From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 8:18:24 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 03/13/20

PDF attached


you most likely heard, the CME has suspended floor trading for options at the conclusion of Friday’s session. As we all deal with the uncertainty of this unknown virus and attempt to navigate the unknowns, we wanted to give an overview of what avenues for
trading of options are available. Futures International LLC is and will remain one of the largest liquidity providers for agricultural products, having access to the world’s largest liquidity pools available.  We have all the systems already in place to access
these markets through block trades, cross trades, Globex and OTC if desired.  Our liquidity pool includes, but not limited to, hedge funds, market makers, locals, and money managers that make markets.  Futures International LLC has already been practicing
execution during non pit hours for several years, so we are more than ready for this transition.  As one of the largest options companies at the CBOT, we can provide the service needed both through execution and discovery.


Central banks are injecting money into local economies.  
US equity futures were limit up early this morning.  China lowered bank reserve requirements for the second time this year. 



Source: Reuters and FI






over U.S. wet weather will begin to rise as an active weather pattern further delays early-season planting of corn in the Delta and interior southeastern parts of the nation.

has fallen significantly in parts of central Argentina the past two days and more rain is coming for much of the nation over the next four days bolstering topsoil moisture for improved crop conditions after several weeks of dry and warm weather.

in southern Brazil will stress some crops and threaten a little production since there will not be much relief prior to early next week. Relief next week may be temporary with additional drying coming a little later in the month.

is plenty moist and poised for good early spring crop development, although moisture is needed in the southeastern and southwestern corners of the continent. Recent flooding and that expected to continue in northwestern Europe could damage a few crops in low-lying

winter crops along with those in India will perform well this winter with good yields.

weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality.



weather and that which is coming this week will continue to promote early season winter crop development in the U.S. southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states as well as southern Russia, southern Ukraine and parts of China. Moisture in Canada’s Prairies
will improve spring planting conditions when seasonal warming begins. North Africa will continue struggling for moisture in Morocco and northwestern Algeria as well as in parts of Spain this week, but some rain may fall this weekend into next week to offer
a little relief.

Overall weather today will likely provide a neutral to bearish bias to market mentality.

World Weather Inc. and FI



World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


Ag Calendar


  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions


  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • AmSpec,
    Intertek, SGS release palm oil export data for March 1-15
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals


  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction


  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am


  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    total milk, red meat production, 3pm


  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • AmSpec,
    Intertek, SGS release palm oil export data for March 1-20
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Bloomberg and FI







Higher trade in equities. 

US Tsy Sec Mnuchin: : Fed, Treasury Are Working To Provide Unlimited Liquidity – – CNBC

NY Fed Accepts $45.15B Of $45.15B In Bids At Overnight Repo Operation

US House Speaker Pelosi: Trump Admin, House Democrats Are Close To A Deal On New COVID-19 Legislation

US President Trump Calls For Payroll Tax Cut – Twitter




Worst weekly loss for agriculture markets since 2008. 

Corn is higher on strength in WTI crude oil and bottom picking.   Funds sold an estimated net 30,000 corn contracts in the previous two sessions.  

A top China oil trader is looking to back out of some crude deals, according to Bloomberg. 

China will waive port construction fees for international cargos (from March 1) until June 30. 

Yesterday US gasoline futures fell to its lowest level since 2008.  Ethanol futures are higher this morning but the large decline in energy prices is straining the US ethanol industry. 





Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were unchanged for nearby soybean oil positions and down around 25 euros for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were mixed. 


China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 128 cents per bushel (120 previous), and compares to 136 cents a week ago and negative 21 cents around this time last year. 

  • India’s
    vegetable oil imports in February fell 10 percent to 1.1 million tons from a year ago (SEA). Palm oil imports in February stood at 540,470 tons (594,470 tons in January) and soyoil imports were 322,448 tons.

Malaysian palm markets:
a five-month low. Down 7 percent for the week. 

  • Argentina’s
    BA Grains Exchange lowered its projection for soybeans to 52 million tons, from 54.5 million tons.  They are not the only local group to lower Argentina’s soybean production.  Argentina’s Rosario Stock Exchange this morning unexpectedly projected lower to
    51.5 million tons from 55 million tons. They cited a fall in soybean yields due lack of rains over the past few days. 


Export Developments




US wheat is
on technical buying. 

French soft wheat conditions declined to 63 percent G/E as of March 9, down one point from the previous day, well down from 96% year ago.  It’s the lowest for this time in nine years.  Spring barley sowing
was 34% complete by Monday, up only marginally from 33% a week earlier and 32% two weeks ago.

May Paris wheat futures were up 2.25 euros as of early this morning.

Russian wheat exports fell 12 percent to 26.7 million tons, crop year to date, from last season, according to the Federal Center of Quality & Safety Assurance for Grain & Grain Products.

The southern Great Plains wheat has an opportunity for rain one time or another over the next week.  The Northern Great Plains may see rain on and off over the next two weeks, but temperatures will be mainly
below normal. 




  • Japan bought 100,100 tons of milling wheat-AgMin. 
  • Results awaited: Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia, Bulgaria,
    or Romania, on March 11. 
  • Japan in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons
    of feed barley for arrival in Japan by Aug 27, on March 18. 
  • Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia by March 23.  No purchase was
    made that closed on February 17. 
  • Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on April 7.  IN a separate tender, they
    seek 200,000 tons of wheat on April 1.  Both are optional origin. 



  • None reported



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail


Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons.  All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.  Each investment product is offered
only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction.  The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making
your investment decisions.  Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.  All investors
should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision.  The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or
sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative.  The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy
of such information or opinions.  Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.


This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for
the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender
immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.