·         China sold about 80 million tons of corn out of reserves this season.


Soybean complex.

·         Soybeans are higher on light technical buying despite lack of fresh news and chatter soybean yields in the Delta are good.

·         Meal is lower and soybean oil struggling higher on spreading, following indications from offshore values.

·         Gulf soybean basis remains historically low.

·         India imported 1.5 million tons of vegetable oils in August, up 11 percent from a year ago and palm oil accounted for 920,894 tons of the total. Soybean oil imports were 312,049 tons, better than previous month amounts.

·         Malaysia November palm fell to a two-week low by decreasing 21MYR to 2222, and cash was down $1.25 at $565/ton.

·         Rotterdam oils were lower and SA soybean meal when imported into Rotterdam lower. 

·         China cash margins were last 101 cents/bu on our analysis, and compares to 98 cents late last week, and 74 cents last year.

·         China January soybean futures were down 17 yuan or 0.5%, meal down 3 or 0.2%, soybean oil down 10 or 0.2% and palm down 28 yuan or 0.5%. 

·         Offshore values were suggesting a higher lead for US soybean meal by $0.90 ($2.00 lower for the week to date) and higher lead for soybean oil by 19 points (94 higher for the week).



Export Developments

·         The CCC seeks 1540 tons of fully refined vegetable oil on September 18 for carious countries for Oct/Nov delivery.

  • Iran seeks 30,000 tons of sunflower oil on September 24.
  • China sold about 2.29 MMT of soybeans out of reserves this season.



·         US wheat is higher on speculation Russia will have to curb wheat exports given the rapid pace of current exports.  We don’t buy into that.

·         Russian winter grain plantings have stalled in drought affected areas.

  • Asia is shopping for Argentina wheat in the wake of lower Australian wheat production.
  • Western Australia Wheat Output Seen Higher at 10.1M Tons: GIWA (Bloomberg)


Export Developments.

·         China sold 5,143 tons of imported 2013 wheat at auction of state reserves at an average price of 2,188 yuan per ton, 0.5 percent of the total wheat available at the auction.

  • Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on September 23, with offers valid until September 27.  Iraq needs wheat for four after Turkey restricted flour shipments.
  • Tunisia seeks durum and soft wheat and feed barley for Oct/Dec shipment.
  • Syria’s General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade (Hoboob) seeks 200,000 tons of soft bread wheat from Russia, Romania or Bulgaria, with shipment sought between Oct. 15 and Dec. 15. The deadline is Sept. 17 and requires payment in Syrian pounds.
  • Ethiopia seeks 200,000 tons of milling wheat on September 18 for shipment two months after contract signing.
  • Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley on September 19 for arrival by late February. 
  • Morocco seeks 336,364 tons of US durum wheat on September 28 for arrival by December 31.



·         Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of rice from India on October 9 for LH October / FH November shipment.



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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