From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2020 8:06:33 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 01/27/20

PDF attached


fears are driving commodities lower.  CNN has a live update page, along with other major news outlets.





  • Argentina
    weather will be the center of market attention over the coming week to ten days

    • Net
      drying is still advertised by the GFS forecast model in much of the nation, but the European and Canadian Models are not in agreement

      • Both
        the European and Canadian Models suggest some improved opportunity for rain will come along during the weekend and next week

        • The
          rain expected will be erratic, but more beneficial than that advertised by the GFS model which downplays rainfall in the south half of the nation in particular for ten days and perhaps longer
      • Earlier
        this year in a similar setting the European model beat the GFS model numerous times with its greater rainfall forecast and World Weather, Inc. believes predicted rainfall in the next two weeks will be another one of those times
    • Argentina
      will receive some erratic rainfall this week and it will be difficult for a net increase in soil moisture to result

      • Rising
        temperatures and erratic rainfall will accelerate drying rates and raise some crop moisture stress in time
      • Rain
        during the weekend and next week should be better timed offering some important moisture that will not be uniform across the nation, but will help slow drying rates and may improve crop conditions in some areas
  • Argentina’s
    bottom line

    is that rain will be very important over the next couple of weeks to slow drying rates and conserve subsoil moisture so that crop stress does not become overwhelming to plants that are reproducing and filling. Yield potentials might be at risk if rain fails
    to be well distributed over the next two weeks, but World Weather, Inc. believes those areas of crop production risk will be pocketed leaving many crop areas still in favorable condition. The nation’s summer crops will need to be closely monitored over the
    next two weeks because of the erratic rainfall distribution and warm weather that will prevail.


  • Argentina
    was mostly dry and warm during the weekend

    with highs in the 90s Fahrenheit and a couple of extremes near 100 degrees
  • Brazil
    temperatures were more seasonable during the weekend, but western and southern areas were just as dry as those areas in Argentina

    • No
      rain fell in western Mato Grosso or areas southward through most of Mato Grosso do Sul to western and southern Sao Paulo, Santa Catarina, Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul
    • Rain
      was reported in most other areas with significant amounts from eastern Mato Grosso and Tocantins through Goias to the heart of Minas Gerais and immediate neighboring areas where 1.25 to 3.25 inches occurred often with local totals to more than 6.00 inches
      in central Minas Gerais


  • Brazil
    rainfall over the next ten days will be a little light and infrequent in Rio Grande do Sul, but timely and beneficial to most of western and interior southern parts of the nation

    • Rio
      Grande do Sul will get some light rain Wednesday into Thursday with rainfall of 0.20 to 0.75 inch and a few totals over 1.00 inch

      • Most
        other days in the 10-day forecast period will not bring rain to Rio Grande do Sul
      • Rainfall
        of 0.75 to 3.00 inches will occur in other areas with southern Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul seeing the lightest rainfall
    • All
      other areas in Brazil will receive 1.00 to 3.00 inches of rain in the coming ten days with a few totals of 3.00 to 4.00 inches
    • The
      European model forecast generates more rain in Rio Grande do Sul than the GFS and if correct there would not be much serious concern for crops in Rio Grande do Sul – or for that matter in most of Brazil
    • Brazil’s
      bottom line

      still looks very good for most of the nation with timely rainfall and seasonable temperatures over the next two weeks. That will maintain good conditions for high yields and record or near-record production of soybeans. The rain might slow harvesting of early
      soybeans briefly, but farmers will advance with the harvest around the precipitation


World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


Ag Calendar

JAN. 27:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • MARS
    crop bulletin – monthly report on crop conditions in Europe.
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
    China, Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore

JAN. 28:

  • AmSpec,
    Intertek, SGS: Malaysia’s Jan. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports, Kuala Lumpur
    China, Hong Kong

JAN. 29:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am

JAN. 30:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
  • GUS
    Polish pig population data, Warsaw

JAN. 31:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid and received, cattle inventory
  • Paris
    Grain Day conference. Topics include outlook for Black Sea/Europe grains and challenges facing the oilseed market
  • AmSpec,
    Intertek, SGS: Malaysia’s Jan. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports, Kuala Lumpur

Bloomberg and FI


changes in CBOT registrations









Corn futures
lower on fears the virus spreading across China will disrupt feed demand. 

President Trump is expected to sign the USMCA on Wednesday. 



  • Under
    the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters sold 111,252 tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2020-21 marketing year.



CBOT soybean complex is taking a hit on virus fears. 
cases and 80+ perished. 

Brazilian real was weaker at 4.2148.  USD was up 3.  

Ukraine sunflower exports were up 60 percent so far this season to nearly 2.0 million tons, according to APK-Inform. 

Offshore values are leading CBOT soybean oil 18 points lower and meal $1.00 lower.

Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were down 14 euros for nearby soybean oil positions and 10 euros lower for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were unchanged to 4 euros lower. 

China is on holiday until late this week. China cash crush was last 84 cents per bushel. 

Malaysian palm markets:
– no trade

ITS reported palm exports during the Jan 1-25 period at 1.022 million tons, down 1.3 percent from the previous period a month earlier. 

There are reports that India palm oil imports from Malaysia for the month of January could hit a 9-year low. 


Export Developments



In a risk off session, US and Paris wheat futures are lower this morning. 

March Paris wheat futures were down 2.75 at 192.75 euros as of early this morning. 

Last week China bought 150,000 tons of wheat from Australia, which was a surprise to many traders. 

Egypt said they enough wheat reserves through the end of June. 



Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) bought 900,000 tons of animal feed barley at an average price of $224.45/ton.




20,000   Brown Short   China     March 15-31/Gunsan

20,000   Brown Short   China     April 30/Masan

15,556   Brown Short   China     May 31/Donghae

22,222   Brown Medium  U.S.      May 31/Incheon

  • Mauritius
    seeks up to 6,000 tons of long grain white rice on Feb. 3, optional origin, for delivery between May 1 and July 31.



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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