From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2020 8:03:38 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 03/17/20

PDF attached


USD surges this morning on Kashkari FED comments.  “Negative rates” were tossed in a one liner. 
is seeing export delays.  Another leading analysts slashes SA soybean and corn production.  Egypt is in for vegetable oils and SK bought a couple cargos of corn overnight.  Wheat import tenders continue to develop. 



A close up of a map

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Source: Bloomberg and FI





weather will not provide much bullish support except from the United States where a wet bias will continue in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin as well as in parts of central and eastern crop areas of Texas. South Texas moisture will be welcome and dry conditions
in the far southeastern U.S. will support planting.

America weather is still advertised to be mostly good for Argentina and southern Brazil, although the distribution of rain over the next two weeks will have much to say about late season corn, soybean and peanut production.

Africa rainfall will be good for production and drier weather in eastern Australia will be supportive of early season sorghum and other coarse grain and oilseed crops.

winter crops are still poised for excellence this year and drier weather will be needed in late March and especially April to protect crop quality.         

winter weather has spring planting prospects looking very good. Rain in Spain and Portugal will improve spring planting potentials and support improved winter crop conditions.

is still needed throughout Southeast Asia, but mostly in the mainland areas and in some of the northern palm oil and coconut production areas.

weather today will maintain a neutral to bearish bias to market mentality



in southern Russia and southern Ukraine this week will help keep winter crop development in check after recent greening. Winter crop development potential in China remains very good and India is experiencing some fine filling conditions after a successful
reproductive season. Europe wheat small grain production potential continues to improve and rain in North Africa and Spain this week may bring on some improvement for those areas as well.

winter crops are in mostly good shape, although drier weather is needed in the Delta. Southeastern Canada and the heart of the Midwest also need some drier weather.

weather today will maintain a neutral to bearish bias to market mentality.

World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


Ag Calendar


  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction


  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am


  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    total milk, red meat production, 3pm


  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • AmSpec,
    Intertek, SGS release palm oil export data for March 1-20
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Bloomberg and FI



Meal down 45

Rice down 26





inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat  449,653         versus   350000-600000  range

Corn      977,879         versus   700000-1050000                range

Soybeans  436,358   versus   400000-750000  range



USD is up sharply. 




Corn futures are mixed on lack of direction. 

South Korea was active overnight picking up a couple cargos. 

  • Soybean
    and Corn Advisor:

Brazil Corn Estimate Lowered 2.0 mt to 98.0 Million Tons

Argentina Corn Estimate Unchanged at 49.0 Million Tons

Funds were estimated big sellers of corn yesterday, selling net 33,000 contracts. 

Ukraine has no plans to stop corn exports. 

Spot ethanol traded at its lowest level on record to $1.03/gallon. Meanwhile RBOB traded below 75 cents. 

(Reuters) – French sugar group Cristal Union will stop producing ethanol biofuel at one of its plants to switch it to alcohol. 

The EU imported 14.83 million tons of corn so far this year, down 14 percent from the same period  year ago. 

USDA US corn export inspections as of March 12, 2020 were 977,879 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 829,865 tons previous week and compares to 812,893 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 334,507 tons, Japan
for 260,907 tons, and Colombia for 91,972 tons.






  • CBOT

    rebounded off a 10-month low on dryness in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina. 
  • Yesterday
    IEG Vantage noted the soybean condition in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul fell hard from the previous week. Limited rainfall has been hurting soybean conditions since early February.  SBO trying to rebound following offshore values. 
  • Soybean
    and Corn Advisor:

Brazil Soybean Estimate Lowered 2.0 mt to 123.0 Million

Argentina Soybean Estimate Lowered 3.0 mt to 51.0 Million

  • Argentina’s
    export chamber noted export delays out of Rosario as the government attempts to contain coronavirus. 
  • 2
    cargos of Brazilian soybeans were booked to China this morning. 
  • NOPA’s
    soybean crush came in above trade expectations and soybean oil stocks were more than 100 million pounds below an average trade guess. 

USDA US soybean export inspections as of March 12, 2020 were 436,358 tons, low end of a range of trade expectations, below 579,102 tons previous week and compares to 849,700 tons year ago. Major countries included Egypt for 171,654 tons,
Mexico for 52,042 tons, and Japan for 30,407 tons.

  • Offshore
    values are leading CBOT soybean oil 102 points higher and meal $3.50 higher.

Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were mixed. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were unchanged to 3.00 euros higher. 


China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 132 cents per bushel (138 previous), and compares to 128 cents a week ago and negative 28 cents around this time last year. 

Malaysian palm markets:


Export Developments




US wheat
mostly higher on bottom picking but a surge in the USD could put a damper on that market. 

May Paris wheat futures were down 2.00 euros as of early this morning.

EU soft wheat exports reached 22.2 million tons since July, a staggering 72 percent increase from the same period a year ago.  We don’t see EU slowing down anytime soon. 

USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of March 12, 2020 were 449,653 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 459,400 tons previous week and compares to 385,143 tons year ago. Major countries included Philippines for 66,080 tons,
Japan for 57,807 tons, and Nigeria for 52,003 tons.


– The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service in a weekly crop report on Monday rated
46% of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 47% a week earlier.  Kansas is the biggest U.S. winter wheat producer. The USDA reported surplus moisture in 18% of Kansas topsoil, up from 7% a week ago.

For Texas, the No. 2 winter wheat state by planted area, the USDA rated
36% of the crop as good to excellent, up from 26% the previous week.

The Texas corn crop was 29% planted, up from 28% a week earlier and ahead of the state’s five-year average of 16%.

For Oklahoma, the USDA rated 67% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition,
up from 58% a week earlier.

The USDA said 10% of Oklahoma’s winter wheat had reached the jointing stage of growth, compared with the five-year average of 20%.

For Colorado, the USDA rated 46% of the winter wheat as good to excellent, a
decline from 59% in the state’s previous report, released at the end of February.

Farmers in the Plains state grow hard red winter wheat, the largest U.S. wheat class, which is milled into flour for bread.

In Arkansas, where farmers grow soft red winter wheat used to make cookies and snack foods, the USDA rated 39% of the state’s wheat as good to excellent,

The USDA on Jan. 10 said U.S. farmers planted 30.804 million acres of winter wheat for 2020 harvest, down 1% from a year earlier and the fewest since 1909. (Full Story)




  • Tunisia’s state grains agency bought at least 67,000 tons of durum wheat.  Lowest
    price offered was $326.00 a ton c&f. Tunisia also bought 25,000 tons of optional origin soft milling wheat at an estimated $220.94 a ton c&f. They last picked up soft wheat on March 11 at $206.74/ton.  The durum is for April 10-May 25 shipment, depending on
    origin, and soft wheat for April 1-10 shipment. 
  • Jordan received no participants for milling wheat.  They were in for 120,000
  • Results awaited: Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of durum wheat on March 17 for
    April shipment. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on March 18. 
  • Japan in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons
    of feed barley for arrival in Japan by Aug 27, on March 18. 
  • Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia by March 23.  No purchase was
    made that closed on February 17. 
  • Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on April 7.  IN a separate tender, they
    seek 200,000 tons of wheat on April 1.  Both are optional origin. 



  • South Korea seeks 73,664 tons of rice on March 25 for arrival around end of Sep. to Oct 31. 



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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