From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Thursday, May 21, 2020 8:04:15 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 05/21/20

PDF attached

 

 

 

 

Weather

The
US CPC looks for above normal temperatures for June-August period.

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    serious changes were noted over the next week to ten days, although the day to day distribution of greatest rainfall gets adjusted periodically

    • Frequent
      rain occurs across the Midwest tonight into the end of next week
    • There
      is a little more rainfall in the lower Midwest for late next week than suggested on previous GFS model runs

      • This
        feature was overdone
  • Cooler
    air is still being advertised to push into the Midwest briefly after the frequent rainfall occurs through the middle to latter part of next week

    • The
      GFS is cooler this morning than its previous model run with a deeper trough of low pressure over eastern North America in the last days of May and early June
  • Less
    rain occurs in the last days of May and early June while the cool air is in place
  • GFS
    model brings a reinforcing shot of cool air to the Midwest in early June with some rain preceding that event across the Midwest

    • This
      reinforcing shot of cool air and rainfall may be overdone
  • Periods
    of rain occur in the southern Plains during the next ten days to two weeks and the morning GFS model run is wetter over the region and has brought significant rain to the high Plains region from Colorado and western Kansas into western Texas

    • Some
      of this rainfall was overdone, but some increase is possible if the cooler air moves through the eastern U.S. as advertised in the last days of May or early June; World Weather, Inc. believes the cold and rain are overdone

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • No
    serious changes were noted in the first week of the outlook
  • The
    second week was a little less wet for western and southern Brazil than the previous model run and the change was needed
  • Some
    rain was removed from southern Argentina late next week and that change was needed

 

The
overall bottom line does not change. Argentina will get some rain in the east today and Friday but be dry during the following week favoring a return of fieldwork. Some western and southern areas in Argentina will need significant rain soon to support wheat
planting and establishment. Brazil rainfall will continue periodic from Rio Grande do Sul to Parana and from that region through Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul to southwestern Mato Grosso where soil and crop conditions will continue most favorable. Areas to
the northeast will see more limited rainfall and experience net drying. Rain in these wetter areas is expected today into Saturday and then again in the early days of June.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  •  No
    significant change was noted in the first week of the outlook
  • Rain
    was reduced from eastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria into western Ukraine for late May 28-30

    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • Showers
    were increased in Poland and areas southward into Austria May 28-30

    • The
      increase was needed
  • Showers
    were removed from France and northern Spain

    • Too
      much rain was removed
  • Scattered
    showers were removed from much of Europe May 31-June 2

    • Some
      reduction was needed especially in western Europe
  • Rain
    was removed from much of Europe June 3-4

    • This
      change was needed, although too much rain was removed from parts of the region
  • Rain
    was increased in northeastern Europe and northwestern parts of Russia

    • Some
      increase was needed

Overall,
a favorable scattering of showers and thunderstorms should impact the western CIS and eastern Europe during the coming week to ten days maintaining a favorable environment for crop development in many areas. Some dryness will remain in parts of Kazakhstan
and parts of Russia’s Southern Region, but World Weather, Inc. does not perceive the situation in these areas getting worse. Recent precipitation has brought some improvement, but production cuts because of poor planting an establishment conditions occurred
last autumn and a tough start to the growing season earlier this spring. Spring wheat areas should get enough moisture to experience fair to good development potential. Western Europe, in the meantime, will continue to dry out for a while and that will bring
on increasing moisture stress for crops in the U.K., northern France and possibly some areas in western Germany, Belgium and Netherlands.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Seven-day
outlook:

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
May 21:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    red meat production, 3 pm
  • U.S.
    cold storage – pork, beef, poultry
  • HOLIDAY:
    France, Germany, Belgium, Indonesia

FRIDAY,
May 22:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3 pm
  • Shanghai
    exchange’s weekly commodities inventory, 15.30
  • EARNINGS:
    Sime Darby Plantation

SATURDAY,
May 23:

  • China
    May trade data, including agricultural imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

  • US
    pork export sales slumped to 5,800 tons. 
  • Soybeans
    were above expectations at 1.205 million tons. China was the dominant buyer of soybeans at 737,400 tons (decrease of 600 tons).  Meal was 198,800 tons with shipments at 208,900 tons and soybean oil export sales at a very good 62,100 tons with shipments at
    11,700 tons.
  • All-wheat
    export sales were 175,800 tons. New-crop was better at 252,400 tons. Combined they were within expectations. 
  • Corn
    export sales came in at 884,200 tons, within expectations. 
  • US
    sorghum export sales were 83,100 tons. 

 

 

 

 

Macros

·        
US Initial Jobless Claims May-16: 2438K (exp 2400K; prev 2981K)

–         
Continuing Claims May-9: 25073K (exp 24250K; prev 22833K)

·        
US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook May: -43.1 (exp -40.0; prev -56.6)

 

 

 

 

Corn.

·        
Corn futures were moderately lower on lower soybeans and higher wheat. China will start its seasonal auction for corn on May 28. 

·        
Some sections of the northern IL river are closed due to flooding. 

·        
China is expected to receive around 9,000 tons of US ethanol after the country waived tariffs. 

·        
The weekly USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US down 2 percent and chicks placed down 10 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 4, 2020 through May 16, 2020 for the United States were 3.70 billion. Cumulative
placements were down slightly from the same period a year earlier.

·        
US ethanol production for the week ending 5/15 rose less than expected, up 46,000 barrels to 663,000, highest since early April.  Stocks declined a large 564,000 barrels reflecting a rebound in consumption, even though gasoline supplied
fell from the previous week.  A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to be up 54,000 stocks to decrease 275,000 barrels to 23.915 million.

 

Corn
Export Developments

·        
China plans to sell 4 million tons of corn from state reserves on May 28.  This would be the first auction of the season.  3.66 million tons of corn is from 2015. 

 

 

Soybean
complex
.

·        
China

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