From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Friday, May 29, 2020 8:28:21 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 05/29/20

PDF attached

 

Morning.
The US will see a drier pattern over the next week.  Short covering still a feature today in grains while the trade waits for China to buy soybeans. 

 

(Reuters)
– China may reduce its imports of agricultural products from the United States if Washington issues a severe response to Beijing’s push to impose national security laws on Hong Kong, three sources said.

 

 

Weather

UNITED
STATES

  • GFS
    reduced rain in the northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday of next week

    • Some
      reduction was needed
  • GFS
    reduced rain in the central Plains Wednesday into Friday of next week

    • The
      reduction was needed
  • Some
    showers were increased in Oklahoma and the Delta late next week

    • Some
      increase in rain was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced in the northern Plains during the second weekend of outlook while it was increased in the eastern Canada Prairies

    • A
      little too much rain was removed from the northern Plains, but some increase in Canada rainfall was needed
  • GFS
    shifted the tropical cyclone predicted in the Gulf of Mexico near the central Texas Coast June 8 on the 00z GFS model run south to the southern Gulf of Campeche

    • Confidence
      in this change is low only because the tropical system has not evolved yet and there is a lack of consistency in various model predictions
  • Some
    showers were removed from the eastern Midwest during the second weekend of the outlook

    • The
      reduction was needed, but a few too many showers may have been removed
  • GFS
    reduced rain in the eastern Canada Prairies June 8-10 while showers were increased in the U.S. Midwest
  • GFS
    reduced rain in Texas coastal areas due to the southward shift in the predicted tropical cyclone June 8-10

    • This
      change may have been necessary

 

Today’s
forecast model runs have maintained a similar theme to that of Thursday with a ridge of high pressure coming into the Plains this weekend and early next week before shifting into the Midwest briefly early next week and then the ridge shifts a little farther
to the west again in the second half of next week before coming into the Plains again at the end of next of the week. The ridge is then shifted by the GFS model farther into the Midwest during the second weekend of the two-week outlook, but as stated Thursday
the GFS model pushes the ridge into the eastern Midwest too long and adjustments will be needed later. The precipitation outlook is similar to that of Thursday with rain ending in the eastern Midwest today and early Saturday while all other areas dry out until
mid-week next week. A cool front in the Midwest will induce thunderstorms Tuesday night into Thursday across a part of the Midwest favoring the western and southern portions of the region. That will be followed by another period of several days with limited
rainfall. The warmest weather in the Midwest will occur in the second weekend of the outlook and into the early part of the week of June 8. Portions of the Great Plains will be warm to hot during much of the forecast period.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • Rain
    was increased in interior southern Brazil during the second weekend of the outlook

    • This
      may have been overdone
  • GFS
    shifted rain southward in southern Brazil from Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and southeastern Paraguay to Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina June 8-10

    • This
      shift was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in much of southern Brazil June 11-12

    • The
      increase was overdone

 

No
change in the general weather theme was noted today. Argentina gets rain in the eastern part of the nation late next week. Otherwise the nation will continue dry biased leaving need for rain in western wheat areas.  Southern Brazil will continue to experience
frequent rainfall and should stay wet biased. Most of center south and portions of center west Brazil will not see much rainfall.

 

EUROPE/BLACK 
SEA

  • Rain
    was increased from northern Spain through southeastern France and northern Italy to northwestern Germany in the second weekend of the outlook

    • Some
      of this increase was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in southern France through southern Germany and northern Poland June 5-7

    • Some
      increase was needed, but the model may be a little too wet
  • Rain
    was reduced in eastern Europe, including the Balkan Countries into western Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States June 5-9

    • Some
      of this reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in the U.K. and parts of northern France June 8-10

    • This
      was overdone
  • Scattered
    showers occur in much of the European continent and in parts of the western CIS June 11-12, but the 06z GFS reduced some of the rain in the North Sea region which may have been a necessary change

 

The
overnight forecast models all seem to have a boost in rainfall for parts of western Europe – mostly France and Germany. The exception is the Canadian model which continues to limit precipitation in these areas in a manner consistent with that of Thursday.
After careful study of this situation today, World Weather, Inc. is of the opinion that some showers will occur briefly across the North Sea region during the second part of next week and into the following weekend, but a general soaking is not likely and
the relief that occurs will be temporary only to be followed by another round of drier weather in the June 8-12 period. Rainfall advertised in France and Germany by the European model seems to be overdone and that a compromise between the GFS and Canadian
model runs makes the most sense. The area of disturbed weather in western Europe should shift to the east into central and eastern Europe and the western CIS during the week of June 8.  In the meantime, areas in eastern Europe and the western CIS should see
the current wet weather pattern break down for a while next week with a short-term bout of drying to be followed by more rain in the June 8-12 period. Russia’s Southern region and eastern Ukraine will see limited rainfall after this weekend until the week
of June 8 and even then, it will be light.

 

EASTERN
CIS NEW LANDS

  • Rain
    was reduced throughout the New Lands during much of the second week forecast

    • Some
      of the reduction was needed, but the region may now be advertised too dry

 

Most
of the overnight models have reduced rainfall in the central and eastern Russia New Lands region. Temperatures are not advertised to be hot, but more seasonable. The general change today is less rain and not as cool as advertised Thursday. Some of the change
was needed, but the region is being advertised a little too dry. The area of greatest interest remains in spring wheat and sunseed areas in the southeastern part of the New lands near the Kazakhstan border where soil moisture is a little light already and
this area needs greater rain.

 

CHINA

  • Today’s
    forecast leaves the region from east-central China through the western part of Inner Mongolia in a net drying model through June 4

    • This
      represents no change from that of Thursday
  • A
    weak weather disturbance will bring light showers to the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain June 5-6 offering a temporary break from dryness

    • This
      represents a little increase in rainfall over that of Thursday, although resulting rain amounts are light
  • Showers
    are still advertised to occur during the June 8-10 period in parts of this dry region as well offering a little more moisture for the region

    • This
      is no change from previous model runs

 

The
overall bottom line this morning is that there is a little more rainfall is suggested in the second week of the forecast today versus that of Thursday.  World Weather, Inc. is still of the opinion that the rain will be erratic and mostly light with a few localized
areas of moderate rain and that should leave the region with some additional need for rain and some areas may still be quite dry by June 12.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

7-day Total Precipitation (millimeters)

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Seven-day
outlook:

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
May 29:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • U.S.
    Agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases data on coffee, rice, rubber exports in May
  • Shanghai
    exchange’s weekly commodities inventory

MONDAY,
June 1:

  • International
    Coffee Organization to hold virtual meeting of International Coffee Council, June 1-5
  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop progress — corn, soybean plantings, winter wheat conditions, 4pm
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly market balance outlook
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Honduras
    and Costa Rica May Coffee Exports
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for May 1-31
  • Australia
    Commodity Index
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Brazil
    soybean exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Germany, Italy, Belgium, New Zealand

TUESDAY,
June 2:

  • U.S.
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data (delayed because of holiday)

WEDNESDAY,
June 3:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly forecast on crop output, supply and demand
  • EARNINGS:
    Tereos

THURSDAY,
June 4:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • FAO
    world food price index, 4am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand commodity price

FRIDAY,
June 5:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for June 1-5

Source:
Bloomberg and FI