From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Monday, March 16, 2020 8:24:44 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 03/16/20

PDF attached




Slashes Rates to Near Zero, Deploys Massive Bond Buying of $700 bil. Macros continue to dictate prices.  Fundamentals will return eventually. 



Source: Reuters and FI





weather will not provide much bullish support except from the United States where a wet bias will continue in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin as well as in parts of central and eastern crop areas of Texas. South Texas moisture will be welcome and dry conditions
in the far southeastern U.S. will support planting.

America weather is still advertised to be mostly good for Argentina and southern Brazil, although the distribution of rain over the next two weeks will have much to say about late season corn, soybean and peanut production.

Africa rainfall will be good for production and drier weather in eastern Australia will be supportive of early season sorghum and other coarse grain and oilseed crops.

winter crops are still poised for excellence this year and drier weather will be needed in late March and especially April to protect crop quality.         

winter weather has spring planting prospects looking very good. Rain in Spain and Portugal will improve spring planting potentials and support improved winter crop conditions.

is still needed throughout Southeast Asia, but mostly in the mainland areas and in some of the northern palm oil and coconut production areas.

weather today will maintain a neutral to bearish bias to market mentality



in southern Russia and southern Ukraine this week will help keep winter crop development in check after recent greening. Winter crop development potential in China remains very good and India is experiencing some fine filling conditions after a successful
reproductive season. Europe wheat small grain production potential continues to improve and rain in North Africa and Spain this week may bring on some improvement for those areas as well.

winter crops are in mostly good shape, although drier weather is needed in the Delta. Southeastern Canada and the heart of the Midwest also need some drier weather.

weather today will maintain a neutral to bearish bias to market mentality.

World Weather Inc. and FI



World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


Ag Calendar


  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • AmSpec,
    Intertek, SGS release palm oil export data for March 1-15
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals


  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction


  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am


  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    total milk, red meat production, 3pm


  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • AmSpec,
    Intertek, SGS release palm oil export data for March 1-20
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Bloomberg and FI







Commitment of Traders



For soybeans traditions funds bought an estimated net 20,100 funds futures only contracts.  At net long 31,500 contracts, funds bought 37,100 contracts more than expected. 

For corn traditional funds bought an estimated net 9,300 funds futures only contracts.  At net long 14,900 contracts as of March 10, funds bought 15,300 contracts more long than estimated. 

Funds also missed the position in soybeans meal.  Funds were 31,400 contracts more long than expected. 








Equities and bonds are in focus. 





Corn futures are lower on weakness in WTI and other outside commodity markets. 

Germany reported a H5N8 bird flu case in Saxony. 






Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were 10-20/ton lower. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were mixed. 

China soybean meal was higher overnight by 2.5-3.0 percent as traders remain concerned soybean shipments from Brazil will be delayed. 

China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 138 cents per bushel, and compares to 128 cents a week ago and negative 28 cents around this time last year. 

  • ITS
    reported Malaysian palm exports at 489,635 tons for the first 15 days of the month, down 9.6 percent from the same period a month ago. 

Malaysian palm markets:


Export Developments




US wheat is
following outside markets despite strong global import demand.   

Egypt said they have enough wheat for 3.6 months in reserves.  They also said they have enough soybean oil to last until August 1. 

Germany’s 2020 wheat crop was seen at 22.79 million tons, according to the local farm coop, down 1.2 percent from last year.  The rapeseed crop was seen at 3.44 million tons, up 21.9 percent from last year. 

May Paris wheat futures were down 2.00 euros as of early this morning.



  • Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of durum wheat on March 17 for April shipment. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on March 18. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on March 17. 
  • Japan in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons
    of feed barley for arrival in Japan by Aug 27, on March 18. 
  • Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia by March 23.  No purchase was
    made that closed on February 17. 
  • Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on April 7.  IN a separate tender, they
    seek 200,000 tons of wheat on April 1.  Both are optional origin. 



  • South Korea seeks 73,664 tons of rice on March 25 for arrival around end of Sep. to Oct 31. 
  • Sugar prices hit a 6-month low. 



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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