From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Friday, August 17, 2018 8:37:18 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 08/17/18

PDF attached


Weather and crop conditions

·         US soybean and corn crop conditions could have stabilized this week. Look for the G/E ratings to be unchanged.

·         We look for spring wheat conditions to end up also unchanged.

·         6-10 is wetter for the northern Great Plains and northwestern Midwest, and drier for the Delta and southern Great Plains. The 11-15 day is drier for the northern and southern Great Plains. 

·         The drier forecast for the northwestern Midwest areas should be monitored as that areas was expected to see rain Sunday, and Tuesday & Wednesday next week.

·         Overall US weather will remain favorable into next week with timely rainfall and less threatening temperatures.

·         The Northern U.S. Delta and Tennessee River Basin will see good rains.

·         West Texas will see rain this weekend.

·         Canada’s Prairies will receive scattered showers and thunderstorms during the coming week.

·         Argentina will receive rain in the central and east this weekend.

·         Western Australia will see limited rain in northern and eastern parts of the production region during the next ten days.

Source: World Weather and FI



                                WEST CORN BELT                             EAST CORN BELT              

     -Fri                                                            90-100% cvg of 0.15-0.90”    

                                                                        and local amts over 2.0”;

                                                                        west Ky. to south In.


Fri-Sat              10-15% daily cvg of

                        up to 0.25” and locally

                        more each day; wettest

                        east Friday and wettest

                        west Saturday

Sat                                                                   30% cvg of up to 0.40”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.10”;

                                                                        south and east wettest

Sun                                                                  10% cvg of up to 0.20”

                                                                        and locally more

Sun-Mon          80% cvg of up to 0.75”          

                        and local amts over 2.0”;

                        far NW driest

Mon-Tue                                                          80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.50”

Tue                  10% cvg of up to 0.20”

                        and locally more

Wed-Aug 23    50% cvg of up to 0.40”

                        and local amts to 1.0”;

                        far NW driest                          

Wed-Aug 24                                                    5-20% daily cvg of up

                                                                        to 0.25” and locally

                                                                        more each day

Aug 24-25       45% cvg of up to 0.75”          

                        and locally more;                    

                        wettest north                            

Aug 25-26                                                       50% cvg of up to 0.60”

                                                                        and locally more         

Aug 26-28       65% cvg of up to 0.70”

                        and locally more                     

Aug 27-28                                                       70% cvg of up to 0.50”

                                                                        and locally more

Aug 29-31       5-20% daily cvg of up             10-25% daily cvg of

                        to 0.25” and locally                 up to 0.25” and locally

                        more each day                         more each day



                                DELTA                                                   SOUTHEAST

     -Fri            75% cvg of 0.60-1.50”

                        and local amts to 3.0”

                        north with up to 0.60”

                        and locally more in

                        central and southern


Fri-Sun                                                             85% cvg of 0.35-1.50”

                                                                        and local amts over 3.0”

                                                                        from east west

                                                                        Ga. with up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 2.0”


Sat-Sun            80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                        and local amts to 2.75”;

                        far north and far south


Mon-Tue          75% cvg of up to 0.55”

                        and local amts to 1.20”

Mon-Wed                                                        80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 2.0”

Wed-Aug 24    Up to 20% daily cvg of

                        up to 0.25” and locally

                        more each day; some

                        days may be dry

Aug 23-25                                                       60% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.50”;

                                                                        driest west                                

Aug 25-26       60% cvg of up to 0.65”

                        and local amts to 1.40”;

                        wettest north

Aug 26-30                                                       15-35% daily cvg of

                                                                        up to 0.60” and locally

                                                                        more each day

Aug 27-30       5-20% daily cvg of up

                        to 0.30” and locally

                        more each day

Source: World Weather and FI


Bloomberg weekly agenda


  • FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
  • ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • EARNINGS: Deere & Co.


  • Argentina, Egypt on holiday
  • Intertek, AmSpec release respective data on Malaysia’s Aug. 1-20 palm oil exports, 11pm ET Sunday (11am Kuala Lumpur Monday)
    • SGS data for same period, 3am ET Monday (3pm Kuala Lumpur Monday)
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data, 10am ET (3pm London)
  • USDA weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • USDA milk production data for July, 3pm
  • USDA weekly crop progress report, 4pm
  • ProFarmer U.S. soy/corn crop tour, Day 1
  • Ivory Coast weekly cocoa arrivals
  • Most active period of Atlantic hurricane season begins, and peaks around Sept. 10


  • Egypt on Eid Al-Adha holiday
  • Brazilian agency Conab’s 2nd estimate for 2018-19 sugarcane crop
  • New Zealand dairy auction on Global Dairy Trade online market starts ~7am ET (~noon London, ~11pm Wellington)
  • ProFarmer U.S. crop tour, Day 2


