From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2020 8:11:48 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 01/07/20

PDF attached









conditions in many Brazil and Argentina crop areas will be favorable over the next two weeks, although a close watch on the rain distribution is warranted. A few pockets could be a little too dry. Northern Argentina and a few areas in Paraguay and southern
Brazil will be drier biased for a while this week, but relief should come around in time. A greater soaking of rain will be needed. Today’s rain in southwestern Argentina will maintain excellent crop conditions in that region.

Africa summer crop conditions should be largely beneficial over the next couple of weeks. Australia crops will continue hot and too dry for change, although it would not be surprising to see some rain in eastern parts of the nation later this month.

winter crops are in very good condition and should remain that way for the next two weeks. Summer crop harvesting will continue around brief periods of rain.

rapeseed conditions will have potential for improvement in the spring after this week’s storm system impacts the production region. A follow up storm system will see to it the region is plenty moist in the spring.

and the southwestern parts of the CIS will dry out for a while, but winter crops are dormant or semi-dormant and will not be bothered. A boost in precipitation will be needed in the late winter prior to the start of spring growth.

weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality with a slight bearish bias.


crop conditions around the world are either fair to good or improving. Recent moisture in the United States will be good for spring crop development. Snow will develop in the northwestern U.S. Plains before bitter cold conditions evolve in the next week to
ten days.

is no risk of crop threatening cold in Russia, Europe or most of China’s key winter crop production areas for the coming week to ten days. Winter crops are not as well established as they should be in some areas of southeastern Europe, southern Russia or Kazakhstan.
Weekend precipitation in eastern China will improve wheat establishment in the spring.

winter crops are poised to perform quite well this year and rain in Pakistan will improve the outlook there as well. China’s precipitation today and that coming over the next week will improve spring crop development potential.

in northern Africa will be closely monitored with southwestern Morocco the only area at risk of lower production today but drying in northern Morocco and northwestern Algeria will continue for a while.

weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality.

World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI



Ag Calendar

JAN. 7:

  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction

JAN. 8:

  • Conab
    releases 4th estimate for Brazil’s soy, corn crops

JAN. 9:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • United
    Nation’s FAO Food Price Index
  • Australia’s
    Bureau of Meteorology releases climate statement
  • New
    Zealand commodity price

JAN. 10:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
  • Malaysia
    end-2019 palm oil stocks, production, export numbers; Jan. 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, Intertek and SGS
  • U.S.
    winter wheat seeding forecast
  • USDA
    quarterly wheat, barley, corn, soybean stocks, noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm

Bloomberg and FI







inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

345,109     versus  300000-500000           range

550,930     versus  400000-600000           range

963,830     versus  500000-1000000         range


Commitment of Traders








Trade Balance (USD) Nov: -43.1B (est -43.7B ; prevR -46.9B ; prev -$47.2B)

Good Trade Balance (USD) Nov:  -62.99B (prev -63.19B)




Corn futures are lower on Tuesday as traders shore up positions ahead of the reports due out this week. 

Baltic Dry Index fell another 6.3 percent or 53 points to 791.

Gold was down about $1.20 as of 7:23 am CT and Dow futures up 14 points. 

USD was 15 points higher as of 7:23 am CT and WTI down 49. 

Corn and Soybean Advisory: 2019/20 Brazil Corn Estimate lowered 1.0 mt to 101.0 Million Tons

USDA US corn export inspections as of January 02, 2020 were 550,930 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 408,946 tons previous week and compares to 501,565 tons year ago. Major countries included
Mexico for 257,383 tons, Colombia for 156,462 tons, and Japan for 89,779 tons.






lower in a risk off session.  USDA is set to release their annual crop production report on Friday.  Cash market seems to be a little weak and USD is higher. 

Corn and Soybean Advisory: 2019/20 Brazil Soybean Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 122.0 Million

Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were unchanged for nearby soybean oil positions and 1 euro lower for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were mostly unchanged. 

Offshore values are leading CBOT soybean oil 49 points higher and meal $1.30 lower.  

China cash crush was last 139 cents per bushel, compared to 145 on Friday and 24 cents year ago. 


Malaysian palm markets:

A group in India is campaigning palm oil end users to stop importing palm oil from Malaysia. 

USDA US soybean export inspections as of January 02, 2020 were 963,830 tons, high end a range of trade expectations, below 991,801 tons previous week and compares to 682,518 tons year ago. Major countries
included China Main for 353,715 tons, Egypt for 128,501 tons, and Indonesia for 93,074 tons.  Crop year to date (September – January 3) inspections for soybeans are running near 22.2 million tons, above 17.5 million tons year ago and 29.8 million tons during
the same period in 2017-18.  If you take out China, shipments to other countries fell 26 percent from the same period year earlier.  Shipments to China total 9.6 million tons, up from 475,000 year ago and below 20.5 million tons during the same period in 2017-18. 


Export Developments



US wheat futures
lower on lack of fresh news despite traders looking for a lower 2020 US winter wheat area.   

March Paris wheat futures earlier were unchanged at 188.25 euros as of early this morning.

USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of January 02, 2020 were 345,109 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 312,090 tons previous week and compares to 263,918 tons year ago. Major countries
included Nigeria for 74,002 tons, Philippines for 64,255 tons, and Malaysia for 54,209 tons.



  • Results
    are awaited on Ethiopia in for 80,000 tons of durum wheat and another 75,000 tons of soft wheat.
  • Morocco seeks to import about 354,000
    tons of US durum wheat on January 9 for arrival by May 31.
  • Mauritius seeks 95,000 tons of optional
    origin wheat flour on Jan. 10, 2020, for shipment between July 1, 2020, and June 20, 2021. 
  • Turkey seeks 550,000 tons of red milling
    wheat on January 14, minimum protein content of 13.5% for January 21-February 15 shipment. 
  • Turkey seeks 100,000
    tons of durum wheat on January 14 for Jan 25-Feb 25 shipment.

Syria seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat from Russia on January 20, 2020. 



Details of
the new tender are as follows:


Brown Medium    Sept.1-Oct.31,2020/Busan

Brown Medium    Sept.1-Oct.31,2020/Gwangyang



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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