From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Monday, March 09, 2020 8:59:36 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 03/09/20

PDF attached


WTI in focus today as Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to argue. WTI traded $10 lower overnight and recoil in the equity markets are in focus.   A level one circuit breaker for equities was triggered and trading resumed 15 min thereafter.  We are seeing selling
spill over into the ag markets. 





needed rain will fall in some very important Argentina crop areas this week to help curb moisture stress and to protect production potentials. Greater rain will be needed in the north and far south. Brazil weather should be mostly good with some relief from
recent drying in the west and south next week. South Africa will experience a few showers and thunderstorms with some net drying. Europe is plenty moist and poised for good early spring crop development, although moisture is needed in the southeast corner
of the continent. China winter crops along with those in India will perform well this winter with good yields. U.S. planting concerns will slowly rise over the next few weeks as the wet biased pattern from the southeastern Plains to the lower eastern Midwest
and Tennessee River Basin prevails.

weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality.



weather and that which is coming this week will continue to promote earlier than usual winter crop development in the U.S. central and southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states as well as southern Russia, southern Ukraine and parts of China. Moisture
in Canada’s Prairies will improve spring planting conditions when seasonal warming begins. North Africa will continue struggling for moisture in Morocco and northwestern Algeria as well as in parts of Spain.

weather today will likely provide a neutral to bearish bias to market mentality.

World Weather Inc. and FI



World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


Ag Calendar


  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals


  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
  • Brazil
    Conab soybean and corn yield, area and production, 8am
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) supply & demand monthly report
  • AmSpec,
    Intertek, SGS release palm oil export data for March 1-10
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board data on palm production, exports, stocks
  • Ros
    Agro 4Q results


  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Santander
    and Datagro hold sugar, ethanol conference, Sao Paulo
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly cereals balance sheet


  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand food prices, 5:45pm


  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Bloomberg and FI









Commitment of Traders

Big changes for the week ending March 3 for soybeans and corn. Money managers that week bought net 39,400 soybean contracts and 58,800 soybean meal.  Money managed were light net sellers of corn and bought soybean oil and wheat. 

Funds were much less long in corn than expected by 33,200 contracts, and also much less long in Chicago by 22,500 contracts.  Funds were off 19,800 contracts in their meal position.











Recoil in the equity markets are in focus. 




Corn futures were sinking by more than 8 cents after the day session open.  While we are seeing an uptick on global import tender business the fundamentals are basically a nonmarket factor with currency fluctuations and downside move in
energy and equities.  One fact is for sure, Brazil commodity products are cheaper from last week and this is concerning for bulls banking on US export demand. 

WTI crude tanked and DOW futures are seeing their worst one-day loss in years.  

Bottom line is it will take months to quantify the impact of economic conditions from this coronavirus. 

China is looking to set up 29 locust monitoring sites along the border by the end of March. 




USDA Attaché updated their China corn S&D

and they look for corn imports in 2019-20 to end up near 6 million tons.  China took more than 2.0 million tons of Ukrainian corn during the September through mid-February period. In 2018-19 China bought 3.84 million tons of corn from Ukraine.  It’s hard to
see China buying more than 3.0 million tons of corn from the United States for the 2019-20 marketing year even if US prices become competitive.



Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were down 23 euros for nearby soybean oil positions and down around 13 euros for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were 2-4 euros lower. 


China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 129 cents per bushel, and compares to 136 cents a week ago and negative 21 cents around this time last year. 

Malaysian palm markets:
poll calls for Feb palm stocks down 1.4% to 1.73MMT.



Export Developments



Chicago wheat

May Paris wheat futures were down 3.75 at 178.00 euros as of early this morning.




  • Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia, Bulgaria, or Romania, on March 11. 
  • Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat, optional origin, on March 11, valid until March 12, for April
    and/or May shipment depending on origin. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on March 10.  Sep-Oct shipment. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on March 11.  June-FH Aug. shipment. 
  • Japan in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for arrival
    in Japan by Aug 27, on March 11. 
  • Turkey seeks 305,000 tons of wheat on March 11 for late March and/or early shipment. 
  • Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia by March 23.  No purchase was made that closed on February 17. 
  • Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on April 7.  IN a separate tender, they seek 200,000 tons of wheat on
    April 1.  Both are optional origin. 



  • Outside markets remain primary focus




Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst C Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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