  • India, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt on holiday
  • Agritel presser on French wheat harvest 2018 season, 3am ET (9am Paris)
  • DBV outlook on German crop outlook
  • ProFarmer U.S. crop tour, Day 3
  • EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am
  • USDA cold-storage report for July, 3pm


  • China’s General Administration of Customs releases July agricultural commodity trade data (final), including imports of palm oil, wheat, cotton and corn, 2:30am ET (2:30pm Beijing)
  • Intl Grains Council’s monthly market forecasts, 8:30am ET (1:30pm London)
  • USDA weekly net-export sales for corn, wheat, soy, cotton, 8:30am
  • USDA red meat production for July, 3pm
  • Brazilian research foundation Fundecitrus releases report on greening incidence on oranges; Brazil is top producer, exporter
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
  • Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
  • ProFarmer U.S. crop tour, Day 4
  • U.S. is set to impose 25% tariffs on additional $16b in Chinese imports; China said it will retaliate
  • EARNINGS: Sanderson Farms, Hormel Foods


  • ProFarmer issues final yield estimates after crop tour, 2pm
  • USDA cattle-on-feed report for July, 3pm
  • Unica bi-weekly report on Brazil Center-South sugar output
  • Salvadoran coffee council’s El Salvador July export data
  • Nicaragua’s coffee council releases July export data
  • FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
  • ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm

Source: Bloomberg and FI



  • Soybeans down 44 to 12, Cofco Chicago



Weekly Bloomberg Bull/Bear survey (taken Wed)

·         Soybeans: Bullish: 1 Bearish: 7 Neutral: 3

·         Wheat: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 3 Neutral: 6

·         Corn: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 1 Neutral: 5

·         Raw Sugar : Bullish: 1 Bearish:3 Neutral: 3

·         White sugar: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 3 Neutral: 2

·         White-sugar premium: Widen: 1 Narrow: 4 Neutral: 2




·         US stocks are lower, USD lower, WTI crude higher, and gold higher, at the time this was written.




Export Developments

·         China sold 850,780 tons of corn out of auction at an average price of 1433 yuan per ton ($207.94/ton), 21.5 percent of wheat was offered. Yesterday China sold 1.53 million tons of corn out of auction at an average price of 1544 yuan per ton, 38.4 percent of wheat was offered.

·         China sold about 63.7 million tons of corn out of reserves this season.

·         Another 4 million tons will be offered late next week.


Soybean complex.

·         Offshore values are leading meal lower. Soybeans are weaker on lack of US country movement and weakening basis at the Gulf. Soybean oil may find support on higher crude oil.

·         The meeting between the US and China’s vice commerce minister will be August 22-23.

  • It appears the CBOT soybeans are headed to zero as demand out of the Lakes remains strong.
  • The Brazil AgMin plans to appeal a federal judge’s decision that suspended the use of glyphosate.
  • SEA sees India’s 2017-18 palm oil imports may fall 15 percent to 7.9MMT, a 6-year low. Edible oil imports are projected at 14.2MMT, 6 percent lower than 2016-17.
  • Dalian Commodity Exchange will lower intraday trading fees for soybean oil and palm oil futures by 50% to 1.25 yuan per lot from August 22.

·         China cash margins were last 96 cents/bu on our analysis, compared to 95 previous session, 87 cents late last week, and 94 cents last week.


Export Developments

  • Iran seeks 30,000 tons of sunflower oil on September 24.





·         Wheat futures are sharply higher.

·         Rumors the Russian AgMin may impose a 30-million-ton wheat export cap for 2018-19 sent US futures prices sharply higher. Grain production is expected to be down from last year after adverse weather hit a good portion of the major growing regions.

·         EU December wheat was 4.00 euros higher at 214.25 euros, at the time this was written.

  • Saskatchewan’s harvest progress as of August 13 was 5 percent complete. Hot and dry weather have hit the region.

·         The EU awarded 82,000 tons of reduced tariff wheat imports of various origins.

·         Yesterday September and December Chicago wheat poked above its 20-day MA but settled below it. The same happened in KC and MN, in the front months. Technically wheat looks bullish.   

·         A US trade official mentioned they see a “breakthrough” in NAFTA soon.


December EU wheat via Reuters & FI


Export Developments.

·         Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat on Aug 29 for Nov/Dec shipment.

·         Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on August 28.

  • Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley on August 22 for arrival by January 31. 



·         Egypt’s ESIIC seeks 100,000 tons (150k previously_ of raw sugar on Aug 18 for shipment within the first half of September and two 50,000-ton shipments from September 15-Oct 15.

·         Thailand to sell 120k tons of raw sugar on Aug. 22.





Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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