From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2020 11:53:59 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Grain Market Snapshot 03/10/20

PDF attached


USDA released it March report update 


Initial reaction:

Bearish soybeans and neutral corn and wheat.  USDA took Brazil and Argentina soybean production up by one million tons each. 


USDA NASS and OCE executive summaries



  • The March report was perceived to be slightly bearish in that USDA raised global soybean and corn stocks higher.  With little changes to go on, traders should move forward monitoring US export developments and currency fluctuations. 
  • The upward revision to Argentina and Brazil soybean production by one million tons each could limit upside potential for the soybean complex. 
  • US soybean stocks were estimated at 425 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month and near trade expectations. 
  • USDA raised their soybean for seed estimate by 3 million bushels to 99 million, up from 88 million last year.  This is an indication USDA looks for a large US soybean area for 2020 plantings. 



·         USDA estimated US corn stocks at 1.892 billion bushels, unchanged from the previous month. 


·         USDA estimated US wheat stocks at 940 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month. 



Price outlook: (unchanged from Monday)

  • May soybeans are seen in a wide $8.65-$9.25 range.
  • May meal is seen in a $285 to $320 range
  • May soybean oil range is 26.50 to 31.00
  • CBOT May is seen in a $3.45 and $4.00 range. 

·        CBOT Chicago May wheat is seen in a $4.90-$5.50 range

·        CBOT KC May wheat is seen in a $4.25-$4.75 range

·        MN May wheat is seen in a $4.95-$5.40 range




Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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