From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Monday, February 17, 2020 5:22:18 PM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Grain Market Update 02/17/20

PDF attached includes from notes over the US Monday holiday



Truck strikes in Brazil are disrupting port loadings, especially at Santos.  Locust swarms with a 40-mile reach (width) that have been destroying farm crops Africa could now threaten Southwest Asian countries.  Coronavirus continues to hit selected markets, such and India chicken demand and Indonesia palm export shipments to China. 


Bloomberg Ag Calendar


  • Australian crop report from Abares, Canberra
  • USDA weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • New Zealand global dairy trade auction


  • EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • EARNINGS: Marfrig


  • USDA Agricultural Outlook – corn, wheat, soy, cotton acreage, 8:20am
  • USDA milk, read meat production, 3pm
  • Malaysia’s Feb. 1-20 palm oil exports data
  • EARNINGS: Wilmar


  • USDA outlook — corn, soy, wheat cotton end-stockpiles
  • USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
  • ICE Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S. Cattle on Feed, 3pm
  • EARNINGS: Pilgrim’s Pride

Source: Bloomberg and FI


CBOT registrations

·         No changes






·         South Korea’s NOFI bought 66,000 tons of optional origin corn at $212.30/ton c&f for arrival around May 20. 

·         General Administration of Customs: China removed import restrictions on U.S. poultry and poultry products that were imposed in 2013, 2014 and 2015.  (Bloomberg)

·         Bulgaria reported a bird flu outbreak (N5N8) at a duck farm in the southern part of the country. 

·         India officials mentioned demand for chicken dropped over the past three weeks after social media reports speculated the coronavirus was thought to be spread through chickens. 

·         Zimbabwe plans to import Uganda to make up for a shortfall in consumption. 


Soybean complex.

  • Egypt’s GASC seeks 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil on Thursday for arrival April 10-30. 

·         China’s central bank on Monday lowered a key interest rate (one year rate) and injected more liquidity into the system.

·         Bloomberg noted China was considering US agriculture buying by early March.  They lifted import restriction on US poultry and poultry products. 

  • NOPA will issue its US January crush today. Reuters trade average is 173.7 million bushels, down from 174.8 in December.  End of Jan. stocks are seen at 1.782 billion pounds, above 1.757 billion at the end of December 2019. 

  • Ukraine sunflower exports since August are running at 2.225 million tons, up 61 percent yoy, according to APK Inform. 
  • Cargo surveyor SGS reported month to date February 15 Malaysian palm exports at 529,191 tons, 56,060 tons below the same period a month ago or down 9.6%, and 144,938 tons below the same period a year ago or down 21.5%.  Shipments to the EU were 139,696 tons (167.6k Jan 1-15) and China 108,150 tons (68.3k Jan 1-15). 
  • AmSpec reported 1-15 Feb exports of palm oil at 511,629 tons, down from 569,260 tons during Jan 1-15.     ITS was at 541,444 tons, down 6.7% from 580,421 tons in FH Jan.



  • Brazilian truck strike on Monday over high diesel prices crippled port operations in Santos. 
  • Major Brazilian ports were scheduled to ship 8.66 million tons of soybeans as of Feb. 14, up from 8.58 million tons a week earlier – Williams via Bloomberg.
  • AgRural estimated the 2019-20 Brazil soybean production at 125.6 million tons, upward revised from 123.9 million tons in January.  21 percent of the crop had been collected, below 36 percent a year ago and near its 5-year average. 
  • Soybean and Corn Advisory:  increased 2019-20 Brazil soybean crop by 1 million tons to 125 million tons.  Argentina was increased 1 million tons to 54 million. 
  • Last week Abiove estimated the Brazil soybean crop at 123.7 million tons, up from 122.8 previously.  Exports were seen at 73.5 million tons, down from 75 million projected in January.  They look for the crush to end up near 44.5 million tons, up 500,000 from their January projection.  Separately, Agroconsult is at 126.3 million tons. 
  • Brazil’s economic policy manager estimated a long-term coronavirus outbreak could have an economic impact on Brazil, but maintained a 2.4 percent growth for 2020. 
  • Soybean and Corn Advisory:  Estimated the Argentina corn crop at 49.0 million tons, up 1.5 million, and left Brazil unchanged at 100.0 million tons.


University of IL: 2020 Soybean Price Prospects Hubbs, T. "2020 Soybean Price Prospects." farmdoc daily (10):29,  Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, February 17, 2020.




·         ABARES: Australia 2019-20 wheat crop fell to 15.17 million tons, down from 15.85 million tons at the end of 2019, but still above some private estimates.  15.17 million tons puts the crop lowest in 12 years. 

·         March Paris wheat was unchanged on Monday. 

·         Ukraine grain exports are running at 38.4 million tons, up 24.5 percent from the same period a year ago, according to the Ministry of Economic Development.  State statistical service office at the end of the year pegged the Ukraine grain crop at 75.1 million tons. 

·         APK-Inform has the Ukraine grain crop at 75.08 million tons. 

·         Russian 12.5 percent protein wheat prices fell to $220/ton, down $6 from the previous week, according to SovEcon.  IKAR showed a $3/ton decrease to $192.00/ton. 





Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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