From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Monday, January 06, 2020 8:11:45 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 01/06/20

PDF attached




will be out later today







conditions in many Brazil and Argentina crop areas will be favorable over the next two weeks, although a close watch on the rain distribution is warranted. A few pockets could be a little too dry. Northern Argentina and a few areas in Paraguay and southern
Brazil will be drier biased for a while this week, but relief should come around in time. A greater soaking of rain will be needed. Today’s rain in southwestern Argentina will maintain excellent crop conditions in that region.

Africa summer crop conditions should be largely beneficial over the next couple of weeks. Australia crops will continue hot and too dry for change, although it would not be surprising to see some rain in eastern parts of the nation later this month.

winter crops are in very good condition and should remain that way for the next two weeks. Summer crop harvesting will continue around brief periods of rain.

rapeseed conditions will have potential for improvement in the spring after this week’s storm system impacts the production region. A follow up storm system will see to it the region is plenty moist in the spring.

and the southwestern parts of the CIS will dry out for a while, but winter crops are dormant or semi-dormant and will not be bothered. A boost in precipitation will be needed in the late winter prior to the start of spring growth.

weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality with a slight bearish bias.


crop conditions around the world are either fair to good or improving. Recent moisture in the United States will be good for spring crop development. Snow will develop in the northwestern U.S. Plains before bitter cold conditions evolve in the next week to
ten days.

is no risk of crop threatening cold in Russia, Europe or most of China’s key winter crop production areas for the coming week to ten days. Winter crops are not as well established as they should be in some areas of southeastern Europe, southern Russia or Kazakhstan.
Weekend precipitation in eastern China will improve wheat establishment in the spring.

winter crops are poised to perform quite well this year and rain in Pakistan will improve the outlook there as well. China’s precipitation today and that coming over the next week will improve spring crop development potential.

in northern Africa will be closely monitored with southwestern Morocco the only area at risk of lower production today but drying in northern Morocco and northwestern Algeria will continue for a while.

weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality.

World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


World Weather Inc. and FI


Ag Calendar

JAN. 6:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • CFTC
    COT – after the close
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals

JAN. 7:

  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction

JAN. 8:

  • Conab
    releases 4th estimate for Brazil’s soy, corn crops

JAN. 9:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • United
    Nation’s FAO Food Price Index
  • Australia’s
    Bureau of Meteorology releases climate statement
  • New
    Zealand commodity price

JAN. 10:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
  • Malaysia
    end-2019 palm oil stocks, production, export numbers; Jan. 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, Intertek and SGS
  • U.S.
    winter wheat seeding forecast
  • USDA
    quarterly wheat, barley, corn, soybean stocks, noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm

Bloomberg and FI


estimates for Jan 10 reports (uses Bloomberg template)

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NY Fed Accepts $76.90Bln Of $76.90Bln In Bids At O/N Repo Operation



Corn futures are lower on uncertainty over Middle East tensions. 

Brazil and Argentina saw good rain over the weekend but not all areas were wet. Northern Argentina dried down along with southern Brazil. 

Baltic Dry Index fell another 7 percent or 63 points to 844.

Gold was up about $23 as of 7:50 pm CT and Dow futures down 184 points. 

USD was 23 points lower as of 7:50 pm CT and WTI up 70 cents. 


10 reports.  For the upcoming USDA S&D and production update, we are assuming a 400,000 lower US corn planted area than USDA’s October estimate, and for the harvested area to decline 511,000 acres. Our 2019 US corn yield is 0.2 bushel higher than USDA, resulting
in a 13.594 billion production estimate, 67 million below current USDA.  Our first quarter feed estimate is 2.280 billion bushels, about 18 million above our calculated Q1 2018 corn for feed use. 
Our working December 1 corn ending stocks is 11.489 billion bushels, well below 11.665 billion University of Ill projected. 
2019-20 US ending stocks estimate is 1.862 billion bushels, with a bias for it to go lower. USDA is currently at 1.910 billion bushels. Our estimate for USDA’s January update is 1.848 billion bushels, 62 million below December. 





backing off on lack of fundamental news, Middle East tensions and sharply lower palm oil weighing on US soybean oil.  Meal was up a touch on product spreading.  Malaysia plans to reinstate their palm export duty for crude palm oil and the market dropped 74
MYR despite traders seeing a decline in end of December palm oil stocks.

China Plans to Send Team to U.S. for Jan. 15 Deal Signing 

Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were unchanged for nearby soybean oil positions and 5 euros higher for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were unchanged to 3 euros lower. 

Offshore values are leading CBOT soybean oil 16 points higher and meal $2.00 higher.  

China cash crush was last 139cents per bushel, compared to 145 on Friday and 24 cents year ago. 


3-year high: Malaysian palm markets:


Export Developments



US wheat futures
lower on technical selling and lack of fresh news. 

March Paris wheat futures earlier were down 0.25 at 188.25 euros as of early this morning.




Syria seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat from Russia on January 20, 2020. 



Details of the new tender
are as follows:


        20,000   Brown Medium   

        10,764   Brown Medium   



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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