From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 6:54:13 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 04/13/20

PDF attached


wheat is higher on solid global import demand, corn lower on US feed and industrial demand woes and soybean complex mixed with soybean oil lower on a 3 percent decline in palm prices.  Little planting, if any, was completed across the US Delta and Southeast
over the weekend due to widespread precipitation. 





weather bureau estimates a 60 percent chance of no El Nino.



Weather’s take on the 06z run this morning:


  • GFS
    reduced rain from northern Alabama through southeastern Kentucky and the southern Appalachian Mountains

    • The
      change was needed
  • GFS
    reduced heavy rain suggested from southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana to northern Florida and southern Georgia Sunday into next Monday the model also shifted some of the greater rainfall a little farther to the north from northeastern Louisiana
    to South Carolina

    • These
      changes were needed
  • GFS
    shifted rain to the northwest during mid-week next week with areas from Missouri to southern Ohio and Kentucky getting 0.50 to0 1.50 inches of rain instead of mostly Kentucky and Tennessee previously

    • The
      some of the change was needed
  • Precipitation
    was removed from the west-central high Plains during early next week
  • GFS
    intensified a storm in the Great Plains late next week and into the following Saturday

    • This
      feature was too intense
  • The
    same storm noted above in the Great Plains moves through the Midwest April 25-26and was also too intense in that region, as well

bottom line remains about as it has been. This week will be coldest east of the Rocky Mountains and a warming trend is expected to evolve next week. This morning’s large storm in the central and eastern U.S. April 24-26 is overdone, but there will be potential
for increased rainfall during the second half of next week and into the following weekend. There will still be too much rain in the Delta and southeastern states over the next two weeks which will hinder fieldwork.



  • No
    significant changes were noted in the first week of the outlook this morning
  • GFS
    reduced rain from northern Rio Grande do Sul to Paraguay and western Mato Grosso do Sul early next week

    • The
      change was needed
  • GFS
    reduced rain from Uruguay into Entre Rios and immediate neighboring areas of Argentina late next week into the following Saturday

    • The
      reduction was needed
  • GFS
    intensified rainfall advertised from Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil to northeastern Argentina April 25-27

    • This
      will not verify

bottom line remains about the same today. Argentina will experience restricted rainfall, although not totally dry conditions. The environment will be good for late maturing crops and for promoting additional harvest progress. Southern Brazil will get some
rain, but there is potential for net drying in at least a part of the region. Northern Brazil will continue to experience frequent rainfall this week with a decrease in rainfall next week.




  • France
    and western Germany are wetter for late next weekend into early next week

  • Eastern
    Europe is drier today than Sunday with rain limited to today and Tuesday as a cool front moves through the region
  • Some
    reduction in precipitation was noted in western Russia mostly to the west of the Ural Mountains and from the middle Volga River Basin northward in the first week of the outlook
  • Some
    rain will fall in Ukraine, albeit only lightly
  • Kazakhstan
    is still advertised to get very little precipitation
  • China’s
    Yangtze River Basin is still advertised to become rainy again
  • Australia
    will be drier this week
  • North
    Africa will be wetter than usual this week
  • South
    Africa will be wetter than usual this week


World Weather Inc. and FI






World Weather Inc. and FI






Ag Calendar

April 13:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • U.S.
    crop progress – corn, soybeans, cotton; winter wheat condition, 4pm
  • Easter
    Monday holiday in many countries, including Australia, U.K. and Germany

April 14:

  • China
    soybean import data
  • Vietnam
    trade data for rice, rubber and coffee
    India, Bangladesh

April 15:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • AmSpec,
    Intertek palm oil export data for April 1-15
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly cereals balance sheet
  • New
    Zealand food prices
  • Malaysia
    CPO export tax
  • India
    monsoon forecast (tentative)

April 16:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
    Barry Callebaut half-yearly results

April 17:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Bloomberg and FI



Of Illinois:

  • Acres
    & Crisis: Prospective Plantings and Perspectives from the Past.

J., N. Paulson, G. Schnitkey, C. Zulauf and K. Swanson. "Acres & Crisis: Prospective Plantings and Perspectives from the Past."
farmdoc daily (10):66,  Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 9, 2020. 



Effects on Livestock Markets from COVID-19 Pandemic



Commitment of Traders

As of 4/7/20

Traditional funds were less short in corn by 20,100 contracts and more long in soybeans by 26,700 contracts. 

There were no major surprises in wheat or soybean products. 

Traditional funds and managed money sold about 18,000 soybean meal contracts over the five-day period and bought around 8,000 soybean meal.