From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Tuesday, March 03, 2020 8:20:18 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 03/03/20

PDF attached




selling off as G-7 makes statement that they stand ready combat any significant downturn in economy but takes no specific action at this time.  NASS crush was supportive for SBM. The US$ is higher today and the BRL remains weak.


90,000+ infected and 3,300+ deaths







South America weather outlook might be a little more of a concern today. Argentina will continue to progressively become too dry while a net drying trend impacts some western and southern Brazil locations. Argentina will see excessive heat as well while temperatures
in Brazil are more seasonable. Wet weather will continue in Goias, Minas Gerais and Tocantins. The situation may not be critical enough to move markets in a big manner, but there might be some bullish influence from the weather amidst a huge array of other
market concerns that may counter any influence from the weather.

India’s and China’s winter crop outlooks are still good, and improvement has occurred in recent weeks across parts if Europe. South Africa’s weather has not changed from that of late last week and the U.S. outlook has shifted the greatest rainfall out of the
lower Midwest, northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin for this week and shifted it farther south. The southward shift will lead to delays in early season corn planting.


WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Warming around the world will stimulate earlier than usual winter crop development in China, Europe and the United States. There is no risk of damaging cold, but a close watch for such a threat will be made for later this spring.

Africa dryness remains a concern for the next two weeks. Southern Parts of the Middle East are now drying out, as well. India, meanwhile, is still anticipating very high yields this year and a big crop of wheat. China’s wheat size should expand as well due
to greater winter precipitation than usual. Rain in Australia may improve topsoil moisture for some winter grain production areas, but planting is still a couple of months away. Drought remains in place across most of the nation, despite some rain in the east

weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality.

World Weather Inc. and FI



Ag Calendar


  • Abares
    agriculture outlook conference, Canberra
  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
  • BRF
    4Q19 earnings before market open, Sao Paulo


  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • New
    Zealand commodity price
  • Abares
    agriculture outlook conference
  • CNGOIC’s
    monthly supply/demand report on China soy, corn


  • FAO
    world food price index, 4am
  • Day
    1 of three-Day National Coffee Association USA Annual Convention
  • Intertek
    Malaysia palm oil export data for March 1-5
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports


  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions


  • China
    soybean import volume data

Bloomberg and FI






Soybeans up 1,000




inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

654,097         versus   350000-600000  range

896,221         versus   800000-1100000                range

670,608         versus   500000-800000  range


February selected commodity exports:

February 2020      January 2020      February2019

KG BAG)              2,810,200          2,724,800         3,092,500

OIL (TNS)                6,064,000          4,292,600         3,819,400

(LTR)                  164,200,000        78,100,000       112,000,000

(TNS)                 5,115,700          1,488,300         5,267,200

ORE                       22,100,200         26,787,000        28,925,000

ORANGE JUICE (TNS)      29,000             27,700            22,400

ORANGE JUICE (TNS)  115,100            131,400           194,100

RAW (TNS)                1,119,700          1,415,700         1,011,700

Reuters and FI



USD was higher by 18 points as of 8:00 am CT.   




Higher trade in corn as prices continue to recover from contract lows.  WTI crude was up $0.90 as of 8:15 am CT. 

USDA NASS reported the January corn for ethanol use at 469 million bushels, 1 million below the average trade guess. 

Platts: Mato Grosso corn plantings at 92 percent by Feb 28, above 5-year average of 88%. 

China reported a new ASF case in a wild boar in Hubei. 



South Korea’s MFG bought 131,000 tons of corn, optional origin, at $207.25 and $207.50/ton, for arrival around June 25 and July 3, respectively. 

South Korea’s KFA passed on 68,000 tons of corn. 





Argentina plans to increase meal, oil and soybean taxes by 3 points each, according to Bloomberg. 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s soybean harvest at 40 percent as of February 27, compared to 31 percent week earlier and 52 percent year ago. 

Offshore values are leading CBOT soybean oil flat and meal $1.00 lower.

Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were up 5 euros for nearby soybean oil positions and up around 5 euros for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were 2-3 euros higher. 


China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 134 cents per bushel, unchanged from the previous day, and compares to 126 cents a week ago and negative 35 cents around this time last

Malaysian palm markets:

The European Union reported soybean import licenses since July 1 at 9.241 million tons, below 9.680 million tons a year ago, a 5 percent decrease. European Union soybean meal import licenses are running at
11.762 million tons so far for 2019-20, below 11.783 million tons a year ago. EU palm oil import licenses are running at 3.620 million tons for 2019-20, down from 4.383 million tons a year ago, or down 17 percent.

European Union rapeseed import licenses since July 1 were 4.253 million tons, up 40 percent from 3.034 million tons from the same period a year ago.

USDA NASS reported monthly crush statistics. The US crushed 188.8 million bushels of soybeans in January, a record for any month and 1.7 million above trade expectations.  Soybean meal demand was robust during January as stocks fell to
335,000 short tons from 377,000 at the end of December.  Soybean oil stocks increased to 2.352 billion pounds from 2.134 billion month earlier and was 38 million pounds above the average trade guess. 


Export Developments




US wheat futures are mostly higher led by the higher protein classes.  US winter wheat conditions for selected key US states improved from the previous week. 

USD was higher by 18 points earlier this morning.

Australia’s wheat production for 2020-21 was estimated by ABARES at 21.3 million tons, up from 15.17 million for 2019-20. 

APK-Inform estimated 11 percent Ukraine’s winter grains are in weak condition.  They pegged that area at 800,000 hectares. 

May Paris wheat futures were up 1.75 at 184.75 euros as of early this morning.

The European Union granted export licenses for 174,000 tons of soft wheat exports, bringing cumulative 2019-20 soft wheat export commitments to 19.114 MMT, up from 11.941 million tons committed at this time
last year, a 60 percent increase.  Imports are down 55 percent from year ago at 3.351 million tons.


– The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service in a weekly crop report on Monday rated 43% of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up from 35% a week earlier.

Kansas is the biggest U.S. winter wheat producer. The USDA reported surplus moisture in 16% of Kansas topsoil, down from 17% a week ago.

For Texas, the No. 2 winter wheat state by planted area, the USDA rated 36% of the crop as good to excellent, up from 31% the previous week.

The Texas corn crop was 12% planted, ahead of the state’s five-year average of 6%.

For Oklahoma, the USDA rated 57% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up from 46% a week earlier.



Export Developments.

  • Thailand bought 60,000 (originally in for 240,000 tons) feed wheat at $213/ton c&f for July shipment.
  • Japan seeks 117,389 tons of food wheat late Wednesday. 
  • Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of wheat. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on March 4. 
  • Japan in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for arrival in Japan by July 30, on March 4. 
  • Morocco seeks 354,000 tons of US durum wheat on March 5 for arrival by May 31.
  • Turkey seeks 305,000 tons of wheat on March 11 for late March and/or early shipment. 
  • Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia by March 23.  No purchase was made that closed on February 17. 



  • India’s Jan rice exports fell 12 percent from a year earlier to 908,492 tons due to weak demand for non-basmati from African and Asian countries. 


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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